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Trump’s win in the Senate could spell his party’s loss

Donald Trump’s impeachment trial has turned into a slam dunk. The Democrats have demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that he incited the rioting on January 6 and failed to do what he could to call it off, in a vain effort to prevent certification of the Electoral College vote after a months-long campaign of lies about electoral fraud. His defense was to claim he could say anything he wanted because the constitution guarantees free speech and anyway he shouldn’t be tried because he is no longer president.

Lots of luck with that. The Senate already voted on the jurisdictional question and the free speech argument is specious: he is accused of violating his oath of office by inciting an insurrection against people performing a constitutionally-mandated procedure. There is no free speech defense from that accusation. The poor performance of Trump’s lawyers and the stunningly well-organization presentations by the Democratic House “managers” were both notable. On the merits, Trump has lost.

But odds are he will win the vote for acquittal. Too many Republicans joined him in his lies about election fraud for the Democrats to be able to turn the 17 needed to convict with a two-thirds majority. They would be convicting themselves as well as Trump. They also fear he will support rivals in their primaries if they vote against him. Theirs is a remarkable display of cowardice.

This quisling behavior may also doom the Republican Party. I would like to see Trump held accountable by a conviction and exclusion from future office, but the Democrats may find acquittal more to their political advantage than conviction.

Conviction with the necessary Republican votes would signal the departure of the Republican Party from Trumpism. Their House incumbents could then run in 2022 credibly claiming that they had purged the poison, as Nikki Halley is already doing, and would return to their traditional vocation as a right-of-center party, one with truth-based positions on the economy, immigration, race, trade, and other major issues. They could try to recruit more minority voters and present themselves as champions of self-reliance, frugality, Christianity, and traditional values.

That is going to be much harder if Trump is acquitted. He will then remain the dominant force in the Republican Party, carrying all the baggage of Trumpism: racism, tax cuts for the rich, growing deficits rather than jobs, fighting and losing trade wars, failing to fight the Covid-19 epidemic, and building an unnecessary and fabulously expensive border fence (not paid for by Mexico). None of those features of Trumpism are going to look pretty in two years, when Trump will insist on more QAnon conspiracists as Republican candidates.

Forty per cent of Americans will still stick with Trump’s GOP, which is enough to get it close to a majority in the House and Senate due to gerrymandering and Republican strength in less populated states, which have two senators like California and New York. But it is nowhere near enough to win the popular vote for President, even if it wins the Electoral College. Only one Republican (George W.) has won both the White House and the popular vote since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Joe Biden’s popularity is already well above Trump’s peak. He (or Kamala Harris) may well do better against a GOP candidate in 2024 who tries to follow in Trump’s footsteps than one who has managed a return to serious conservatism. Trump’s win in the Senate could well spell his party’s loss.