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Turkey ascendant, Europe at odds, Libyans need to be heard

Ten years after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Biden administration is facing renewed challenges in Libya. Buffeted by the other powers’ diverging geopolitical interests, including those of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia, Libya will face enormous political, economic and security challenges in the foreseeable future. US diplomatic absence has left the country in turmoil and allowed the intervention of foreign powers. 

On February 18, the Atlantic Council hosted a panel exploring the role of international actors in the post 2011 Libyan political landscape. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:

Karim Mezran (Moderator): Director, North Africa Initiative, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council

Steven A. Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute

Deborah K. Jones: Former United States Ambassador to Libya

Roberto Menotti: Co-Executive Director, Aspen Economic Strategy Group

The US Role in Libya

Jones predicted that Libya will ultimately take a backseat in the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda. Instead, she expects Biden to focus on rebuilding alliances, handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and addressing climate change. To the extent that Biden’s foreign policy will intersect with the situation in Libya, it will likely be through a multilateral framework, such as NATO. Jones expressed optimism that the US will play a more assertive role in preventing destabilizing actions in Libya by external actors and will continue to play a role in counterterrorism. Ultimately, however, she cautioned that the US is no longer in a position to deliver decisive fiats through unilateral action in any arena in the world, including Libya.

European Tension Over Libya

Menotti argued that there is a “fundamental incoherence” in European policy vis-a-vis Libya. Despite the fact that European interests have always been most effectively pursued through collaboration, European action in Libya has remained fractured by national interests. These divisions are most clearly expressed through the competitive relationship between France and Italy in Libya, which has largely centered around strategic positioning over natural resources. However, Italy’s intervention in Libya can be characterized as tentative at best. Besides, there are sufficient resources in Libya for European countries to find room for mutual cooperation.

Regional Actors in Libya

Turkey’s intervention and stabilization efforts continue to be one of the defining regional elements of the conflict in Libya. However, the panelists disagreed about the prospects for these efforts. Jones remained confident that Turkey can remain a critical ally for the US in the Libyan arena, particularly given America’s diminished global standing and Turkey’s interest in reasserting itself internationally.

Other panelists acknowledged that Turkey’s military intervention has been surprisingly effective at stabilizing the situation in Libya. However, they were less optimistic about Turkey’s potential to act cooperatively with other international powers. Menotti noted that Turkey’s neo-Ottoman strategy has met the most success to date in Libya, suggesting that it will seek to further consolidate its position and influence there. Cook went further, arguing that Turkey and the US have increasingly diverged with respect to their goals and values. As a result, he expects that the US will struggle to find points of synergy with Turkey in Libya. Instead, America must expect to either oppose Turkey or get out of the way.

The UAE and the Gulf countries more broadly have also intervened in Libya in recent years. However, Jones, Cook, and Menotti agreed that the GCC has been an ineffective and destabilizing force in Libya, and they predicted that the Gulf countries will likely disengage from Libya in the near-term.

A Libyan Voice for Libya’s Future

While much of the discussion centered around the international forces at work in Libya, Gomati underlined the fact that the Libyan conflict is fundamentally about Libyans, no matter how many countries have sought to exert themselves in the power vacuum. The fundamental Libyan nature of this conflict has two important implications:

1. The conflict will not be resolved until Libyans resolve the disputes over the country’s political direction, national character, and ideological tone. This debate revolves around the role of the military in political and civil society.
2. European, American, and regional machinations cannot resolve these differences without the explicit buy-in of Libyans themselves.

While much of the ongoing discussions about Libya concern its international dynamics, we must not forget the voices of Libyans themselves.

To watch the event in full, please click here.