Month: January 2021
Stevenson’s army, January 18, late edition
I’ve now found data reinforcing my longstanding belief that Newt Gingrich, more than any other person, is responsible for the rise of toxic partisanship. [There are other factors, of course, but Gingrich was at the leading edge.]
Princeton Prof Julian Zelizer ably described how Gingrich used the theme of corruption to destroy public trust in Congress and vault the GOP into control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. The Georgia congressman openly said, “We have to destroy the House in order to save it.” He certainly achieved the destruction, but we have never seen the salvation.
Last week Kevin Drum posted a chart based on Pew surveys showing the decline in trust of government among Republicans and Democrats. [I can’t seem to be able to copy and paste the chart, so please look.] It shows a sharp drop in the early 1990s, in both parties, offset by a post-9/11 resurgence of trust, followed by the declines linked to the forever wars and the Democratic distrust of Bush and then GOP distrust of Obama.
It didn’t have to be this way. Politics cold have been about policy rather than personality. But Gingrich and his acolytes weaponized peccadilloes [the House bank, postage allowances] and found that it worked politically. How ironic that Donald Trump convinced his supporters that he had “drained the swamp” when he appointed lobbyists in charge of agencies they had lobbied for private clients.
Gingrich is also responsible for hyperpartisanship in another way: many of his Young Turks later became Senators, bringing their House majoritarianism and take-no-prisoners style into the upper chamber.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 18
AP says FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC to prevent insider threat.
Several cabinet nominees have Senate hearings Tuesday, Hill has as story on the Austin hearing before SASC.
Politico has a long story on the inside fights that undermined Operation Warp Speed.
Maggie Haberman & colleague analyze the role of words in the Trump presidency.
CRS has new report with historical data on congressional careers.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Build a world in which Trump will not thrive
Donald Trump could hardly have done a worse job as president. He inherited a growing economy, a healthy population, and a country that had begun to heal race relations under a two-term black president. He is leaving office with the economy going into the second dip of a deep recession, after having failed to respond effectively to Covid-19. He has praised violent white supremacists, alienated all but small contingents of minorities, and inspired a seditious insurrection targeting The Capitol and the constitutionally mandated counting of electoral votes. He was only impeached twice. He gave cause for many more indictments.
Trump still has substantial support in the Republican Party, a significant portion of which supported his effort to overturn election results and even the January 6 rioting. Only 10 Republicans joined the Democrats in voting for his second impeachment. If we are to believe one of the Republicans, there was serious discussion among them of the validity of state legislatures availing themselves of the opportunity to change the popular vote outcomes and choose a state’s electors, regardless of claims of fraud. That possibility is left open by current laws and the constitution, but it is hard to imagine a more anti-democratic notion.
The Republican Party now finds itself weakened, split, and tied to a defeated president who won’t even extend the standard courtesies of a concession speech and attendance at his successor’s inauguration. Not that he would be welcomed, as President-elect Biden has made clear. Even the most moderate, mild-mannered, and bipartisan leaning politicians has his limits. Trump will instead no doubt try to steal the limelight with some stunt between now and noon on January 20. Pardons for his family, friends, rioters, himself? An attack on Iran? An appearance at a demonstration the day of Biden’s inauguration? Who knows: in this he is clever and malicious. He’ll find something.
Suspension of his Twitter account will handicap Trump a bit. I confess to mixed feelings about that. He unquestionably used it to incite violence, so Twitter should long ago have blocked him. The history of the last four years might have been far more salubrious had it done so. But limits on free speech have a way of expanding to people who are far less culpable. Belarusian President Lukashenko no doubt feels his democracy-advocating opponents should have their social media access cut off. How about Iran’s Supreme Leader, its President, and its Foreign Minister? I don’t like their regime and think they are guilty of massive human rights abuses, but are we going to cut off all foreign leaders who commit them?
Those issues are for another day. Today we can bask in the notion that Trump will soon be out of office, his Congressional supporters are in disarray, companies are cutting off contributions to those who voted against certifying the electoral results, and Trump’s base is sorely disappointed if not yet disillusioned. We can also relish the rise to power of a calm, empathetic, capable President Biden, who is busy appointing a diverse administration of serious people and developing plans for meeting the health and economic crises that besiege us.
Nothing is guaranteed. Trump will retreat and regroup, along with the bankrupt National Rifle Association, his hypocritical evangelical supporters, his sons and daughter-in-law, the soon to be disbarred Rudy Giuliani, and those Republicans more interested in regaining power than in standing for conservatives principles, which were largely anathema to Trump.
But on Martin Luther King Day, we can be thankful for all those–black, white, male and female, and everything in between–who voted for the kind of America that King wanted: “a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.” If we build that kind of world, the likes of Trump will not thrive.
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Peace Picks | January 18-22 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Truth and Accountability Post-Insurrection: Where does the country go from here? | January 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM- 11:30AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
On January 6, following a rally where President Trump urged his supporters to “fight much harder” against “bad people” and “show strength,” a mob of rioters aiming to halt the count of Electoral College ballots that would formally seal Joe Biden’s victory violently stormed and overtook the United States Capitol. One Capitol police officer and four pro-Trump extremists lost their lives as a result.
Now, in the aftermath of the insurrection, lawmakers are exploring ways to strip the president of his authority, hold those who participated accountable, and investigate the massive security failures that jeopardized the lives of elected officials and legislative staff. The House of Representatives impeached President Trump for the second time in his term in the absence of Vice President Mike Pence invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from power. Senate leaders are now hashing out parameters for Trump’s trial in the Senate. Some lawmakers are also urging the expulsion of Republican lawmakers who participated in the efforts to overturn the election via the 14th Amendment.
On January 19, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar to discuss the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection. Panelists will assess the options lawmakers are exploring to remove President Trump from office, the impeachment process, how the insurrection affects American democracy, and what it all means for President-elect Biden’s first 100 days in office.
Speakers:
John Hudak: Deputy Director Center for Effective Public Management and Senior Fellow for Governance Studies
Susan Hennessey: Senior Fellow for Governance Studies and Executive Editor of Lawfare
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director Center for Effective Public Management and Senior Fellow for Governance Studies
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow for Governance Studies
Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow for Governance Studies
2. Defeating Corruption and Promoting Democracy: The Role of USAID | January 19, 2021 | 2:00 PM- 3:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
USAID has been working on anti-corruption issues for more than 20 years. CSIS published a paper in April of 2020 suggesting that given the Great Power Competition, the United States needs to “get back at the front of the anti-corruption parade” and lead on these issues. Globally corruption is a vote-moving issue. There are enormous costs to corruption, and it holds back private investment and jobs. Ultimately, civil society, religious institutions, the private sector, and governments need to create coalitions to defeat corruption. USAID is a catalytic funder, a convenor, a talent developer, and a policy partner to help make these sorts of changes and coalitions happen. In line with USAID’s longstanding anti-corruption work in Eastern Europe, USAID will be launching its new US-Albania Transparency Academy at this event.
Speakers:
Brock Beirman: Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Europe and Eurasia USAID
Susan K. Fritz: Former Regional Mission Director to Ukraine and Belarus, USAID
Frank Brown: Director of the Anti-Corruption and Governance Center, CIPE
Juela Hamati: Former President, European Democracy Youth Network (EDYN)
3. The Impact of European Policy on the Migration Crisis | January 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM-11:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations |Register Here
The Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to invite you to a virtual seminar on the migration crisis and European cooperation.
This is the third seminar of a partnership between the H2020 project MAGYC and ECFR Paris, entitled “Crises, migration and European cooperation”. The recordings of the first two seminars, “How the Covid-19 shaped European migratory governance?” and “Migration and climate change: what can European cooperation achieve?“, are available online.
Speakers:
Thibaut Jaulin: Researcher at Science Po University
Andrew Lebovich: Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Gerasimos Tsourapas: Senior Lecturer, University of Birmingham
Rym Momtaz (Moderator): France Correspondent, POLITICO
4. United States Presidential Inauguration | January 20, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | United States Capitol- Live Streamed | Watch Here
Per the Twentieth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Inauguration Day is set for January 20th every four years — that’s a Wednesday in 2021.
The theme of this year’s inauguration is “America United,” an issue that’s long been a central focus for Biden but one that’s taken on added weight in the wake of the violence at the U.S. Capitol earlier this month. The Presidential Inaugural Committee said that the theme “reflects the beginning of a new national journey that restores the soul of America, brings the country together, and creates a path to a brighter future.
5. U.S Pakistan Relations in the Biden Era: A Conversation with Moeed Yusuf | January 21, 2021 | 9:00 AM-10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
After a tense period during the first part of the Trump administration, U.S.-Pakistan relations have improved over the last few years amid the launch of a peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. However, with U.S. troops drawing down, the future of U.S. relations with Pakistan-which in Washington have long been viewed through the lens of Afghanistan-is uncertain. This online-only event will feature a discussion with Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Pakistan’s national security advisor and special assistant to the prime minister on national security and strategic policy planning. He will discuss Islamabad’s expectations for U.S.-Pakistan relations in the Joe Biden era, and what the situation in Afghanistan may mean for the relationship moving forward. This conversation is moderated by Michael Kugelman.
Speakers:
Moedd Yusuf: National Security Advisor to the Prime Minsiter of Pakistan
Michael Kugelman: Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia Program at the Wilson Center
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Biden needs to clean the Augean nuclear stables
Former IAEA nuclear inspector Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
US president-elect Biden assumes responsibility Wednesday facing an extraordinary reality: nuclear risks. Ahead even of climate change and disruptive technologies, nuclear weapons pose a vital challenge to world leaders. Shifting geopolitics have raised nuclear risks higher than ever before. Intent, accident, or miscalculation could lead to a nuclear apocalypse. According to the Atomic Scientists, the its Doomsday Clock is closer to midnight than at any time since1947: 100 seconds.
Biden, commander-in-chief of the world most powerful nuclear arsenal, is urgently called to overcome numerous legacies of his predecessor:
- Trump disliked arms control and multilateralism and considered treaties and international agreements unacceptable legal restraints on US freedom.
- Trump withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which eliminated an entire class of nuclear missiles in Europe.
- Trump’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review included deployment of new low-yield nuclear weapons, making the use of such mass destruction armaments more tempting.
- Trump announced non-extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between USA and Russia, set to expire in February 2021, due in part to Beijing’s refusal to join because of its disproportionately smaller nuclear arsenal.
- President Trump’s erratic behavior on 6 January 2021, inciting insurrection against his own country, points out the need for establishing procedures that limit a US president’s exclusive authority to order a nuclear strike.
In addition, two on-going nuclear sagas will challenge Biden’s courage and decisiveness right away:
Iran
Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw unilaterally from the 2015 nuclear deal shredded an achievement of 12 years of intense multilateral diplomacy and re-activated tensions with. The US withdrawal overturned all fundamental restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, damaging a proven approach to countering proliferation based on international monitoring and verification. The US neglected the authority and competence of the UN watchdog IAEA, undermined international confidence in the UN Security Council and in multilateral diplomacy, and jeopardized the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture.
Rejoining the 2015 Iran deal, as Biden pledged to do upon taking office, is complex and risky. Tehran, in reaction to the US withdrawal, is growing its uranium enrichment capacity in violation of the agreement. Moreover, its parliament voted to end IAEA inspections next month if the US does not lift key sanctions. The IAEA maintains that the Iran deal would not be implementable without amendments agreed by all parties involved. Israel, America’s top strategic ally in the region but an alleged nuclear proliferator, along with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf partners, keep urging Washington to refrain from any compromise with Tehran, while the EU says it will redouble efforts to save the nuclear agreement.
North Korea
Diplomatic efforts to solve the almost three decade-long North Korean nuclear issue have desolately failed. During Trump’s years, Washington oscillated between theatrical summits and hyperbolic threats, while Pyongyang continued to develop its long-range nuclear strike capability in secret. The option of forcing North Korea to nullify its nuclear capability is no longer realistic. Pyongyang has no other strategy available for deterring its decapitation.
Circumstances are not propitious
Continuation in the current course could lead to nuclear breakouts in the vulnerable regions of Middle East and East Asia. Biden, in his interview with The New York Times on 2 December 2020, recognized this grave likelihood by referring to ”Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and other countries” as potential nuclear proliferators.
The 2019 Munich Security Conference found that in seven major countries (France, Germany, USA, Japan, Canada, UK and Russia) when answering the question: “Which of the three countries—USA, Russia or China—do you consider as the biggest threat to your country?” citizens of France, Germany, Canada and Russia consider the US the greatest threat to their country while the Japanese consider the US as the second biggest threat by a small margin after China. America is perceived as presenting the biggest threat to peoples of almost all major world powers!
Biden’s upcoming challenges call to mind the myth of Hercules’ labor: cleaning the Augean stables.
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Stevenson’s army, January 16
DOJ backtracks on “capture and assassinate” charge.
Scientists doubt hypersonic weapons will work as hoped.
Officials waited months to approve vaccine distribution plan.
Fred Kaplan calls Pompeo worst SecState ever. I think Tillerson is also in the running.
I have a piece in The Hill calling for Biden to name a lot of temporary officials.
Jonathan Swan details Haspel threat to quit over political appointee.
Jamelle Bouie chronicles the 2-decade campaign against “voter fraud.”
Warning ignored: Capitol Police warned 3 days before attack. Attackers included trained military.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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