Month: January 2021
Stevenson’s army, January 14, late edition
Instead of waiting until tomorrow morning, I wanted to share these additional items today.
Pew has two new reports on how people get their news and the increased use of social media.
Heritage analyst has some good points about how to think about defense spending.
DOD has a new report on where the defense money goes.
TPM says DHS intelligence failed before Jan. 6.
Just Security notes parallels to Benghazi attack. [And remember, Congress held almost as many hearings into Benghazi as into the 9/11 attacks.]
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 14
Loyalty test? Army loyalty test.
UCMJ can be used against rioters.
Algorithms have consequences.
CNN explains why the JCS spoke out.
Note the leadership gaps.
Administration touts new Taiwan policy — and declassifies its major policy paper.
WSJ says Iran is working on nuclear weapons materials.
CNAS has new report on countering China’s technology policy.
Thinking like a politician: Punchbowl News suggests motives of the ten GOP who voted for impeachment.
Ten Republicans voted for Trump’s impeachment. Here’s how to think of them:
Rep. John Katko of New York is an upstate Republican who always has a tough general election race. His defection is notable because he’s the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee — a chair if Republicans win the House back — so a break like this with the president is something.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a harsh Trump critic for quite awhile. So, no surprise here, and no internal dynamics to note. He’s picked a lane — institutional hawk with an independent, anti-Trump streak — and he’s sticking to it.
Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, of course, is the most notable yes vote. Her decision to support impeachment likely gave political cover to the rest of the nine who joined her. Cheney’s internal image has been cemented: If you’re aligned with Trump, she’s a turncoat. If you’re part of the party that wants to move on from the 45th president, she did well by you. More about her in a minute.
Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan is a veteran Republican who doesn’t get hurt by standing up for what he believes in. Upton has been in the House for 35 years — he probably has 100 percent name ID at home. His district went narrowly for Trump in 2020 — 51-47 — and Upton won by nearly 16 points.
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington State also has a district that voted narrowly for Trump. She typically wins her seat handily. She has no leadership position at risk by taking this vote.
Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington State was on everyone’s watch list. Newhouse said before the vote he was undecided and then dropped a statement right as he got to the floor saying he’d vote to oust Trump. Newhouse’s district is solidly for Trump, so we’ll see how this plays out for him politically.
Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan continues a trend of really interesting Republicans from the Grand Rapids area — Meijer’s predecessor was Justin Amash. This district seems to reward people who don’t fall in line with the party. Also, Meijer’s family owns the massive Meijer supermarket chain in the Midwest, so he has the personal resources and name ID to withstand attacks.
Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina was a shocker that the Hill press corps and GOP leadership didn’t see coming. His district is conservative — Trump won by 20 points — and many people thought his yes vote was a mistake. It wasn’t. He said this in a statement Wednesday evening:
It has been a week since so many were injured, the United States Capitol was ransacked, and six people were killed, including two police officers. Yet, the President has not addressed the nation to ask for calm. He has not visited the injured and grieving. He has not offered condolences. Yesterday in a press briefing at the border, he said his comments were ‘perfectly appropriate.’ I have backed this President through thick and thin for four years. I campaigned for him and voted for him twice. But, this utter failure is inexcusable.
Rep. Anthony Gonzales of Ohio was a bit of a surprise to some onlookers. The former NFL wide receiver and Ohio State grad cuts his own image in the House.
Rep. David Valadao of California is perpetually one of the most endangered lawmakers in Congress. The Central Valley Republican was first elected in 2012, lost in 2018 and just won the House seat back. His district voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in November, so politically, this is a good move.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Too many good reasons to impeach, but he won’t
This is one of the last cyberspaces on earth where you would expect to find a video of Kevin McCarthy, California Republican and Minority Leader in the House. But here is his speech on impeachment today:
McCarthy is clear that the attack on the Capitol was undemocratic, violent, and criminal, aimed at interrupting the constitutionally required certification of Electoral College votes. He states there is no evidence of left-wing Antifa involvement. He says the President bears responsibility for the attack on the Capitol, and criticizes his failure to try to stop it. He says Joe Biden won the election and will be sworn in as President next week. To all of that I say: yes.
His main complaint is that no investigation has been conducted nor hearings held, though the facts adduced in the article of impeachment are all well-known and public. He claims a vote to impeach would further divide the nation, even though he knows that half dozen, or maybe more, Republicans will vote in favor of impeachment, as will the entire majority caucus. Instead of impeachment, he prefers a fact-finding commission and a censure resolution, neither of which he can convince Democrats to vote for.
The weight of the arguments in the two previous paragraphs weighs in favor of impeachment. McCarthy nevertheless is leading the House Republican charge against it, including false allegations from members of his own caucus that Biden did not win and that the Democrats advocated violence during the Black Lives Matter demonstrations.
In conclusion, McCarthy calls for an end to polarization, making reference to the fraught transition from John Adams to Thomas Jefferson in 1801. But he ignores the fact that Adams conceded, which Trump has not. He also ignores the fact that President-elect Biden has, like Jefferson, asked his supporters to put aside division and preached forgiveness. Trump has ignored that appeal.
McCarthy wants unity. I know where he can find it: in a vote, based on the arguments he presents, in favor of impeachment.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 13
State Dept says Sec. Pompeo cancelled his planned European trip in order to work on the transition. Reuters said the real reason was that he was denied high level meetings.
FP says Pompeo is ‘bluffing his way to a legacy.”
NYT piles on by reporting but disputing his claims about Iran and al Qaeda.
SASC hearing heard opposition to waiver for Austin. Hearing recording is here. I was especially impressed by statement from Naval War College Prof Lindsay Cohn on why no waiver is important for civil-military relations.
Smart move: WSJ says Biden will appoint several acting heads of agencies pending approval of nominees.
FT reports on Turkey’s many overseas operations.
FBI tries to explain why warning of Capitol violence didn’t have impact.
Parler users were at Capitol.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Suddenly resignation is on the table
The New York Times is quoting Senator Majority Leader McConnell as saying President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that McConnell is please the Democrats are going to impeach him. Such a leak would happen only if McConnell wanted it to. It is a signal that the Majority Leader thinks conviction in the Senate is a real possibility, or even that he wants it to happen.
Jettisoning Trump would avoid a growing split in the Republican Party over impeachment and possibly restore it to the good graces of corporate donors, who have been pledging not to support those House and Senate members who voted against certification of the Electoral College outcome. Without a sharp break with Trump, the Republican Party will be in the dock at the coming trials of the seditious insurrectionists now being rounded up and charged in court.
Conviction of Trump in the Senate would make Trump ineligible for future Federal office and tag the Republican Party with a brush whose stain would be difficult to remove. Trump’s best bet for avoiding it is to resign before impeachment and get Vice President Pence to pardon him. That at least would create a giant legal tangle if the Democrats were to proceed in the Senate with the trial. Or, the Vice President could trigger the 25th Amendment, which immediately deprives the President of his executive powers, and pardon him.
The trouble with these ideas is that Trump really can’t trust Pence, whom he excoriated on Twitter during the January 6 riot for failing to overturn the election results. Pence could renege, denying that there was any prior agreement if Trump were to assert there was one.
Power is draining rapidly from the Trump Administration. There have been multiple high-level resignations that will limit the Administration’s ability to get things done. European officials today refused to meet with Secretary of State Pompeo, who wanted to do a farewell tour on the Continent. President Trump plans to visit his treasured border wall tomorrow, but the press will tell the truth: most of it replaces pre-existing fencing, it will have little impact on illegal immigration, and the Mexicans didn’t pay for it. American taxpayers did.
McConnell will try to save what he can as Trump’s ship runs aground. But Trump won’t be among the precious cargo he tries to rescue. Trump had better reconsider resignation and pardon, before it is too late.
PS: Then there is this, from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which essentially says the demonstration the President supported and spoke to amounted to seditious insurrection:
And this, from a Republican member of the House. His colleague Liz Cheney has also said she will vote for impeachment. The dam is breaking.
The House Judiciary Committee has the particulars. And here is the single impeachment article.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 12
SecState Pompeo seems determined to change many existing policies before January 20
in order to lock in Trump views and box in Biden. This week he did it with Taiwan and the Houthis. Yesterday he put Cuba on the terrorist supporter list. And today he going to link Iran to al Qaeda.
Meanwhile, Reuters says DOD is violating the new law blocking troop withdrawals from Afghanistan.
Dean Cohen calls for punishment of Capitol rioters.
Interesting case: MD Senators defend head of military medical school.
Politico warns of extremists in US military ranks.
As the son of a policeman, I’ve long been concerned about the militarization of local police. TNSR has good article.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
