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Peace Picks | April 19 – April 23, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream

1. The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum | April 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM CEST | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here

Speakers

Iryna Solonenko: Senior Fellow, LibMod, Berlin

Maxim Samorukov: Policy Fellow, Carnegie Center, Moscow

Gustav Gressel: Senior Policy Fellow, Wider Europe programme, ECFR

Joanna Hosa (moderator): Deputy Director, Wider Europe programme, ECFR

Since the end of March, Russia has been building up military forces alongside its border with Ukraine. Disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv (and the West) about the end-state and a way to implement the Minsk-agreement have existed since the very signing of the treaty. Yet, tensions between the two sides have grown over the past three months. What are the perceptions of the situation in Moscow, Kyiv and in the EU? What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond? And finally, how to solve the Minsk-conundrum: an agreement that is both un-implementable (because of its vagueness) but also indispensable (because the post-hot war status quo rests on it)?

2. Defense Project Series: A Talk with HR McMaster on Global Security | April 19, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here

Speakers

Lieutenant General (ret.) H. R. McMaster: Former National Security Advisor

Major General (ret.) Bill Rapp (moderator): Lecturer in Military Affairs, Harvard University

Please join MG(Ret) Bill Rapp in a lively talk with HR McMaster, former National Security Advisor and retired Lieutenant General, as McMaster discusses global security challenges for the United States and its allies in the coming decade.  McMaster calls for cleared eyed recognition of major threats facing the U.S. and to avoid the hubris that has marked much of the last thirty years of foreign policy.

3. Online influence in Georgia: A geopolitical crossroads | April 19, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Speakers

Peter Wiebler: Mission Director, Georgia, USAID

Diana Chachua: Program and Communications Manager, Georgia, National Democratic Institute

David Stulik: Head of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy 

Eto Buziashvili: Research Associate, Caucases, Digital Forensic Research Lab

Givi Gigitashvili: Research Assistant, Caucases, Digital Forensic Research Lab

Ia Meurmishvili (moderator): Senior Editor, TV Anchor, Journalist, Voice of America

The pre-election period in Georgia was characterized by a high degree of societal polarization, which was largely reflected in the country’s information environment. Domestic political actors undertook multiple inauthentic activities on Facebook to advance their political goals and mislead people. Beyond the domestic operations, the strategic public release of stolen documents ahead of elections by external actors was a new phenomenon for Georgia, as was the release generated widespread controversy and confusion. Georgian elections were also the target of Kremlin-led disruptions online whose primary objective was to instill a sense of vulnerability and demoralize Georgian voters.

Foreign interference and influence efforts remain a driving issue in the country of Georgia. In the DFRLab’s latest report, Fighting for the Hearts and Minds of Sakartvelo: The Georgian information environment during the 2020 parliamentary election, our regional experts provided primary source and technical analysis of how various actors – foreign and domestic – attempted to manipulate public opinion and influence recent election results, especially online. This conversation will begin with an overview of Georgians’ the national information environment, and panelists will explore the perceptions about, evidence of, and interplay between foreign and domestic attempts at influence operations in the recent 2020 elections.

4. Sustainable US presence in the Middle East: Balancing short and long-term needs | April 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Speakers

Daniel L. Magruder Jr. (moderator): Federal Executive Fellow, Brookings Institution

Emma Ashford: Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

Michael E. O’Hanlon: Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology

Robert Pape: Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago

Becca Wasser: Fellow, Center for a New American Security

The president’s Interim National Security Guidance states that in the Middle East, “we will right-size our military presence to the level required to disrupt international terrorist networks, deter Iranian aggression, and protect other vital U.S. interests.” Against this backdrop are many questions concerning how the U.S. can balance its military commitments in the Middle East while also prioritizing longer-term progress. Is the current force posture necessary to support a more limited view of U.S. interests in the region, and are these commitments sustainable?  Do current commitments in the region create unnecessary risks and constrain strategic choices to prepare for the future? What are the long-term trade-offs of more, or less, U.S. presence in the Middle East? On April 19, Foreign Policy at Brookings will convene a panel of practitioners, academics, and policy experts to address these key questions and discuss what a sustainable military presence in the Middle East looks like.

5. A New U.S. Approach to Israel-Palestine | April 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here

Speakers

Salih Booker: President and CEO, the Center for International Policy

Khaled Elgindy: Senior Fellow, the Middle East Institute

Lara Friedman: President, the Foundation for Middle East Peace

Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Zaha Hassan: Visiting Fellow, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Daniel Levy: President of the U.S. / Middle East Project

Ishaan Tharoor (moderator): Columnist, Washington Post

After three decades of an Israel-Palestine peace process that has entrenched occupation and seen settler numbers in the West Bank quadruple, it is time for a U.S. policy reset on conflict resolution. How can this U.S. administration help shift political calculations of Palestinians and Israelis, alter the negative trajectory of realities on the ground, and rebuild prospects for a durable peace? Please join co-authors Marwan Muasher, Zaha Hassan, and Daniel Levy for the launch of a paper calling for a new U.S. approach to the conflict that prioritizes the rights and human security of Palestinians and Israelis.

6. Civil Resistance Transitions: Dialogue, Trust and Democracy | April 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

Speakers

Zied Boussen: Tunisian Activist and Researcher

Veronique Dudouet: Senior Research Advisor, Berghof Foundation

Zahra Hayder: Sudanese Activist and Organizer

Roman-Gabriel Olar: Assistant Professor, Trinity College Dublin

Jonathan Pinckney: Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace

Lise Grande (moderator): President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace

Political transitions initiated through nonviolent action are more than three times as likely to end in peace and democracy than any other form of transition. Yet prominent cases such as the “Arab Spring” revolutions in Egypt and Syria — in which nonviolent action resulted in returns to authoritarianism or devastating civil war — show that this relationship is far from easy or direct. And even when some form of democracy is achieved, many young democracies struggle to gain the trust necessary for long-term peace and stability. How can movements navigate this uncertain road from a breakthrough against authoritarianism to long-term sustainable democracy? To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP and the Berghof Foundation for the third in a series of four events on people power, peace and democracy. The event series will highlight multiple groundbreaking research projects and feature insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.

7. Business As Usual or Time for Change? Revisiting U.S. Strategy in the Middle East | April 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

Speakers

Dalia Dassa Kaye: Fellow, RAND Corporation

Ilan Goldenberg: Director, Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security

Michele Dunn: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

James F. Jeffrey (moderator): Chair of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center

This roundtable will feature experts representing a variety of think tanks who have recently issued reports on U.S. Middle East strategy. With the start of a new Administration, this is an opportune moment for Washington to rethink some of the fundamental premises underlying American policymaking in the Middle East and to review how America engages the region. The experts will compare ideas and approaches, exploring whether new policy directions are possible for a region still mired in conflict.

8. Afghanistan’s Next Chapter: What Happens as U.S. Troops Leave? | April 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

Speakers

Haseeb Humayoon: Partner, Qara Consulting, LLC

Laurel Miller: Program Director, Asia, International Crisis Group 

Dipali Mukhopadhyay: Senior Expert on Afghanistan Peace Processes, U.S Institute of Peace

Nader Nadery: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Chairman of the Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission 

Muqaddesa Yourish: Country Director, Lapis Communications 

Scott Worden (moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace

President Biden has announced that the United States will withdraw all remaining military forces from Afghanistan before September 11, 2021 — likely marking a definitive end to America’s longest war just months before its two-decade anniversary. The decision fundamentally changes the dynamics of the Afghan peace process, as the Taliban have defined their insurgency by opposition to perceived occupation by foreign troops. With those troops leaving, will the Taliban negotiate with fellow Afghans or seek an outright military victory? And will U.S. troop withdrawal push Afghans to unify around preserving the current democratic constitution, or to seek deals that give the Taliban more power in a political settlement to the conflict? Join USIP for a discussion with leading experts on the immediate implications of these developments, as well as a look at what the future of the Afghan conflict and peace process might look like as U.S. troops begin a final withdrawal from the country.

9. COVID-19 and Political Systems – Insights and Lessons One Year In | April 22, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:15 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here

Speakers

Sandra Breka: Member, the Board of Management at the Robert Bosch Stiftung

Thomas Caruthers: Interim President, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Chan Heng Chee: Ambassador-at-Large, the Singapore Foreign Ministry

Ivan Krastev: Permanent Fellow, the Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna

Ngaire Woods: Founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and professor of Global Economic Governance, Oxford University

COVID-19 has put pressure on political systems everywhere to deliver effective governance on an emergency basis. Within months of the pandemic’s arrival, it became clear the key determinant for meeting this challenge was not whether a political system was authoritarian or democratic, but whether a system had an adequate degree of state capacity, preparedness, and public trust.

Now a year into the pandemic, new political challenges have emerged. For democracies, what lessons and reforms will they address following the crisis? For authoritarians, will their many power-grabs from the start of the pandemic become permanent? Also in question is whether populist political forces will benefit or suffer from their leadership, given rising public discontent spurred by pandemic restrictions and mismanagement and yet the greater appreciation for scientific advancements. Finally, the relatively good performance of Asian nations—democratic and authoritarian—relative to Western nations and supranational bodies, suggests a shifting landscape of global power.

10. The Arctic as Emerging Geopolitical Flashpoint | April 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

Robert Huebert (moderator): Associate Professor, University of Calgary

Michael Byers: Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law, University of British Columbia

Rear Admiral Martin La Cour-Andersen: Defense Attaché to the United States and Canada, Embassy of Denmark in the United States, Danish Department of Defense

Rebecca Pincus: Assistant Professor at the United States Naval War College

Jonathon Quinn: Director General of Continental Defence, Department of National Defence, Government of Canada

The Arctic feels the impact of climate change more intensely than the rest of the globe. Regardless of national and international efforts to mitigate the emissions that drive climate change, much of the ongoing change in the Arctic is already established and will continue to accelerate. These changes will dramatically affect not only the Arctic’s environment, but also its security, defense, and ability to be exploited for its resources and used for transportation. This year’s annual conference will delve into these emerging issues in the Arctic from the perspective of trans-border impact, initiatives and need for cooperation. Our expert panelists and distinguished lecturers will cover issues ranging from the concrete change taking place, to emerging national security issues, to economic growth and regulation, to the impact on and role of indigenous peoples. Our guests and presenters from government, academia, and industry will review these topics from their national and sector viewpoints and engage the audience in much-needed dialogue on the issues.