Month: January 2021
Stevenson’s army, January 27
– Relations with Palestinians restored.
– New SecState Blinken plans reviews.-SecDef Austin reviews Afghan withdrawals.
– US looks for new Saudi bases.
-Axios reports on a tech working group report on countering China’s technology.
– Atlantic sees problems ahead for Space Force.
– AU Prof has good ideas for how the cyber czar should operate.
– FP lists its recent articles by new Biden officials, potential guide to how they’ll act in office.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Pakistan is about more than Afghanistan and India
The incoming Biden administration faces many challenges in West/South Asia, but also has an opportunity to strengthen relations with Pakistan, which could deepen peace to the region. The Wilson Center January 21 hosted a one-on-one discussion between Michael Kugelman, the Asia Program Deputy Director, and Moeed Yusuf, the current Pakistani National Security Advisor, on the future of US-Pakistan relations.
Breaking through lenses
According to Yusuf, the United States needs to stop categorizing the relationship with Pakistan through different lenses. Previous administrations have approached Pakistan with a focus on Afghanistan and India, letting those relationships guide US-Pakistan relations. This is neither beneficial nor prudent. Pakistan is a primary actor in countering terrorism in Afghanistan, but Pakistan is also a potentially strong ally economically and geopolitically.
Pakistan has been seen mainly through the prism of Afghanistan. The incoming Biden administration should capitalize on a fresh start. While Afghanistan remains a priority for both Pakistan and the United States, Islamabad and Washington also need to build stronger bilateral relations. Pakistan is able to provide counterterrorism support, but the relationship with the US needs to be expanded far beyond that. There needs to be a bilateral relationship that transcends conflict, various regional other partnerships, and geopolitical dynamics.
Pakistan’s troublesome neighbors
The relationship that the United States has with Pakistan’s neighbors can be a building block with Pakistan, but should not be seen as the core of the relationship.
As the United States continues to combat terrorism in Afghanistan, and more broadly throughout the region, Pakistan should be identified as a key facilitator of peace talks in bringing the relevant actors to the negotiating table, in partnership with the US. Similarly, India remains the priority issue in Pakistan’s foreign policy, but Islamabad wants the US to deal with India and Pakistan separately and on their own merits. If the United States wants a stronger relationship with India, to counter a rising China, there could be repercussions for the relationship with Pakistan.
Beyond business as usual
Business as usual, or a continuation of the policies of the Trump administration, is illogical. The tumultuous relations the United States has had with Pakistan over the last four years are no longer pertinent in today’s vastly different geopolitical environment. Islamabad is prioritizing an economic security paradigm that includes combatting terrorism in neighboring countries as well as internally, enabling Pakistan to engage in new economic opportunities within and beyond its borders. The economic partnerships that Pakistan envisages are rooted in cooperation and investment, rather than aid. Creating long-term development within Pakistan would benefit the United States.
There are many opportunities for the Biden administration to build stronger relations with Pakistan, but the new approach should recognize that Pakistan is more than a partner in US Afghanistan policy. The prospects of economic growth, geopolitical strategy, and regional peace are just a few of the many factors that the US must consider when building stronger relations with Pakistan.
To watch the event in full, please click here. And here:
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Stevenson’s army, January 26
– McConnell backs down on filibuster demand; Senate moves to get organized.
– Defense News says Eisenhower’s military-industrial-[congressional] complex is still in place.
And as a reader of broadsheet newspapers, I was intrigued by this report on typography.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 25
NYT sees global links of far-right groups.
NYT also reports on China’s challenge to US in space. But their story is so long, they added a “takeaways” summary.
But US still sees a role for B52s.
WSJ notes China surpassed US in FDI last year.
Politico says OMB was “broken” by Trump politics.
Some Democrats want to pass stimulus bill by filibuster-proof reconciliation process. Punchbowl notes that takes a long time, starting with a budget resolution, first in 3 years. CRS has a new backgrounder.
Jim Fallows assesses the Biden inaugural address.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 24
-WaPo notes that the Senate is still stymied by a failure to agree on new organizing resolution.
-NPR interviewed former Senate staffer Adam Jentleson about his new book condemning the filibuster. [Many of you know that I support the filibuster for strategic and tactical reasons, but I want to keep it safe, legal, and rare — by making it harder to start and prolong. I suggest filibuster opponents, now mostly Democrats, consider that the loss of just one Democratic Senator could, overnight, permit majoritarian rule by the GOP.]
WSJ now confirms what NYT and WaPo also learned — that Trump was narrowly stopped from using Justice to overturn the election results.
Vanity Fair reports Trump’s pressure on the acting SecDef in the final days.
TR does a FONOP.
I’ve long viewed Sen. Tom Cotton [R-Ark.] as Dean Acheson did Sen. Robert Taft [GOP leader in early 1950s]: “He has a brilliant mind, until he makes it up.” It seems that Cotton gilded his military resume.
NYT notes we have a serious GPS vulnerability problem.
Good read: I’ve just finished Peter Westwick’s fascinating study of the history of stealth technology. Like Paul Kennedy’s book on the problem-solving engineers of WW2, Westwick shows how middle-level technicians brainstormed, bargained, and compromised over issues and largely succeeded. I’ve also never seen a better case for funding alternate R&D programs instead of settling on a sole source.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | January 25-29
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Reflections on Mass Protests & Uprisings in the Arab World, Part 1 | January 25, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Arab Studies Institute | Register Here
December 17, 2020 marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia. Beginning in 2011, mass uprisings swept North Africa and the Middle East, spreading from the shores of Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and the Eastern Province of the Arabian Peninsula. A “second wave” of mass protests and uprisings manifested during 2019 in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The persistence of demands for popular sovereignty even in the face of re-entrenched authoritarianism, imperial intervention, and civil strife is a critical chapter in regional and global history. In an effort to mark, interrogate, and reflect on the Arab uprisings, we launch a yearlong set of events, reflections, and conversations. We hope to produce resources for educators, researchers, students, and journalists to understand the last decade of political upheaval historically and in the lived present. Over the past decade, a plethora of events, texts, and artistic and cultural productions have navigated the last decade’s spectrum of affective and material registers. We hope to contribute to these efforts through a historically grounded, theoretically rigorous approach that collaboratively interrogates the multiple questions the Arab uprisings continue to pose.
Speakers:
Amaney Jamal: Professor of Politics, Princeton University
Asli Bali: Professor of Law, UCLA
Rochelle Davis: Director, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Ahmad Dallal: Dean, Georgetown School of Foreign Service, Qatar
Ziad Abu-Rish: American Druze Foundation Fellow, Georgetown University
Lina Abou Habib: MENA Advisor, Global Fund for Women
Adam Hanieh: Professor, SOAS University of London
Rashid Khalidi: Professor, Columbia University
Bassam Haddad (Moderator): Director, Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, George Mason University
2. Defense Project Series: Dr. Peter Mansoor discusses, “How cultural biases influence success or failure in war” | January 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Join us as Dr. Pete Mansoor Mason Chair of Military History, Ohio State University, discusses the influence of culture on US and international militaries and the resulting impact on war strategies and the prospects for success. The executive officer to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge in 2007-08, Pete Mansoor will talk about how biases and unstated assumptions impact the ability of militaries around the world to achieve success in conflicts. This topic has become increasingly important in the past two decades.
Speakers:
Peter Mansoor: Mason Chair of Military History, The Ohio State University
3. Africa-Europe Relations in 2021 | January 26, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Europe’s Africa engagement is in the process of evolution. The ties between Africa and Europe are many. Forged through proximate geography and shared history there is much to draw upon in knitting the two together going forward. But some points of mutual benefit are as yet not fully realized as such, other areas are misinterpreted as problems rather than challenges with upside benefit if gripped adroitly.
This roundtable will focus on the state of the Africa-Europe relationship with its challenges and opportunities, and the role that Southern Europe could play in the process.
The question underpinning the Session is: Why shouldn’t the Africa/Europe relationship grow to be amongst the most important for each continent? What needs to occur to realise that vision?
The virtual roundtable will be held in English on the record with mandatory registration in advance.
Speakers:
Francisco André: Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Portugal
Lora Borissova: Senior Expert in the Cabinet of EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen
Emanuela Del Re: Deputy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy
Theodore Murphy: Director, Africa Programme, ECFR
Arturo Varvelli (Moderator): Head, ECFR Rome
4. Defending the Seas: Gray-Zone Threats in the Maritime Domain | January 26, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute| Register Here
Most of the world’s trade — from electronics to fruit — travels by sea. The disruption of even a few sea-borne supply lines would immediately harm countries. The same goes for the roughly 300 undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic. Civilian activity’s reliance on the world’s oceans creates considerable opportunities for gray-zone aggression, the hostile acts between war and peace.
What can NATO member states and partners do to protect themselves from maritime gray-zone threats? Please join AEI’s Elisabeth Braw for a panel discussion on the importance of critical maritime infrastructure and how states can partner with civil societies to protect the seas from gray-zone threats.
Speakers:
Elisabeth Braw (Moderator): Resident Fellow, AEI
Andrew Lewis: Commander, Second Fleet, US Navy
Ewa Skoog Haslum: Chief, Royal Swedish Navy
5. How the Preservation of Afghan Culture Can Support Peace | January 27, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Afghanistan has made enormous economic, political, and social progress in the last 20 years. Often underappreciated, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism should play an important role in ongoing peace efforts as they are important for the overall prosperity and economic and societal growth. Given the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001 and other tragedies with longer term cultural, economic, and societal implications, it is appropriate that civil society, culture, and creative economies be a part of the ongoing peace negotiations set to determine the future of Afghanistan.
As we know from other countries, such as Vietnam or Cambodia, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism can play an important role in post-conflict economic recovery, providing jobs and livelihoods. It can also contribute to a positive national identity and pride. The proper management and preservation of a nation’s cultural treasures are essential for protecting minority rights, improving environmental protection, as well as strengthening communities in their sense of belonging and ownership, creating lasting and sustainable avenues for growth and development, and over time a more inclusive national narrative. Learn about the heritage of Afghanistan, efforts that have been taken to preserve and promote it, cultural heritage management as part of economic policy, reconciliation, cultural diplomacy, tourism, the benefits around supporting the creative economy, and learn about the role of culture in attaining peace.
Speakers:
Daniel F. Runde (Moderator): Senior Vice President, CSIS
Irina Bokova: Board Member, ARCH International
Luis Monreal: General Manager, Aga Khan Trust for Culture
Adela Raz: Afghanistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations
6. Imagining Future Airwars: What Turkish Successes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya Might Foreshadow | January 28, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the last year, Turkey has pioneered novel utilizations of existing military technologies to yield highly effective drone relays, aerial reconnaissance methodologies, and multilayered air defense systems. In both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, these innovations enabled the Turkish-backed side to reverse the initial tide of war. This Zoom event seeks to examine how these developments in the use of drones, anti-aircraft systems, and counter anti-aircraft technologies illuminate the shifting balance of power in Eurasia and Africa in 2021, and beyond.
Drawing on The Middle East Institute (MEI)’s recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli,” a diverse panel of experts will explore these issues and their possible implications on theatres as diverse as Ukraine, Yemen, the Arabian Gulf, the Sahel, and Somalia. We will also opine on how the US, EU, and NATO should be preparing for these new forms of aerial warfare.
Speakers:
Wolfgang Pusztai: Security and policy analyst; former Austrian Defense Attaché to Libya
Lieutenant General Michael Nagata: Distinguished senior fellow on National Security, MEI; former head, SOCCENT
Kitty Harvey: Former Naval Intelligence Officer; forthcoming book on Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Whitney Grespin: Visiting scholar, George Washington University; former advisor, Somali Ministry of Defense
Jason Pack (Moderator): President, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
7. The complexities of unraveling US sanctions and returning to the JCPOA | January 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The January 20 inauguration of President Joe Biden has raised expectations for a quick return to compliance by both the United States and Iran to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden administration officials have promised to rejoin the JCPOA if Iran returns to strict compliance with the agreement, but won’t be as simple as rolling back all sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.
The mosaic of new sanctions the Trump administration levied on Iran includes hundreds of new specific targets and new sectors, both primary and secondary. In “Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal: Not So Easy,” author Brian O’Toole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, defines several distinct buckets for the various sanctions, and explains how the Biden administration might choose to address each bucket.
The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative and GeoEconomics Center invite you to a discussion of this paper and the prospects for US diplomacy with Iran under the Biden administration. The discussion will feature the author alongside Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, Kenneth Katzman, senior analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, and Ali Vaez, Middle East fellow, Iran project director and senior advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group, and moderated by Ms. Barbara Slavin, director, Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Speakers:
Kelsey Davenport: Director, Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Kenneth Katzman: Senior Analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf, Congressional Research Service
Brian O’Toole: Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council
Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor to the President, International Crisis Group
Barbara Slavin (Moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
8. Arab Views on Great Power Competition: Unpacking Arab Barometer Surveys | January 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The latest cycle of Arab Barometer, survey’s polled local opinion of great power (Russia, China, USA) foreign policy in the MENA region. The Middle East has been a significant arena for all three powers in recent years, and foreign policy analysts expect this to be true for years to come. Meanwhile, countries in the region will continue to be caught in the middle of foreign interests and shifting alliances between local states.
Join us for a discussion and presentation of the results of the latest wave, and a panel of Wilson experts weigh in on the significance for local policy and global actors alike.
Speakers:
Lucille Green: Schwartzman Scholar, Tsinghua University
Michael Robbins: Director, Arab Barometer
Asher Orkaby: Fellow; Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Marissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program
9. The South Asian Security Landscape | January 28, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
South Asian Voices Visiting Fellows Asma Khalid, Chirayu Thakkar, Fizza Batool, and Saurav Sarkar present their research and policy recommendations on some of the subcontinent’s most pertinent strategic issues. These presentations are the result of a year-long fellowship with the Stimson Center South Asia Program. Fellows will examine the changing deterrence landscape in South Asia, U.S.-India cooperation in multilateral institutions, the role of Pakistani political parties in the Afghanistan peace process, and the potential impact of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) on intra-Afghan negotiations.
Speakers:
Asma Khalid: Research Associate, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research
Chirayu Thakkar: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, National University of Singapore
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, University of Karachi
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies
Brigitta Schuchert (Moderator): Research Associate and Managing Editor of South Asian Voices, Stimson Center
10. The Future of Democracy in Asia | January 29, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Asia represents a critical frontier for democratic governance that will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Democratic states in the region face increasing strain from an interconnected set of challenges across political, economic, and cultural dynamics. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about American strategy, the implications of emerging technologies, and support for illiberal populism and authoritarianism by policymakers and foreign actors have tested democratic norms in the region.
On Friday, January 29, as part of the initiative on Democracy in Asia, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host an event examining the health of democracy in Asia. Following opening remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Taiwan Digital Minister Audrey Tang will deliver a pre-recorded keynote address and respond to questions. A moderated panel with regional experts and scholars will then explore the ongoing intraregional challenges and trends affecting democratic governments and institutions across the Indo-Pacific. Following the conversation, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
John Allen: President, Brookings Institution
Audrey Tang: Digital Minister of Taiwan
Ryan Hass (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Richard C. Bush: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Maiko Ichihara: Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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