Peace Picks | March 1 – March 5, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream

1. Breaking the Tie: Security and Stability in Belarus | March 1, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here

For the past six months, Belarusians protesting for free and fair elections across the country have faced growing repression as strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka attempts to cling to power. The opposition has demonstrated staying power and growing political capital, but the army and the security services remain loyal to Lukashenka. This domestic stalemate also presents a strategic problem for the Kremlin, which seems to have no new ideas beyond some monetary support for Lukashenka’s regime.  Meanwhile the US and Europe have responded with modest financial sanctions against the discredited president and his cronies.

Do Lukashenka or Moscow have any new cards to play? Does the opposition? How will the situation in Belarus end and how will Washington, Brussels, and Moscow react?

Speakers:

Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer

Columnist with Novaya Gazeta, 

David Kramer

Senior Fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy

Valery Kavaleuski

Foreign Affairs Adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 

Dr. Marie Mendras

Professor at Sciences Po’s Paris School of International Affairs

Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)

Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

2. Red Flags Report Launch | March 2, 2021 |  1:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic International Studies | Register Here

China’s political and economic influence in the Western Balkans is on the rise, fueled in part by a regional demand for infrastructure which is satisfied by opaque deals in the ICT, energy, and transportation sectors. These projects present risks to good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, and digital security. Join CSIS for a virtual discussion of a new CSIS report which describes tools and actions critical for stakeholders to objectively evaluate and respond to these risks. The report concludes a three-part series which examined the nature and impact of Chinese economic influence in the Western Balkans and its implications for the region’s stability and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

Speakers:

Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote)

Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State

Heather A. Conley

Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, CSIS
Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS

Valerie Hopkins (Moderator)

South-East Europe Correspondent, The Financial Times

3. Lebanon: Challenges and Future Prospects| March 3, 2021 |  12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here

The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel to launch its Lebanon Program, focusing on Lebanon’s current state of affairs and potential US foreign policy options going forward. The months-long political stalemate and the unaddressed financial crisis keep pushing Lebanon further into chaos and uncertainty. In parallel, the new Biden administration is redefining the US stance vis-à-vis Iran and reassessing some of its bilateral relations in the region. Many of these changes will have direct implications for Lebanon. This distinguished panel will address these local and regional developments, think through ways US foreign policy towards Lebanon can be more nuanced and constructive, and highlight themes and signals that are worth paying attention to in the coming months.

Speakers:

Amb. (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel
President and CEO, American Task Force on Lebanon

May Nasrallah
Chairwoman, Lebanese International Finance Executives

Paul Salem
President, MEI

Mona Yacoubian
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace

Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, MEI

4. Agent Sonya: Moscow’s Most Daring Wartime Spy | March 3, 2021 |  12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here

Please join the Intelligence Project for a discussion with Ben MacIntyre on his latest book, Agent Sonya. This true-life spy story is a masterpiece about the Soviet intelligence officer code-named “Sonya.” Over the course of her career, she was hunted by the Chinese, the Japanese, the Nazis, MI5, MI6, and the FBI—and she evaded them all. Her story reflects the great ideological clash of the twentieth century—between Communism, Fascism, and Western democracy—and casts new light on the spy battles and shifting allegiances of our own times.

With unparalleled access to Sonya’s diaries and correspondence and never-before-seen information on her clandestine activities, Macintyre has conjured a page-turning history of a legendary secret agent, a woman who influenced the course of the Cold War and helped plunge the world into a decades-long standoff between nuclear superpowers.

Speakers:

Ben Macintyre

Author and Journalist, The Times

5. Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe | March 3, 2021 |  1:00 PM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here

In the wake of unprecedented domestic terror and national security threats in the form of mass shootings and insurrection in the nation’s capital, former Congresswoman & Wilson Center Director, President, and CEO Jane Harman offers her new book Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe (St. Martin’s Press; May 18, 2021), which chronicles how four consecutive administrations have failed to confront some of the toughest national security issues and suggests achievable fixes that can move us toward a safer future.

Please join Congresswoman Harman and New York Times national security correspondent and senior writer David Sanger for an in-depth conversation on the book and a discussion on better processes and more sound policy for the next generation of elected officials and the new administration.

Speakers:

Jane Harman

Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center

David Sanger

Former Distinguished Fellow, National Security Correspondent and Writer, the New York Times; Author, The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age

6. Religion, Ethnicity, and Charges Of Extremism: The Dynamics Of Inter-Communal Violence In Ethiopia| March 4, 2021 |  9:00 AM ET | European Institute of Peace| Register Here

In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of the Tigray crisis makes this understandable, but in its shadow, inter-communal tensions and conflicts have persisted across Ethiopia. In recent years there were numerous violent incidents, such as the Amhara regional ‘coup’ attempt of June 2019, the violence across Oromia in October 2019, and incidents around Timkat in Dire Dawa and Harar in January 2020.

A team of Ethiopian and international researchers – Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal Kadir, Muhammed Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye – studied two incidents of inter-communal violence: the attacks on mosques and (mostly) Muslim properties in Mota, Amhara region in December 2019 and the violence and destruction of properties in Shashemene and other towns in Oromia in July 2020. They will present their findings in this event, followed by discussion and Q&A.

Their research shows that in Ethiopia religion and ethnic violence overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised: the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.

Speakers:

Terje Østebø

University of Florida

Jörg Haustein

University of Cambridge

Sandy Wade (Moderator)

Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace

7. COVID-19 and Cooperation in Libya | March 4, 2021 |  9:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here

Libya is at a turning point after the U.N.-sponsored Libyan Political Dialogue Forum elected a temporary executive authority in February to unify the country and move toward elections by year’s end. However, sustainable peace cannot be achieved with only an agreement at the national level. And the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated economic challenges, strained the country’s health infrastructure, and added a new layer of complexity to the country’s conflict. Local-level cooperation—and linking these efforts to the national-level peace process—is of utmost importance to achieve a cohesive and peaceful country.

And despite a difficult year, there have been bright spots for Libya on this front. The COVID-19 pandemic yielded many examples of local-level initiatives where Libyans came together in challenging conditions to cooperate for a common goal. The hope is that these successes can lead to longer and more enduring areas of cooperation. 

Join USIP as we host Libya’s ambassador to the United States and Libyan civil society leaders for a look at stories of positive community cooperation during the current crisis—as well as a discussion on how Libyan and international organizations can build off these successes to navigate Libya’s complex conflict and ensure a peaceful future for the country.  

Speakers:

Wafa Bughaighis (Keynote speaker)
Libyan Ambassador to the United States

Ahmed Albibas
Director, Moomken Organization for Awareness and Media

Abdulrahman A. S. Elgheriani
President and CEO, Tanmia 360

Craig Browne
Program Policy Officer, World Food Programme

Nate Wilson (Moderator)
Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace

8. Unraveling the Conflict in Syria March 4, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here

In 2012, as the conflict in Syria continued to smolder, then-president Barack Obama made clear that any use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime would constitute a “red line” for U.S. engagement. Yet in the aftermath of a sarin attack outside Damascus just a year later, the Obama administration seized the opportunity to work with Russia on an ambitious plan to hunt down and remove chemical weapons rather than go to war. A decade later, the tangle of “heroes and villains” involved in that particular scenario is clearer. 

Speakers:

Joby Warrick

Author of Red Line

Maha Yahya

Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

9. The Future of ISIS March 4, 2021 |  11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

On October 27, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump announced that the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in Syria in an American special operation, striking a blow against an already weakened organization.

What ISIS accomplished during the period of its rise and growth represents a “quantum leap” in the ideology, strategies, and operating theories of terrorist groups, and requires deep analysis of the organization’s expected future trajectory. The Politics and Society Institute in Amman, Jordan, and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in Washington, DC, are pleased to co-host this expert discussion. This panel will shed light on what opportunities exist for policymakers to deal with the legacy of ISIS detainees and returnees, as well as on strategies against a potential resurgence in Iraq and Syria.

Speakers:

Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute
Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture

Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq

Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center

Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer

10. Strategic nuclear modernization in the United States| March 4, 2021 |  2:00 PM ET | Brookings Institutions| Register Here

What: As with prior administrations before it, the Biden administration is preparing to undertake a major review of the U.S. strategic nuclear modernization program. Though the U.S. arsenal has decreased in accordance with the New START treaty, new delivery systems are still being developed.

Supporters of the current program argue that implementation is critical for the United States’ ability to deter adversaries and reassure allies. Opponents argue that the current program is well in excess of deterrence requirements and is not affordable over the long term. During the review period, Congress will examine the current program as well as requested funding for these systems.

On Thursday, March 4, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a panel to discuss how the Biden administration will – and should – approach negotiations regarding the future of the strategic modernization program.

Speakers:

Tom Collina

Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund

Madelyn R. Creedon

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology

Franklin Miller

Principal, The Scowcroft Group

Amy Woolf

Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service

Frank A Rose

Co-Director and Foreign Policy Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology