The UAE as peace brokers

In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Yousef Al Otaiba discuss the Abraham Accords, the threat from Iran, and great power competition in the Middle East. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:

Yousef Al Otaiba: United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ambassador to the United States (US)

H. R. McMaster: Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The Abraham Accords and Normalization with Israel

The defining feature of the discussion between Ambassador Otaiba and McMaster was the rapidly evolving dynamics of both the Gulf and the Middle East writ large. Nowhere is that more true than with respect to Israel and the recently signed Abraham Accords. Otaiba in particular stressed that people in the region are tired of decades-long conflicts and are increasingly desirous of new approaches to old problems. One indication of how widespread this desire for change is is how quickly three countries followed the UAE’s lead in normalizing relations with Israel.

McMaster called attention to an op-ed penned by Otaiba prior to the Accords in which he argued that annexation would critically inhibit the ability of countries like the UAE to negotiate with Israel. Both agreed that the signal sent by the publication of this opinion piece–which was also published in Hebrew–served as an effective opening salvo of signaling that ultimately facilitated the negotiations that generated the Accords.

Iran, the Gulf, and Extremism

McMaster pointed to the name of the Accords themselves as an attempt to transcend the religious and sectarian divisions that have plagued the region in recent decades. He also pointed to Iran as an actor that has consistently complicated these aims. In particular, he identified Iran’s support of proxy actors in conflict, attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, and the promotion of ideological justifications for sectarianism and theocracy as ways in which Iran has complicated the dynamics of peace processes in the region.

Otaiba also identified Iran’s support for violent extremists as a significant complicating factor in peace processes. Notably, he argued that it was not only the rise of Shia extremism at issue, but also the way in which Iran’s rhetoric has motivated Sunni extremism as well. Otaiba pointed to the UAE’s work to combat extremism as an important step in this regard. For example, the UAE invited the Pope to visit the country and developed a complex that included a synagogue, mosque, and church. By doing so, the country aims to challenge the perception among some that extremists are the true guardians of community and society.

The Future of the Region

Otaiba argued that the way in which Iranian rhetoric has reinforced Sunni extremism is indicative that the future of the region will not be defined by a Sunni-Shia fault line, but rather a debate over the role of religion in governance. This fault line will be divided, according to Otaiba, between those who believe in a separation between church and state–as he does–and those who believe that religion ought to be incorporated into governance.

McMaster and Otaiba also believed that the Biden administration will differentiate itself from the conciliatory approach to Iran that characterized the Obama administration. This difference in outlook is largely attributed to the Trump administration’s policy of maximum pressure, which has given this new administration a stronger hand with which to leverage more concessions out of Iran. While both were fairly optimistic that the Biden administration will maintain a strong line against Iran, Otaiba expressed some concern about the prospects of the administration’s push for peace and withdrawal in Afghanistan. The UAE has taken some steps away from this theater in recent years, diminishing its ability to leverage its role as a broker to achieve peace. While Otaiba expressed that the UAE was willing to accept the outcome of any agreement between the US, the Taliban, and the government, he also expressed disbelief that all three parties could come to a durable agreement.

To watch the event in full, please click here