Month: February 2021
Turkey ascendant, Europe at odds, Libyans need to be heard
Ten years after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Biden administration is facing renewed challenges in Libya. Buffeted by the other powers’ diverging geopolitical interests, including those of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia, Libya will face enormous political, economic and security challenges in the foreseeable future. US diplomatic absence has left the country in turmoil and allowed the intervention of foreign powers.
On February 18, the Atlantic Council hosted a panel exploring the role of international actors in the post 2011 Libyan political landscape. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Karim Mezran (Moderator): Director, North Africa Initiative, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Steven A. Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Deborah K. Jones: Former United States Ambassador to Libya
Roberto Menotti: Co-Executive Director, Aspen Economic Strategy Group
The US Role in Libya
Jones predicted that Libya will ultimately take a backseat in the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda. Instead, she expects Biden to focus on rebuilding alliances, handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and addressing climate change. To the extent that Biden’s foreign policy will intersect with the situation in Libya, it will likely be through a multilateral framework, such as NATO. Jones expressed optimism that the US will play a more assertive role in preventing destabilizing actions in Libya by external actors and will continue to play a role in counterterrorism. Ultimately, however, she cautioned that the US is no longer in a position to deliver decisive fiats through unilateral action in any arena in the world, including Libya.
European Tension Over Libya
Menotti argued that there is a “fundamental incoherence” in European policy vis-a-vis Libya. Despite the fact that European interests have always been most effectively pursued through collaboration, European action in Libya has remained fractured by national interests. These divisions are most clearly expressed through the competitive relationship between France and Italy in Libya, which has largely centered around strategic positioning over natural resources. However, Italy’s intervention in Libya can be characterized as tentative at best. Besides, there are sufficient resources in Libya for European countries to find room for mutual cooperation.
Regional Actors in Libya
Turkey’s intervention and stabilization efforts continue to be one of the defining regional elements of the conflict in Libya. However, the panelists disagreed about the prospects for these efforts. Jones remained confident that Turkey can remain a critical ally for the US in the Libyan arena, particularly given America’s diminished global standing and Turkey’s interest in reasserting itself internationally.
Other panelists acknowledged that Turkey’s military intervention has been surprisingly effective at stabilizing the situation in Libya. However, they were less optimistic about Turkey’s potential to act cooperatively with other international powers. Menotti noted that Turkey’s neo-Ottoman strategy has met the most success to date in Libya, suggesting that it will seek to further consolidate its position and influence there. Cook went further, arguing that Turkey and the US have increasingly diverged with respect to their goals and values. As a result, he expects that the US will struggle to find points of synergy with Turkey in Libya. Instead, America must expect to either oppose Turkey or get out of the way.
The UAE and the Gulf countries more broadly have also intervened in Libya in recent years. However, Jones, Cook, and Menotti agreed that the GCC has been an ineffective and destabilizing force in Libya, and they predicted that the Gulf countries will likely disengage from Libya in the near-term.
A Libyan Voice for Libya’s Future
While much of the discussion centered around the international forces at work in Libya, Gomati underlined the fact that the Libyan conflict is fundamentally about Libyans, no matter how many countries have sought to exert themselves in the power vacuum. The fundamental Libyan nature of this conflict has two important implications:
- The conflict will not be resolved until Libyans resolve the disputes over the country’s political direction, national character, and ideological tone. This debate revolves around the role of the military in political and civil society.
- European, American, and regional machinations cannot resolve these differences without the explicit buy-in of Libyans themselves.
While much of the ongoing discussions about Libya concern its international dynamics, we must not forget the voices of Libyans themselves.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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Stevenson’s army, February 23
– Spencer Ackerman says administration is reviewing drone and counter-terror operations.
– Pew says 1/4 of Democrats and GOP get their news only from partisan news bubbles.
– In week 6, you will play roles seeking policies to offset economic & technological aspects of the rise of China. Axios says the Biden people are doing the same already.
-Brookings author says Trump in effect amended the Constitution in 5 significant ways.
– Newly analyzed archives show that starting around 1907, the Army assigned black Buffalo Soldiers to West Point to teach cadets horsemanship.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Covid-19 is making things worse for Latin Americans
Cristina Camacho, a first-year International Development concentrator at SAIS, offers the following account of a February 17 even on “How Organized Crime is Evolving in Mexico and Central America” hosted by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA). The video is here.
Panelists:
• Luis Guillermo Solis, former President of Costa Rica, current Interim Director at the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University
• Andrew Selee, President of the Migration Policy Institute
• Sonja Wolf, Assistant Professor with the Drug Policy Program at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching in Mexico
• Cecilia Tornaghi (Moderator), Managing Editor at Americas Quarterly
Key Takeaways:
• Criminal groups, specifically cartels in Mexico and street gangs in Central America, have thrived during the pandemic.
• As law enforcement is otherwise occupied and courts slowed down, gangs and cartels are recruiting, loansharking, and profiting off extortion, drug trafficking, and smuggling migrants to the US.
• Local governments have been unable or unwilling to tackle violence. Institutions are weak. Corruption and impunity are rampant.
• Though homicide rates have decreased, this is only one measure of violence. In some cases, a decrease in homicide rates is a result of back-door deals with gangs, which may have electoral benefits for political leaders.
• The Biden administration should balance working directly with counterpart Presidents and with civil society/nonprofit organizations on the ground.
• The Biden administration’s efforts to reform asylum mechanisms and legal pathways to migration will take time to implement. In the short-term, migration will rise if migrants are not turned back at the border.
Criminal groups have thrived during COVID-19
While economies are failing, unemployment is rising. Communities are regressing into poverty. Local and transnational criminal organizations have thrived. This has been due to several factors. Law enforcement is concerned with other tasks (such as enforcing curfews), more people are unemployed and increasingly likely to join criminal groups or turn to them for loans, and courts are closed or delayed due to lockdowns.
This contributes to already alarming levels of impunity and signals to criminals that they won’t face legal repercussions. Criminal groups have also taken to handing out food baskets and assistance to local communities. These dynamics raise questions about the health of local institutions, strength of community organizations, and the capacity of local security forces.
There has also been increased demand for human smugglers, as people seek to migrate to the US. Smugglers have benefitted from this rise in demand and have increased their prices accordingly. Selee explained that that The US-Mexico border has been closed under Title 42, which allows public health concerns as a reason to expel migrants and asylum-seeker. This enables smugglers to charge higher prices and extort migrants stuck along the way to the U.S.
Interpol has warned criminal groups will try to traffic COVID-19 vaccines; panelists agreed that this is not unlikely.
Challenges for local governments
Though many leaders in Central America have learned to speak the language of democracy, anti-corruption, and human rights, their institutions are not equipped to tackle investigations or properly combat violence. Some leaders are benefitting from using this discourse but not effecting real change. For example, anti-corruption commissions in Honduras and El Salvador have been ineffective compared to the one in Guatemala. Homicide rates have decreased, but Wolf cautions that this positive trend is not an indicator that overall violence has decreased. Truces with street gangs have allowed the state more access to certain areas needing public goods and services, but this also has clear electoral benefits for leaders. Local leaders must strengthen institutions and combat corruption and impunity.
Challenges for the Biden Administration
Panelists agreed that President Biden must shift his focus from Trump’s hands-off approach, toward addressing root causes of violence in Central America and Mexico, including institutional strength and trustworthiness, rule of law, and providing citizens with a perceived opportunity for a viable future.
Another challenge for the administration will be to decide when to partner with civil society groups or nonprofits rather than foreign governments. According to Selee, during his time as Vice-President, Biden favored working with foreign presidents. However, many of them are now accused of corruption. Biden needs tot know when to work with other partner organizations on important issues where governments may not be willing to contribute, such as anti-corruption.
The Biden administration plans to include rebuilding asylum application mechanisms (making them more accessible) and increasing the availability of work visas (such as H2A visas) for Central Americans. In 2019, 260,000 H2A visas were granted to Mexican workers, but only 9,000 to Central Americans. Adding opportunities for legal migration would help decrease irregular migration. In the short-term and to discourage peaks in migration, Selee advocated continuing to turn back migrants at the border as the only effective way of discouraging migration.
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Stevenson’s army, February 22
– State allows NordStream2 to proceed, WSJ reports.
– Iran and IAEA reach inspections deal.
– OMB nominee in trouble.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | February 21 – February 26, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Restoring Humanitarian Access in Ethiopia | February 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 9:45 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has displaced millions, and created massive humanitarian need. Despite negotiated agreements with the United Nations, the federal government and ethnic militias continue to impede humanitarian access, disrupting the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to over 2 million people in need. Humanitarian organizations, and the international community, continue to demand full cooperation from the Ethiopian government to allow unfettered access, with limited results.
Speakers
Jan Egeland: Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council
Catherine Weisner: Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes
Daniel Bekele: Chief Commissioner of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program, CSIS
2. Priorities for U.S. Middle East Policy | February 22, 2021 | 9:05 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Meghan L. O’Sullivan: Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project – Harvard University
Will Hurd: Former Representative, R. Texas, U.S. Congress
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution
3. A conversation with US Acting Assistant Secretary Joey Hood on economic priorities in the Middle East | February 23, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The stability of the Middle East is highly dependent on economic prosperity. Unfortunately, a weakening economic outlook due to the decline in oil prices and ongoing regional conflicts is exacerbated by the pandemic. The young and growing demographics of the region require swift action to create jobs. Without a long-term regional economic strategy that empowers the region’s rich human capital to contribute meaningfully to the economy, we will continue to go from one crisis to the next. The pandemic is providing a strong catalyst for change and sparking economic diversification and growth.
Speakers
Joey Hood: Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Amjad Ahmad (moderator): Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
4. Security Challenges in Africa: 2021 and Beyond | February 24, 2021 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Terrorism and violent extremism are arguably Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. Their activities foment local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing already fragile political landscapes. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by U.S. and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. Unless local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism are included in strategies to prevent violent extremism, Africa’s many national and regional efforts will fail to deliver sustainable and credible peace.
Speakers
Dr. Alastair Reed: Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network
Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Bethany L. McGann: Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network
5. Iranian public opinion in the Biden era | February 24, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The election of President Biden has raised expectations for a restoration of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland recently completed a poll of Iranian public opinion on these and other relevant issues. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the poll results and their implications for US-Iran diplomacy.
Speakers
Nancy Gallagher: Director, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland
Ellie Geranmayeh: Senior Policy Fellow, Deputy Head of Middle East and North Africa Program, European Council on Foreign Relations
Ilan Goldenberg: Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Barbara Slavin (moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
6. A New Strategy for U.S. Engagement in North Africa | February 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Ten years after the Arab Spring, the socioeconomic and governance grievances that fueled the 2010-2011 uprisings are still prevalent across North Africa, and many have worsened in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite North African activists and officials pushing for reform, the region has received little U.S. support. Now, the new Biden administration has an opportunity to prioritize North Africa. The United States can ensure long-term stability by working with European and multilateral partners to counter Russian and Chinese influence and support the people’s demands for greater voice and accountability in the region.
Speakers
Daniel Rubinstein: Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Karim El Aynaoui: President, Policy Center for the New South
Nancy Okail: Visiting Scholar, Center for Development, Democracy, and Rule of Law, Stanford University
Youssef Cherif: Director, Columbia Global Centers Tunis
7. The Bull Moose and the Bear: Theodore Roosevelt and the Deep Origins of Russian Disinformation | February 25, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
During Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency, Jews in the Russian Empire were subjected to brutal pogroms that claimed thousands of lives. Americans rallied behind the embattled Jewish community and pressed Roosevelt to take action on the global stage. Russia, in turn, fed lies to the press in the United States in a bid to manipulate the public and the president. This seminar explores this little-known episode in U.S. history and considers its implications for Russian-American relations today.
Speakers
Andrew Porwancher: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program
8. Palestine and the Progressive Movement in the United States | February 25, 2021 | 3:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
How can a U.S. policy toward Palestine align more closely with progressive principles? What are the chief obstacles to promoting a justice-oriented approach to Israel/Palestine in the American political sphere? Will the election of new progressive leaders to Congress make this goal more attainable than in the past? To answer these and other questions, please join MEI for a public webinar and book talk with Marc Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick, coauthors of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.
Speakers
Marc Lamont Hill: Steve Charles Professor of Media, Cities, and Solutions, Temple University
Mitchell Plitnick: President, ReThinking Foreign Policy
Khaled Elgindy (moderator): Senior Fellow, MEI
9. The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
In August 2013, a massive sarin attack in the Damascus suburbs shocked the world and confronted the Obama White House with an agonizing choice: Whether to enforce the president’s “red line” threat with a military strike, or gamble on a diplomatic solution that offered the appealing prospect of the complete elimination of Syria’s strategic chemical weapons stockpile. Ultimately a deal was struck, and within days the race was on to extract and destroy hundreds of tons of lethal chemicals stashed in military bunkers across Syria, in the middle of a civil war. In his new book Red Line, journalist and author Joby Warrick draws from new documents and hundreds of interviews to reconstruct the key decision points as well as the unprecedented international effort to remove the weapons under fire and then—when no country was willing to accept Syria’s chemicals—to destroy them at sea.
Speakers
James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Joby Warrick: Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center
Robert S. Litwick (moderator): Director, International Security Studies, Wilson Center
10. Dealing with conflicts and their aftermath | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Gregory D. Johnson: Nonresident Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Jomana Qaddour: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary: Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy
Daniel L. Byman: Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
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Stevenson’s army, February 20
– President Biden’s speech to the Munich Security Conference signaled several policy changes.
– NYT says US is trying to avoid red lines with Iran.
– Although Biden hasn’t called anyone in the Saudi leadership, SecDef Austin spoke to MBS.
-Report to UNSC says Erik Prince helped organize mercenary army for Libya.
– FP reports disagreement in State over Uighur “genocide” label.
– Lawfare piece says China coast guard law violates Law of Sea treaty.
-Defense One article analyzes China’s military-civil fusion plan.
I don’t agree with everything I send around. Here’s an example. Several former intelligence officials argue that cyber deterrence requires strong offensive capability I have long believed that the US has a cult of the offensive preoccupation with cyber offense and that we need much more spending for defense and resiliency.
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