Month: March 2021
The future of the Islamic State
The Atlantic Council March 4 hosted an event to discuss the group’s current activities and prospects of an ISIS resurgence, including the Caliphate’s impact and demise (2014-17), as well as current and future ISIS activities not only within Syria and Iraq but throughout the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute; Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture
Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq
Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center
Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer
Resurgence Unlikely:
Moderator Banan Malkawi described the ISIS insurgency as a watershed moment for violent extremism. We need to ask “What are the key expectations for the future of the Islamic State as an organization?” The consensus was that an ISIS resurgence is unlikely, though all the speakers acknowledged the threat that the group still poses within the remote pockets where they continue to operate.
Revkin discussed her experiences doing fieldwork in Iraq, noting that conversations she has had with Iraqis suggest there is no easy way to accurately assess the threat ISIS poses to Iraqi society. Just counting weapons and people involved in ISIS activity will not work without examining the socioeconomic and political environment that the group is operating in today. There are multiple drivers of instability in Iraq, only few of which are directly attributed to ISIS. An ISIS resurgence to their 2014 capacity is nearly impossible because of the violence they committed against Sunni communities. They just don’t have the necessary levels of public support.
Sectarian Divisions and Deal Making:
Peek agreed. The viability of a ISIS resurgence is limited, because Sunni politics is marked by pragmatism and deal making. An ISIS resurgence is more likely to happen in Syria than in Iraq, but the chances of either are still limited as long as the Syrian Democratic Forces (and their partnership with the United States) remains strong. “It is a dark time for Sunnis in the Levant,” he said.
Daragahi explained the structure of ISIS and noted the group thrives in ungoverned areas. Its social media and internet strategy has shifted into darker, more secure corners of the internet. ISIS has had to redirect its thinking and recruitment tactics in order to continue to survive. It exploits failed states, whether in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sub-Saharan Africa or other pockets of the world. Thriving on grievances is how the group has managed to stay alive, albeit in a lowered capacity.
The rise of Salafi jihadism and sectarianism have been the keys to ISIS survival, according to Mohammed Abu Rumman. Some of the theories that have emerged in recent months regarding the group and their external support from partners and governments were shot down by both Daragahi and Rumman. ISIS will continue to operate in ways that ensure its survival, but the group will likely remain self-funded.
The international community and governments that have been working to delegitimize ISIS should continue, as countries such as Iraq and Syria still face threats from the group and feel the residual impact from its time in power.
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Stevenson’s army, March 8
– FT says Biden plans to use Quad [Australia, India, Japan, US] for talks about China.
– US is pressing an interim power-sharing plan for Afghanistan. Here’s the actual letter, leaked to Afghanistan’s TOLOnews.
– NYT says US plans a series of retaliations for Russian hacking, with China in the background.
– The Hill has neat depictions of the Oval office for various presidents.
– Sen. Manchin favors a more painful filibuster.
– Cost-sharing deal reached with South Korea.
– China announces 6.8% increase in its defense budget.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | March 8 – March 12, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The Women Who Took on ISIS | March 8, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Speakers
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon: Author, Journalist, and a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Beverly Kirk: Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, CSIS
Nina Easton: Non-resident Senior Associate
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power celebration of International Women’s Day featuring New York Times best-selling author Gayle Tzemach Lemmon. She will discuss her new book, The Daughters of Kobani (2021), her best-selling book Ashley’s War: The Untold Story of a Team of Women Soldiers on the Special Ops Battlefield (2015), which is being made into a major motion picture, and her extensive research and experience covering the women who serve and live in conflict-affected areas of the world.
2. The Politics of History in Saudi Arabia | March 8, 2021 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Rosie Bsheer: Harvard University
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Eric Arneson (moderator): Professor of History, George Washington University
Sherene Seikaly: Professory, University of California Santa Barbara
Asher Orkaby: Fellow, Wilson Center
3. The Voices of South Sudan’s Women | March 8, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins: Founder and Executive Director, Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation
Rita Lopidia: Executive Director, EVE Organization for Women Development
Nyachangkuoth Rambang Tai: Special Assistant, Chairperson Advisor to the African Union
Susan Stigant: Director, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
In recent years, South Sudanese women have made significant strides in their push for inclusion in national peace processes. Women negotiators were crucial in shaping the 2018 peace agreement—revitalizing what had been a stalled and contentious process—and also secured a new quota that requires 35 percent of government representatives to be women, opening the door for a more expansive role in national affairs. But despite these signs of progress, women’s voices remain conspicuously absent among publicly written narratives of South Sudan, which continue to be dominated by the opinions, analysis, and stories of male writers. In celebration of International Women’s Day, please join USIP, Oxfam International, and FEMRITE—the Ugandan Women Writers Association—for a discussion about how women’s literary voices can contribute to building a deeper understanding of the impact of conflict in South Sudan and inspire progress toward peace.
4. US-German and trans-Atlantic relations in the 21st century | March 9, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
John Allen: President, Brookings Institution
H. E. Heiko Maas: Federal Foreign Minister, Federal Republic of Germany
H. E. Emily Haber: German Ambassador to the United States
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Constanze Stelzenmüller: Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Since the end of the Second World War, trans-Atlantic relations have been the bedrock of the rules-based international order. The development of a prosperous, democratic, and reunited Germany stands as a testament to the results of more than 75 years of trans-Atlantic cooperation. Today, the United States, Germany, Europe, and the larger international order are beset by numerous challenges, from illiberal actors at home to challenges posed by authoritarian strategic competitors like China and Russia. On Tuesday, March 9, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas for a keynote address in honor of the launch of the Fritz Stern chair, followed by a panel discussion considering the current state of U.S.-German and U.S.-European relations and the prospects for reform to best address the challenges of the 21st century.
5. Ending the Yemen conflict – Voices of local peace-builders | March 9, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Radhya Al-Mutawakel: Co-founder and Chairperson, Mwatana for Human Rights
Rasha Jarhum: Founder and Director, Peace Track Initiative
Muna Luqman: Executive Director, Food4Humanity
Helena Gronberg: Program Director, Better Peace Initiative, ICAN
Ellie Geranmayeh (moderator): Deputy Director, MENA program, ECFR
After six years of conflict, culminating in what the UN has labelled the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis, the new Biden administration has vowed to redouble US support to the political process in Yemen. But despite recent momentum, securing peace in Yemen is going to be immensely challenging and the humanitarian situation looks set to worsen this year. This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support, including by helping broker negotiations on the ground, while also advocating for human rights, the release of detainees and ceasefires. The discussion will explore why and how these efforts should be included in the UN-led political process in Yemen.
6. The Arab Spring: Precursor to the disinformation age? | March 10, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Rasha A. Abdulla: Professor, Journalism and Mass Communication Department, The American University in Cairo (AUC)
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow and Managing Director, DFRLab, Atlantic Council
Borzou Daragahi: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
As we mark the 10th anniversary of the revolutions across North Africa and the Middle East collectively known as the Arab Spring, one question that remains unanswered is whether the use of social media during the that time presaged today’s world of rampant disinformation, coordinated online trolls and weaponized information. While most governments were initially caught flat-footed when it came to using the Internet in response to these revolutions, manipulating information to maintain domestic control is increasingly commonplace. How did we get here? In this virtual event organized by The Atlantic Council, we will explore how social media was turned on its head over the course of a single decade from a symbol of hope to a tool for manipulation.
7. Bridging the Divide Between Elite and Grassroots Anti-Corruption Activists | March 10, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Abigail Bellows: Non-resident scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bruno Brandão: Director, Transparency International-Brazil
Hussein Khalid: Executive Director, HAKI Africa
Ketakandriana Refitoson: Executive Director, Transparency International-Madagascar
Nada Zohdy: Director, Open Gov Hub
Around the world, ineffective and even fraudulent responses by governments to COVID-19 have escalated citizens’ demands for greater transparency and accountability and civil society actors are responding to meet that need. But tangible progress against corruption will require more than just showing up. It will necessitate cooperation between “elite” and “grassroots” civil society organizations. This event will feature three leading practitioners on how they forge civic partnerships in the era of COVID-19.
8. Reflections on US-China Relations | March 10, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 9:30 AM ET | Hoover Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Matt Pottinger: Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution
Elizabeth Economy: Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
H.R. McMaster: Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
The Hoover Institution will host a discussion about the great-power competition between the United States and China, the rising risks for Western businesses in China, and the strategic pitfalls the West must avoid. After his remarks, Matt Pottinger will join Hoover Institution Fellows Elizabeth Economy and H.R. McMaster in conversation.
9. Light Water Capitalism: Nonproliferation and U.S. Global Power | March 11, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Jayita Sarkar: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program
How do the exports of U.S. power reactors relate to nonproliferation, global capitalism, and U.S. empire? And what does that tell us about the dominance by design of U.S. government and businesses in the decolonized world, where they promised development but delivered debt? This seminar pursues this inquiry through investigating the role of the light water reactor as an instrument of U.S. nonproliferation policy from the mid-1950s until the end of the 1980s.
10. MEI Defense Leadership Series: Episode 11 with Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Simone Ledeen | March 12, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Speakers
Bilal Y. Saab: Director, Defense and Security Program, MEI
Simone Ledeen: Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East
In this episode, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program Bilal Y. Saab speaks to former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Simone Ledeen, currently a Nonresident Senior Fellow with MEI’s Defense and Security Program. This conversation will focus on U.S. policies toward the Middle East during the Trump administration and lessons learned. Saab will be taking audience questions throughout, and factor as many as possible into the discussion.
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Stevenson’s army, March 7
– Why are centrists losing?
– Why are Latino men trending Republican?
– Is now like the politics of the Gilded Age, when parties were strong but identity-based rather than class based? [I was shocked to learn that in the elections of 1880 and 1888 turnout was over 80%]
– NYT discovers that US stockpile was short of masks and ventilators because officials prioritized anthrax vaccine in response to clever lobbying.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 6
President Biden sent his first notification to Congress of his use of war powers.
John Bellinger analyzes it.
NYT reviews options being considered for a new AUMF.
Lawfare also analyzes Biden’s use of Defense Production Act.
FP lists new Biden staffers on Middle East issues.
FT says Iran ready to resume nuclear talks, softening conditions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Lebanon is collapsing, so what is to be done?
Cassia King, a first-year Conflict Management student at Johns Hopkins/SAIS, writes:
To launch its new Lebanon Program, the Middle East Institute March 3 hosted a panel discussion on the current state of Lebanon and what kind of policies we should expect from the Biden administration in the country and region. Panelists included:
- Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator), MEI Lebanon Program Director
- Ambassador (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel, President of the American Task Force on Lebanon
- May Nasrallah, Chairwoman of the Lebanese International Finance Executives
- Paul Salem, President of the Middle East Institute
- Mona Yacoubian, Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Lebanon is in the midst of political and economic crisis. This week the value of the Lebanese pound hit a record low of 10,000 to the dollar. Nationwide protests erupted again March 2 while over 50 percent of the population slips into poverty. Lebanon is scheduled to have parliamentary and presidential elections in 2022. This could be the year that President Michel Aoun and House Speaker Nabih Berry are replaced.
Salem noted that Lebanon is at its lowest point in history. There is no consensus about what the nature of Lebanon is, whether it is independent and sovereign, or attached to other powers. The October 2019 revolt triggered by deteriorating economic conditions shook the political class but did not replace it. The old political order is dying, but the new order has yet to be born. Regionally, Lebanon is embedded in two major dynamics: US talks with Iran and the Abraham Accords. Salem stressed that we (US and international community) must insist that the 2022 elections occur on schedule. Those advocating for change still need to unify and get prepared for the elections with candidates that have real backing. As we have seen across the region, there can be powerful protests but failed election change.
Nasrallah highlighted Lebanon’s economic meltdown. The public sector is hemorrhaging and unable to produce. The government cannot service its debt, as witnessed last year when it first failed to make a $1.2 billion loan payment. The banking sector is shut down and unable to function. People have lost access to their funds. There is no end in sight for the continued collapse of the lira. COVID-19 has caused the health care system to collapse.
Stressing that Lebanon needs leadership with strategy and a plan of execution, Nasrallah remarked there is no sign of intent to fix Lebanon’s problems from its political leadership. The IMF has been waiting on standby for a good year or two. Lebanon needs a small, interim government of experts with exceptional powers to act without the parliament. This should be coordinated with central bank reform.
Yacoubian and Gabriel discussed the Washington perspective and expectations of the Biden administration.
Yacoubian stressed that Lebanon is collapsing. By every indicator the country is failing, not only economically but also in security terms. The protests that are happening now are NOT like the ones in October that were jubilant and full of hope for real change. Protesters are angry and are generating chaos and violence. Yacoubian also warned new waves of displacement could be sparked by this crisis. Lebanon’s most desperate are attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Cyprus in small boats. The Biden administration clearly has a lot on its plate, but if Lebanon is not engaged now, the US will be forced to engage later in ways that are far more costly. The US should use its power/leverage to do two things: pressure the political class to put together a government of experts, like Nasrallah suggested, and increase food aid from WFP to alleviate suffering without letting the “cronies” off the hook.
Gabriel filled in the picture on what can be expected from the Biden administration. Globally, it is focused on rebuilding trust with allies in Europe and Asia and managing great power competition to ensure Russia and China don’t become primary brokers, which could be a concern in Lebanon. The Biden administration has three default buttons: engagement (strengthened US diplomacy), values (human rights, minority inclusion), and collective action (working with like-minded countries). The Abraham Accords will be encouraged, and Palestinian aid will be reconstituted alongside an emphasis on the two-state solution. Hady Amr at the State Department will bring back a sense of trust.
On Lebanon specifically, the Biden administration will stand firm against bailing out a corrupt government and continue its support for the Lebanese Armed Forces. Two additional pragmatic steps are desirable: the creation of a fund within the next 90 days for humanitarian and civil society needs, and a high-level visit to Lebanon from US and French officials to push for the formation of a reform-minded government.
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