Day: February 8, 2021
Fighting words have frightful consequences
The second impeachment trial of Donald Trump starts tomorrow. He is accused of inciting the January 6 attack on the Capitol. His lawyers are arguing two things:
- He can’t be convicted because he is no longer in office.
- As a citizen with constitutional rights, whatever he said before and on January 6 is entitled to protection as freedom of speech.
These arguments are nonsense.
He wouldn’t be impeachable if he were no longer in office, but preventing the trial and conviction would mean he can’t be held accountable for acts committed while in office and is therefore above the law. You can’t uphold an oath to protect the Constitution if you are prepared to put a former president beyond the law. Besides, there is a precedent for a trial after someone (a Secretary of War, not a president) left office.
Freedom of speech has its limits. Most notoriously you aren’t entitled to yell “fire” in a crowded theater if there is no fire. That is analogous to what Trump did before and on January 6: he lied about the election having been stolen and then told his supporters to march on the Capitol, a move not included in their demonstration permit, and fight to prevent the tabulation of the Electoral College results. The merits of the case are clear.
But the politics are just as clear: all but a handful of Republican Senators are committed to voting against conviction. They are both wedded to Trump as their party leader and fearful of any criticism from him that could hurt their prospects in primary elections. No one in Washington is currently expecting 17 Republicans, the number needed for a two-thirds vote to convict, to defy Trump.
This will look like a defeat for the Democrats, but I have to wonder about its longer-term impact. Sticking with Trump is causing prominent Republicans and thousands of rank-and-file members to leave the GOP. The numbers are less significant than the quality. President Biden is already more popular than Trump ever was while in office. If he were to remain anywhere near his current approval ratings, lots of Americans will not be feeling the usual need to punish the incumbent in 2022’s mid-term election. The argument is even stronger for 2024, provided Biden is successful in ending the epidemic and reviving the economy.
That’s a big if. But it would be hard to fault the Administration yet in its pursuit of these two top priorities. Vaccines are flowing more rapidly and masks are being required more widely. Plans for reopening schools are progressing. So, too, is the Congressional effort to approve a $1.9 trillion relief package, if necessary by avoiding the Senate filibuster (which would require 10 Republicans to side with the Democrats in approving the package). Biden talked unity at his Inauguration, and he clearly would prefer it, but he isn’t waiting for the Republicans to make nice.
That’s good negotiating strategy from the candidate who didn’t write The Art of the Deal. Republicans will come around if they see that the American people prefer what Biden is offering. It has to be big and effective to be convincing. Only if he can convince Republicans he’ll do it without their votes will at least some of them be prepared to vote with him. I’d expect some last-minute compromises–Biden has already indicated he is willing to delay doubling the minimum wage. That is likely wise, as unemployment is still high and needs to get down to its prior lows before the economy will be in a position to both pay and still continue to create jobs.
All this leaves foreign policy, the major concern of peacefare.net, playing second fiddle. But without recovery from the virus and the recession, America won’t be able to play the leadership role in the world that Biden aspires to. He has been skillful in making some quick moves–extending the strategic arms treaty with Russia and enabling humanitarian aid to continue to go to Yemen by canceling Trump’s last-minute designation of the Houthis as terrorists are savvy moves.
Biden is still in a stand-off with Iran over who returns first to compliance with the nuclear deal, but let’s hope he soon finds a formula for getting back in and once again putting Tehran at least a year from gaining nuclear weapons. There too Trump’s fighting words have had frightful consequences.
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Stevenson’s army, February 8
George Shultz, who served in 4 senior cabinet positions in the Nixon and Reagan administrations, including Secretary of State, died on Saturday. Dan Drezner has a fine appreciation, including links to other good articles.
Over the years, I’ve found several teaching points from Shultz’s career.
1. He explained how the policy process is never-ending, with fights recurring even after presidential decisions. Nothing ever gets settled in this town, a seething debating society in which the debate never stops, in which people never give up, including me.
2. He threatened to resign 14 times to gain leverage for his proposals — but never had to follow through.
3. The toxic relationship between him and Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger pervaded State and DOD, making interagency cooperation nearly impossible for years. It was even worse than the Powell-Rumsfeld fights in the early 2000s. Reagan refused to choose between his two friends, so both continued to push contradictory policies. Weinberger, for example, wanted to limit the use of force to strategic enemies; Shultz insisted on fighting terrorists, calling Weinberger’s tests “the codification of the Vietnam syndrome.”
In other news, WSJ notes that China is winning the war of setting technical standards for new technologies.
– NYT sees a pattern in Biden’s trade appointments
-FP reviews a book about centrist diplomacy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | February 8 – February 12, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Strengthening the Multilateral Order in a Nationalist Age | February 8, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Transnational problems such as climate change, economic volatility, and global health can most effectively be tackled by deep and structured cooperation via institutions, rules, and formal intergovernmental networks. Most European nations are committed to protecting and strengthening multilateral order in an increasingly nationalist world. While the case for multilateralism is well established, much less is known about how to establish an effective multilateral order. On Monday, February 8, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion to analyze alternative pathways to increasing the net levels of multilateral cooperation.
Speakers
Bruce Jones (moderator): Director, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings Institution
Kai Sauer: Undersecretary of State for Foreign and Security Policy, Ministry for Foreign Affairs for Finland
Constanze Stellzenmüller: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Thomas Wright: Director, Center on the United States and Europe
2. Empowering Youth on the Path to Conflict Resolution | February 8, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
The world’s 1.2 billion young people make up 16% of the world population with half of them living in low-income and lower-middle income countries. Youth possess catalytic potential to help achieve global development goals and to promote stability, peace, and community resilience. In recent years, youth have been drivers of change through organizing climate movements, embracing digital transformation, and coordinating community pandemic responses. With concerted effort, youth in fragile contexts can realize their potential as peacebuilders and drivers of post-Covid-19 recovery.
Speakers
Erol Yayboke (moderator): Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, CSIS
Guadalupe Cruz: Director of Training for Latin and Central America, Cure Violence Global
Sherizaan Minwalla: Chief of Party, Iraq Genocide Recovery and Persecution Response, MSI A Tetra Tech Company
Rachel Walsh Taza: Program Manager, Children & Youth, Search for Common Ground
Ambassador Lone Dencker Wisborg: Ambassador for Denmark to the US
3. Building a Viable Middle East Venture Capital Industry | February 9, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Startup investments in the Middle East are on the rise: in 2020, despite a global pandemic, venture capital funding amounted to over $1 billion and increased 13 percent from 2019 according to a MAGNiTT report. Still, significant barriers remain that prevent greater investment and stymie the region’s economic growth. The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East will discuss how to boost the venture capital industry in the Middle East to drive sustainable funding for startups.
Speakers
Amjad Ahmad: Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Ahmad al-Naimi: Partner, Saudi Technology Ventures (STV)
Ahmed el-Alfi: Chairman and Co-Founder, Sawari Ventures
Noor Sweid: General Partner, Global Ventures
Christopher Schroeder (moderator): Venture Investor
4. Presenting the Belfer Center’s 2020 National Cyber Power Index | February 9, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Only a handful of countries are well known for their cyber impacts: notable, US, Israel, Iran, China, Russia and North Korea. But cyber visibility can give a misleading picture of actual cyber power. The full range of capabilities, objectives, and actors are often left out of the story. The Belfer Center’s Julia Voo, Anina Schwarzenbach, Irfan Hemani, Simon Jones, Winnona DeSombre and Daniel Cassidy have proposed a novel and more complete way to measure a country’s cyber power.
Belfer’s 2020 National Cyber Power Index looks at the cyber capabilities of 30 countries across seven national objectives such as surveillance, defense, intelligence gathering and destruction. It then measures a country’s capability within each objective. The team hope that through developing the NCPI the discussion of cyber power is broadened to reflect applications beyond destructive capabilities.
Speakers
Anina Schwarzenbach: Postdoctoral Associate, University of Maryland
Julia Voo: Cyber Fellow, Belfer Center
5. The EU, Japan and the US in Indo-Pacific | February 10, 2021 | 5:30 PM – 6:45 PM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
In 2016, Japan published its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision, underscoring the importance of a rules-based order in the region. Europe, on the other hand, has been more cautious in the adoption of this concept. But the pandemic has highlighted the need for Europe to recalibrate the status quo and actively expand its partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. With France, Germany and the Netherlands, three EU countries have already published Indo-Pacific strategies and the need for a coordinated pan-European approach to the Indo-Pacific is growing. Toshimitsu Motegi, the Foreign Minister of Japan, has recently addressed the EU’s Foreign Affair Council to advocate for it, while The High Representative Josep Borrell expressed appreciation for Japan’s FOIP.
This conversation will discuss Japanese understanding of FOIP, the efforts to bring it about and potential for closer cooperation with Europe and the US. What does Japan’s FOIP strategy mean for Europe? How could a coherent and effective EU strategy on Indo-Pacific look like? What kind of expectations did the “European Indo-Pacific awakening” raise in the region? How can Europe, Japan and the US work together to maintain a rules-based order in the region?
Speakers
Janka Oertel (moderator): Director, Asia Programme, ECFR
Prof. Nobushige Takamizawa: Former Permanent Representative of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament
6. A decade of protests: Why governance reform is critical in the Arab World | February 10, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:15 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As we approach the tenth anniversary of the Arab Spring, much attention is rightly being given to the broader governance trajectory of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Beyond the public debate over democratic change, another long-standing struggle is taking place as many countries work to reform state institutions to make them more efficient, effective, and responsive. The MENA region is home to some of the largest public sectors in the world, yet the quality of service delivery is often poor. The region is also one of the few places globally that has lost ground in the past decade on indices for government effectiveness and control of corruption. The Brookings Doha Center and Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut are pleased to invite you to a webinar discussing the future of governance reform in the MENA region.
Speakers
Joseph Bahout (moderator): Director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Hala Bsaisu Lattouf: Former Minister of Social Development, Government of Jordan
Rami Khouri: Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut
Robert P. Beschel, Jr.: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Tarik M. Yousef: Senior Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
7. The Security Environment in Western Pacific Waters | February 10, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
The waters of the Western Pacific are the focus of intense interest for trade routes, for territorial disputes, and as ongoing case studies for international law. How do Japan and the United States approach the challenges of upholding international norms and the law of the seas in this important region? How can regional and global multilateral partnerships influence the security dynamics in these waters? Join us for a webinar with Japanese and U.S. experts to explore these complex issues.
Speakers
Emma Chanlett-Avery: Specialist in Asian Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Yurika Ishii: Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Susumu Takai: President, Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan
Kathleen Walsh: Associate Professor of National Security Affairs, US Naval War College
7. A Nation in Transition: Political Polarization in Turkey | February 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Turkey’s activities in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean are well documented, casting a long shadow in the Middle East and beyond. But less reported are some of the trends and attitudes lurking beneath the surface that will likely shape how Turkey’s domestic politics, society, and foreign policy will evolve in the future. The Middle East Institute (MEI), in collaboration with IstanPol, an Istanbul-based research institution, is pleased to announce a series called Turkey Beyond: Trends and Drivers Shaping a Nation in Transition.
In the opening panel, the speakers will discuss the following questions and more: What are the drivers of ongoing political polarization in the Turkish electorate? How are political parties and actors responding to this increasing polarization? How is polarization influenced by gender, economic segmentation, and ethnicity? What has changed since the 2019 local elections?
Speakers
Gönül Tol (moderator): Director, Turkey Program, MEI
Edgar Sar: Co-founder and Chair, IstanPol
Seren Selvin Korkmaz: Co-founder and Executive Director, IstanPol
8. Diplomacy, Discord, and Turkish Politics since World War II | February 11, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
CRS Director Onur Isci will explore the history of Turkish diplomacy in the Cold War. Joining him are author and contributing writer at the New York Times, Suzy Hansen and Associate Director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University, James Ryan. The three experts of modern Turkish history will explore the major themes, issues, and lessons from Turkey’s diplomatic experiences in the Cold War.
Speakers
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Onur Isci: Assistant Professor, Bilkent University
Suzy Hansen: Author, New York Times
James Ryan: Assistant Director, Center for Near Eastern Studies, NYU
9. Ten Years After the Arab Spring: Middle East Writers Reflect on the Arab Uprisings | February 11, 2021 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The second book talk in our series features award-winning Egyptian writer Yasmine El Rashidi discussing her debut novel, Chronicle of a Last Summer. Through a young Egyptian woman’s recount of her personal and political coming of age, El Rashidi traces the fine line between survival and complicity, exploring the conscience of a generation raised in fear and silence.
Speakers
Yasmine El Rashidi: Author, Chronicle of a Last Summer
Jacki Lyden: Author, Board Member, Alan Cheuse International Writers Center
10. Transatlantic Policy Symposium 2021: Building Better Partnerships | February 12, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM ET | BMW Center for German and European Studies | Register Here
The Transatlantic Policy Symposium (TAPS) is an annual conference fully organized by the graduate students of the BMW Center for German and European Studies in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. The conference brings together academics, students, and professionals from around the world to discuss pressing issues at the heart of the transatlantic relationship.
Speakers
W. Gyude Moore: Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
Dr. Tilla Antony: Senior Officer, Global Partnerships, International Monetary Fund
Dr. Anne-Marie Gulde: Deputy Director for Asia and Pacific, International Monetary Fund
Eric Kite: Deputy Director, Caribbean Affairs, United States Agency for International Development
Helga Flores Trejo: Vice President, Global Public Affairs International Organizations, Bayer AG
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