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Iraq in a far better place than Yemen and Syria

Evan Horn, a first-year master’s student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, writes:

The Brookings Institution February 26 hosted a webinar on “The Middle East and the New US Administration: Dealing with conflicts and their aftermath.”
Panelists included:
• Daniel L. Byman (moderator), Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
• Jomana Qaddour, Nonresident Senior Fellow and Head of Syria Portfolio, Atlantic
Council
• Marsin Alshamary, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institute
• Gregory D. Johnson, Nonresident Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Summary
This topical discussion revolved around three cases – Yemen, Syria, and Iraq – and featured experts on each to inform listeners on the geopolitical and humanitarian situations unfolding . Focal points included Iranian influence and the new administration’s outlook. Key takeaways from each
country expert are below.

Yemen
Johnson was pessimistic that Yemen can be reconstituted as a single state, let alone as two separate states. He asserted that there are “seven or eight different Yemens on different trajectories right now.” While we talk about one war, there are actually three:

1) the US-led counterterrorism effort,

2) the Saudi regional war, and

3) the local Yemeni civil war.

Key points included:

Despite the focus on the Saudi effort, this war will end at some point and the local Yemeni civil war will take center stage. The anti-Houthi coalition led by the Saudis is fracturing, and once the Saudis withdraw, different armed groups and warlords will use violence to seize power and territory.

The world’s worst humanitarian crisis is escalating as the Saudis prevent food and medical supplies from entering Yemen, hoping the people will rebel against the Houthis, but this isn’t likely.

The US needs to work on ending the civil war or “risk Humpty Dumpty not being put together again.” It should prioritize safe passage and delivery of humanitarian supplies. The US should also use its leverage to end the Saudi-led regional war and open up the country to transport of food, goods, and supplies.

Syria
Qaddour outlined the situation in Syria by highlighting the vast economic challenges posed by US and European sanctions on an “unresponsive regime that doesn’t intend to capitulate,” 13 million refugees and displaced persons, and a spiraling humanitarian situation. The new Biden administration has all but flatly stated that it doesn’t consider Syria a priority despite its being the center of US foreign policy objectives, including great power competition, the need to curb Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in the Middle East, and strengthening
multilateral institutions.

Key points included:

• Syria remains a setting for Russian expansionary influence (Moscow serves as chief broker) and China also offers an autocratic source of support in contrast to the US.
• Iran “saved” the Syrian regime by supplying troops and holds a lot of sway.
• The US can play a key role in deterring Iranian aggression by continuing targeted strikes against Iran’s militia activity and by engaging this “parallel track” to a return to the JCPOA (or whatever next incarnation is reached).

This suggests finding a way to keep talks alive while preventing Iranian proxies and militias from continuing to repress activists, assassinate dissidents, and engage in other destabilizing measures.

Iraq
Alshamary emphasized that Iraq is in a very different position than the situations in Yemen and Syria. Unlike the previous two, it is not at the height of its respective wars or humanitarian crises. It is not yet a democracy, but rather in the process of democratization, and is undergoing
the arduous path to achieve it.

Key points included:

• Number one priority must be security and stability, as a sustainable economy cannot be reached until the prerequisite of a safe and secure environment is maintained.
• The US and regional allies can promote stability first and foremost by finding a resolution with Iran, as their disagreements and disputes tend to have a destabilizing effect on everyone else.
• Considering Iraq’s unique cultural and religious relationship with Iran, she added that Iraq could serve as a mediator between the US and Iran
• Emphasized the need to preserve Iraqi sovereignty while supporting local civic leaders who have power due to weak national leadership
• Role for the US: support education, freedom of speech, and ability to protest in a safe & secure environment.