Peace Picks | February 15 – February 19, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

1. Iraq: A Road Map for Recovery | February 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Iraq faces a range of complex and interrelated challenges across the political, socioeconomic, and security sectors. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative, with support from DT Institute, convened a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue beginning in March 2020 and continued through virtual venues through December 2020. The dialogue brought together experts from the United States, Europe, and Iraq for a series of workshops to identify policies to help address Iraq’s cross-sector governance challenges. The attendees included a mix of former and current high-level officials and experts, all of whom are committed to a better future for Iraq.

In a new report, Iraq: A roadmap for recovery, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff outlines some of the most important discussions, findings, and recommendations of the dialogue. The panel will explore some of the most important discussions of the working groups and share recommendations to support the government of Iraq on its road to recovery.

A link to the meeting will be sent to those who register to attend. The event is open to press and on-the-record.

Speakers:

Dr. Dhiaa Al-Asadi: Former Member of Iraqi Council of Representatives

Amb. Ramon Blecua: Former European Union Ambassador to Iraq

Amb. Feisal Al-Istrabadi: Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East; Professor of the Practice of International Law and Diplomacy, Indiana University, Bloomington

Amb. Rend Al-Rahim: President, Iraq Foundation;
Former Ambassador of Iraq to the United States

Mr. Olin Wethington: Founder and Chairman
Wethington International LLC

Ms. Louisa Loveluck (Moderator): Baghdad Bureau Chief
The Washington Post

2. MENA’s Economic Outlook 2021: Challenges and Opportunities February 16, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here

This is a critical year to revisit economic hopes for the region. The COVID-19 epidemic will continue to constrict national GDPs and as vaccinations accelerate, countries will be looking beyond survival to recovery. The incoming Biden administration will be in the early stages of formulating its Middle East strategy, of which economic development will play a central role. Policy makers will need a carefully considered approach to dealing with a region in the midst of economic and political transformation. We believe this discussion will provide much needed clarity on key questions regarding economic opportunities and challenges facing MENA countries.

Speakers:

Jihad Azour: Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund

James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program;
Former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS

Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program

3. Croatia: Opportunities and Obstacles to Peace and Economic Growth in the Balkans | February 17, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | The Hoover Institution |Register Here

In this ninth episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and former President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović discuss education reform, peacebuilding in the Balkans, and strategies to achieve energy security and combat cyber-enabled information warfare.

H.R. McMaster in conversation with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, First female President of the Republic of Croatia (2015- 2020)

Speakers:

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović: Former President of the Republic of Croatia (2015- 2020).

H.R McMaster (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

4. Building an Army Ready for Great Power Competition | February 17, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here

The Army is aggressively preparing for Great Power Competition by moving beyond incremental improvements and making transformational changes across the entire force. Most notably, the Army announced People as their #1 priority, enabling resources to efforts that take care of people and transform how to manage talent. Army transformation includes implementing new doctrine, new organizations, new ways to train, modern equipment, and how the Army competes around the world. Just recently, the Army announced a new model called Regionally Aligned Readiness and Modernization Model (ReARMM) to balance priorities and requirements. These changes ensure the Army maintains strength for the Great Power Competition environment already on the horizon.

As the Army moves into 2021 there are, however, some storm clouds on the horizon. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley recently predicted “a lot of bloodletting” as the Pentagon tries to fund all the necessary programs in a constrained funding environment. A new administration, with undoubtedly different priorities, will be soon sworn in. The recruiting environment remains difficult.

Speakers:

General James C McConville: 40^th Chief of Staff of the US Army

Thomas Spoehr (Moderator): Director, Center for National Defence

5. Nonstate Armed Actors and the US Global Fragility Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities | February 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

In December 2020, the United States released its first U.S. “Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability,” as called for in the 2019 Global Fragility Act. To maximize the strategy’s efficacy, the U.S. government must ensure the implementation plan has a clear goal and theory of success, as well as addresses pressing challenges such as the fallout from COVID-19 and efforts to subvert peace. Chief among these challenges will be nonstate armed actors who are an entrenched driver of violence in nearly every potential priority country, from Central America to East Africa and beyond.

On February 18, the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at Brookings will hold a panel discussion examining how the U.S. government should think about working with, and through, nonstate armed actors in implementing the fragility strategy. The discussion will address the following questions: How should the Biden administration approach working with nonstate actors as a potential means to maximize efficacy of conflict prevention and stabilization? What, if any, broader changes should it make to engage such actors? What challenges and opportunities do nonstate armed actors pose in potential priority countries?

Speakers:

Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote): Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations – U.S. Department of State

Frances Z. Brown: Senior Fellow, Democracy, Governance, and Conflict Program – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

George Ingram: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development, Center for Sustainable Development

Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology

Vanda Felbab-Brown (Moderator): Director – Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors; Co-Director – Africa Security Initiative; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology

6. Turning a Blind Eye: the Human Cost of Trafficking | February 18, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Friends of Europe | Register

Human traffickers run sophisticated operations. Often bypassing border officials, national and local police – and on occasion the judiciary – human trafficking is intimately intertwined with migration. Reports have brought to light how women are taken by trafficking networks during their journey and face widespread sexual exploitation. And the danger does not end at the border – even after arriving at reception centres, shortages of police and guardians for unaccompanied children create hotspots for exploitation and smuggling.

There isn’t a major city in Europe that doesn’t benefit from human trafficking of women and girls. Furthermore, the proceeds of trafficking underpin illegal arms, drugs and terrorism. This is a sinister and dirty equation, and yet we in Europe largely turn a blind eye to it. Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, recently released its annual risk analysis, claiming to provide a comprehensive picture of the European Union’s migratory situation. Yet, missing from the picture – human trafficking and its significant impact on women and girls. As the European Commission looks towards its 2021-2025 Action Plan against migrant smuggling, it will be vital to address protections for those on the move and the relationship between human trafficking and organised crime.

This Policy Insight debate will broach the realities of migrant smuggling and address the steps that must be taken to ensure that people on the move can undertake safe and legal journeys.

Speakers:

Ana Christina Jorge: Director of Operational response Division at Frontex

Notis Mitiarachi: Greek Minister of Migration and Asylum

Malaika Oringo: Founder and CEO of Footprint to Freedom and member of the International Survivors of Trafficking Council

Monique Pariat: Director-General for Migration and Home Affairs (DG HOME) at the European Commission

Dharmendra Kanani: Director, Asia, Peace, Security and Defence, Digital and Chief Spokesperson

7. Libya: The great game. A decade of revolution, civil war and foreign intervention  | February 18, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Ten years after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Biden administration is facing renewed challenges in Libya. Placed at the center of great powers’ diverging geopolitical interests, such as those of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia, Libya will face enormous political, economic and security challenges in the foreseeable future. The Biden administration must now face the current state of play: The United States’ diplomatic absence has left the country in turmoil and facilitated the intervention of foreign powers in the country. 

The panel will explore the role of international actors in the post 2011 Libyan political landscape. The panel will also analyze their interactions, as well as the relationship these actors have with forces on the ground. Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East programs in collaboration with the Tripoli-based think tank Sadeq Institute for a public conversation to launch the upcoming publication of the Sadeq Institute’s book part of a long reads collection: Libya: the Great Game. A Decade of Revolution, Civil War and Intervention.

Speakers:

Steven A. Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

Marta Dassù: Senior Advisor for European Affairs, The Aspen Institute

Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute

Deborah K. Jones: Former United States Ambassador to Libya

Karim Mezran (Moderator): Director, North Africa Initiative, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council

8. Veterans, Novices, and Patterns of Rebel Recruitment ? | February 18, 2021 | 12:15 PM ET | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Register Here

Why do insurgents recruit experienced fighters at some times and untrained novices at others? Research suggests that insurgent organizations place a premium on committed members who demonstrate political devotion. But research also suggests that groups are willing to compromise on commitment when compelled by other priorities. The speaker will argue this extends to recruitment of experienced fighters who are capable and knowledgeable, but also less committed and generally riskier. Specifically, he expects groups will accept these risks and recruit veteran fighters when initially building their organization, when transitioning to new modes of warfare, and when competing with peer organizations for dominance.

At other times, groups should more readily focus their efforts on novices who can be molded to fit their less urgent operational needs. The speaker will evaluate this theory with a case study of Al Qaeda in Iraq and its successor, the Islamic State. This research sheds light on an understudied component of insurgent recruitment that has implications for organizational behavior, counterinsurgency, intergroup conflict, and civilian victimization.

Speakers:

Evan Perkoski: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

9. Is Now Finally the Time to Discuss Inequality in Lebanon? | February 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Here

Lebanon’s political economy has long been described as exceptional. The trope of a “Lebanese economic miracle,” in which Lebanon is a paragon of economic success, was long amplified by the ruling elite in order to maintain a status quo.

The 2019-2020 crises not only swept away this idea but also made blatant another kind of exceptionalism in the country—its record-high income and wealth inequality, which is perpetuated by the corrupt political economy. Extreme inequality is not a new phenomenon, however; rather it was brushed aside by the ruling elite, which largely consists of the nation’s wealthiest.

How can Lebanon create a new economic model that would put social justice at its core? Did the 2019 revolution create the opportunity to think and design policies that could decrease inequality levels? Join us for a conversation with Lydia Assouad, Toufic Gaspard, Haneen Sayed, and Gregg Carlstrom to discuss Lebanon’s worsening inequality and Assouad’s latest paper, Lebanon’s Political Economy: From Predatory to Self-Devouring, on Friday, February 19 from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Beirut (10:00-11:00 a.m. EST).

Speakers:

Lydia Assouad: El-Erian fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center where her research focuses on public and political economics.

Toufic Gaspard: Former senior economic adviser to the Lebanese minister of finance and adviser to the International Monetary Fund.

Haneen Sayed: Lead human development specialist at the World Bank.

Gregg Carlstrom: Middle East correspondent with The Economist.

10. The Syrian Civil War and its Aftermath | February 19, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Syria program is pleased to announce a panel discussion to launch Syrian Requiem: The Syrian Civil War and its Aftermath (Princeton University, 2021). In this volume, the authors trace the origins and escalation of the conflict from 2011 protests in Deraa to the current state of widespread humanitarian devastation and displacement a decade later.  

The authors will be joined by MEI Syria Program Advisory Council Member Rime Allaf and MEI Senior Fellow Robert Ford, who will reflect on the origins and development of this conflict and explore what avenues exist today toward reconciliation, humanitarian relief, or solutions for the millions of displaced Syrians around the world. 

Speakers:

Amb. (ret.) Itamar Rabinovich (author): President, the Israel Institute; Israel’s Chief Negotiator with Syria in 1990s

Carmit Valensi (author): Research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies

Rime Allaf: Advisory Council Member, MEI Syria Program

Amb. (ret.) Robert Ford: Senior fellow, MEI

Charles Lister (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Syria and CTE programs, MEI