Month: January 2021
Drama in Russia too: Navalny takes on Putin
I haven’t finished watching this, but already in the first few minutes it is clear how courageous Alexei Navalny is to publish this video as he was detained by the Russian authorities after recovering from their attempt to murder him. The drama isn’t over. How will Putin react? Will Navalny survive? Will he rouse Russians against Putin’s abuses? Navalny is calling for Russia-wide demonstrations Saturday:
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Changing of the guard: Montenegro and the US
Biljana Jovićević of Antenna M asked me some questions yesterday, prompted by a previous interview where I was cited as having praised Dritan Abazovic, the current deputy prime minister of Montenegro. I replied:
Q: Having in mind your respective field of expertise I am quite sure that you are familiar with the current political situation in Montenegro. Could you please be so kind to give us your assessment of new unfolding events in Montenegro in the last few months?
A: My sense is that pro-Russian and pro-Serbia forces dominate the new Montenegro government. Decision-making roles have gone predominantly to ethnonationalists, including in the security sector. The Serbian Orthodox Church is pleased and has reason to be. There is no sign of a technocratic government.
Q: In your recent statement for a Kosovo media you have said that you would like to see in Kosovo a civic option something like Montenegrin URA lead by now VP Dritan Abazović, but that is not possible because of the mostly ethnic segregation. Do you believe that URA and Mr. Abazović currently plays a constructive role in Montenegro society–which is seen by many now–as an enabler of the extreme right wing, clerical Government?
Q: I said I would like to see Kosovo with a civic option. The interviewer mentioned URA. I did not. URA has not fulfilled promises to insist on a truly technocratic government, to restrain ethnonationalist forces, and to bring minorities into the coalition. I don’t see URA as successful in fulfilling the role of a civic option.
A: Without any doubt Montenegro for a long time needed changes and reform, most of all to fight against corruption, nepotism and cronyism. But new right wing government, and let’s not forget with pro-Russian orientation–supported by URA, certainly is not an expert government. For the critics–what they show up until now is the same pattern of behavior as their predecessors regarding nepotism and cronyism. And apart from that they are in especially fast mode of implementing Serbian nationalist agenda in Montenegro. Do you believe that this kind of changes can bring Montenegro closer to the EU ?
A: No. Montenegro’s current course will slow its progress toward the EU as well as raise doubts within NATO whether Podgorica can be trusted.
Q: President -elect Biden, VP Harris and his administration will take the oath tomorrow–hopefully if the US manage to escape any dramatic or scary scenery. In that regard I have few more questions for you: having in mind the scale of a crisis that we are witnessing in the US and difficult job in front on Biden administration, when is it realistic to expect for them to become more engaged on Balkans and in which direction?
A: It will be months before the people concerned with the Balkans are put in place and the Europeans are consulted on the way forward. I would advise patience.
Q: Hardly that in this unprecedented time in the US Balkans can be among priorities, but Mr. Biden’s nominees for the State Department are people with great knowledge about this part of the world, so what should be their first steps on Balkans in your opinion?
A: I hope they will first consult with the Europeans and develop a common, agreed platform for the Balkans. When Brussels and Washington act in unison, good things happen. Biden will prefer that to Trump’s unilateralist approach.
Q: I had followed your hearing last month in the House committee for foreign relations, you were there with the Secretary Albright and with Mr. Bugajski and you offered recommendations for Balkans. Although focus was on Kosovo and Bosnia, much of the talk was about Serbia as well. But you had barely mentioned Montenegro and if I remember correctly only you mentioned that like in Bosnia and Kosovo–Serbia now trying to destabilize and Montenegro–but that was all. I was quite surprised.
A: I said on that occasion what I thought was most important: Belgrade is doing things to destabilize Montenegro. I have no problem with an opposition coming to power, but I would hope to see a pro-NATO, pro-EU government with the support of minorities.
Q: And in the and – after everything that has happened in the US in last four years (with impact on the whole world) and as we are approaching possible culmination with right wing white nationalist who are threatening with riot in all 50 states–what is your take about rising right wing parties and fringes groups all around world, their infiltrations in mainstream and consequence that we are facing? If the US is barely dealing with it, what can we expect in places like Balkans? How to fight back ?
A: We are all going to be called upon to defend democracy from right wing extremists and ethnonationalists who think they should be privileged to govern. The real possibility of alternation in power is essential to democracy, but if the alternation brings to power people who are anti-democratic, that is a big problem.
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Bid farewell to the treasons of Trump
It’s been hard, but we’ve almost made it to the other side. Now comes a time for rebuilding, or in Biden terms building back better.
Domestic issues will take first priority: the epidemic, the economy, social cleavages. Biden will need to get a lot more needles into arms, a lot more jobs returned and created, a lot of injustices to black and brown people, immigrants, women, college students, and LGBTQ people rectified. Trump’s white supremacist and 2nd Amendment supporters need to know that LAW AND ORDER applies to them as well as to everyone else. Successful prosecution of the January 6 insurrectionists is critical, including an eventual conviction of Trump in the Senate.
Current Majority Leader McConnell is not only open to that possibility but has blamed Trump for provoking the January 6 insurrection:
The mob was fed lies.
This is important, as it opens the a possibility of purging Trumpism from the Republican Party and eventually also from the Senate and House. Remnants will persist, but American politics will return to a much better place if Republicans and Democrats once again come to share a common factual basis rather than being distracted constantly by Trump’s lies.
International issues will be in capable hands at the State Department, National Security Council, and the Defense Department. But they can’t do everything at once. The early moves have been telegraphed: re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (hard) and the Paris climate agreement (easy) as well as an effort to negotiate with Russia extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. But the enemy also gets a vote on priorities. Surprise challenges could come from North Korea, China, or Islamist extremists. Those should not distract the Bidenists from their chosen path: to restore American leadership on a multilateral basis and make the world order more rules-based than it has been for the last four years.
My own focus is on what this means for the Balkans and the Middle East.
In the Balkans it is clear: Washington needs to develop a common vision with the European Union and its member states, then implement it with vigor to stem the tide of Russian and Chinese influence and hasten the day when the countries of the region will all qualify for accession to the EU.
In the Middle East, the way forward is far less clear, because the region lacks a clear direction and American interest has declined. I might prefer that the US favor democracy and human rights, but the fact is there are few Middle East countries in which we’ll find much prospect of either. The trick will be cooperating with autocratic friends (read Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and others) without encouraging their human rights abuses. Biden is already committed, as I understand it, to ending US support for the war in Yemen, which will displease Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Israel/Palestine equation will be particularly difficult to solve, as Trump has intentionally lessened the prospects for the two-state solution America has favored. Biden won’t want to reverse the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and the so-called Abrahamic accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain he welcomed. But he could tilt in favor of the Palestinians by renewing US contributions to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and re-establishing a consulate in East Jerusalem, making it clear it will become an embassy once a Palestinian state is formed and recognized.
The world will be watching. Expectations of Biden are high. Disappointments and failures are inevitable, but I do hope America can return to its proper role as a leader in the democratic world!
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Stevenson’s army, January 19
Several hearings today for national security nominees. Three former SecDefs and several other former DOD officials support Austin.
Defense News notes Mattis’ failure to understand civilian politics.
Two reports about extremists in the US military — from NYT and Military.com.
AP details the collapse of police command structure at the Capitol.
WOTR has good think piece about military traditionalists and futurists.
Trump’s “1776 Commission” reports that progressivism is like fascism. Thought you’d like to know.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Here is what I really said
Veljko Nestorović of Kosovo Online asked:
Q: Is it possible to get your answer to the question before the elections
in Kosovo, why at the moment there is no party (like URA in Montenegro
with Dritan Abazovic) civic options where Albanians and Serbs and
everyone else are represented, but all parties ethnically exclusive?
Is it necessary for Kosovo to “get a civic party” in order for democracy
in Kosovo to take an upward path?
I answered:
A: I would certainly like to see a civic option of the sort you
suggest, but it is difficult in a society where people are largely
segregated and ethnic identity overemphasized. The establishments in
both Pristina and Belgrade would see such an alternative as a threat.
But that is no reason for it not to happen!
Note: I did not comment on Abazovic at all. I commented on a civic alternative in Kosovo, which I would welcome. In retrospect, I should have added “I will not comment on Abazovic,” but it seems clear to me that was the case. The press that suggests I expressed approval of Abazovic is certainly distorting what I said and meant. I said nothing about him.
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No need to reconcile with Trumpism, only defeat it
This is the best I’ve seen on the chronology of 1/6 events:
But this from The New Yorker is the best I’ve seen conveying the motives and impunity of the participants (sorry it won’t embed). The religiously motivated and overwhelmingly white male rioters felt entitled. Some of them came prepared to capture or kill members of Congress. There is no doubt what they would have done had they gotten hold of Nancy Pelosi. There is also no doubt who inspired their attack on The Capitol: President Trump and Senators Cruz and Hawley.
Less clear is how much coordination there was before the attack. Certainly the White House communicated with the demonstration organizers about his appearance at the Ellipse. The question is what the President understood about their intentions thereafter. Several members of Congress have reported on tours of The Capitol, which is closed to visitors during the Covid-19 epidemic, conducted the day before the riot. Those will have been organized by members of Congress or their staffs. There are also indications that some rioters knew the layout of the offices, though they appear not to have known about escape routes.
I would want much more clarity on these issues and others before any trial in the Senate. That and likely interference with President-elect Biden’s legislative agenda argue for a pause on delivering the impeachment to the upper house. Delay also has the virtue of leaving Trump in suspense, thereby preventing him from rousing his followers for another attack on The Capitol or another outrage for fear of generating a guilty verdict, reached with Republican support. There should be a trial, but there is no need for alacrity.
In the meanwhile, we are all anticipating Trump’s pardons for his family, his associates, and maybe himself, as well as anyone else who pays the right fixers and makes the right promises. But there is no requirement that pardons be publicized. So we may not learn about them before the Inauguration. There is not even a requirement that a pardon be written, though a verbal one with no supporting documentation wouldn’t likely stand up in court. Trump could however give signed notes to each person pardoned to produce only when they are indicted, months or even years later. A self-pardon is a manifest absurdity. You can’t “grant” yourself something. Doing so would be the epitome of corruption: abuse of public office for private gain.
Some are urging that Biden pardon Trump, claiming that reconciliation and bipartisanship would then be easier. I don’t buy that argument at all. Reconciliation is only possible with accountability. Bipartisanship is going to work with people who voted to certify the election results, not those who refused to do so. Biden should do nothing to reduce the growing split in the Republican Party, which has the potential to purge it of Trumpism, or at least to generate a new, truly conservative party that might cooperate with more moderate Democrats on issues like Covid-19, the economy, police brutality, and climate change.
The extremists who refused to certify votes knew full well that there was no widespread or systematic fraud in the election, evidence for which would have shown up by now. What they and the rioters were saying is that the votes of black and brown people in Democratic cities should not be counted. They filed dozens of law suits with that as the explicit objective. They were defending white privilege and power. Trumpism is, at its heart, racism. There is no need to reconcile with it, only defeat it.
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