Month: April 2021
Stevenson’s army, April 19
– Unnamed officials are defending the administration’s process on Afghanistan, noting 4 NSC meetings, 3 principals’ meetings, and 10 deputies meetings.
– FT explains the political maneuverings in Jordan.
– NYT notes the arms race between North and South Korea.
– DOD says it may need surge to help withdrawal from Afghanistan. Note that this same argument angered Obama in 2009, though he acquiesced.
-US may build facilities in Norway.
-Local profs argue against selling arms to Philippines.
– Texas has prize for student papers on intelligence.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | April 19 – April 23, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum | April 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM CEST | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Iryna Solonenko: Senior Fellow, LibMod, Berlin
Maxim Samorukov: Policy Fellow, Carnegie Center, Moscow
Gustav Gressel: Senior Policy Fellow, Wider Europe programme, ECFR
Joanna Hosa (moderator): Deputy Director, Wider Europe programme, ECFR
Since the end of March, Russia has been building up military forces alongside its border with Ukraine. Disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv (and the West) about the end-state and a way to implement the Minsk-agreement have existed since the very signing of the treaty. Yet, tensions between the two sides have grown over the past three months. What are the perceptions of the situation in Moscow, Kyiv and in the EU? What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond? And finally, how to solve the Minsk-conundrum: an agreement that is both un-implementable (because of its vagueness) but also indispensable (because the post-hot war status quo rests on it)?
2. Defense Project Series: A Talk with HR McMaster on Global Security | April 19, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lieutenant General (ret.) H. R. McMaster: Former National Security Advisor
Major General (ret.) Bill Rapp (moderator): Lecturer in Military Affairs, Harvard University
Please join MG(Ret) Bill Rapp in a lively talk with HR McMaster, former National Security Advisor and retired Lieutenant General, as McMaster discusses global security challenges for the United States and its allies in the coming decade. McMaster calls for cleared eyed recognition of major threats facing the U.S. and to avoid the hubris that has marked much of the last thirty years of foreign policy.
3. Online influence in Georgia: A geopolitical crossroads | April 19, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Peter Wiebler: Mission Director, Georgia, USAID
Diana Chachua: Program and Communications Manager, Georgia, National Democratic Institute
David Stulik: Head of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy
Eto Buziashvili: Research Associate, Caucases, Digital Forensic Research Lab
Givi Gigitashvili: Research Assistant, Caucases, Digital Forensic Research Lab
Ia Meurmishvili (moderator): Senior Editor, TV Anchor, Journalist, Voice of America
The pre-election period in Georgia was characterized by a high degree of societal polarization, which was largely reflected in the country’s information environment. Domestic political actors undertook multiple inauthentic activities on Facebook to advance their political goals and mislead people. Beyond the domestic operations, the strategic public release of stolen documents ahead of elections by external actors was a new phenomenon for Georgia, as was the release generated widespread controversy and confusion. Georgian elections were also the target of Kremlin-led disruptions online whose primary objective was to instill a sense of vulnerability and demoralize Georgian voters.
Foreign interference and influence efforts remain a driving issue in the country of Georgia. In the DFRLab’s latest report, Fighting for the Hearts and Minds of Sakartvelo: The Georgian information environment during the 2020 parliamentary election, our regional experts provided primary source and technical analysis of how various actors – foreign and domestic – attempted to manipulate public opinion and influence recent election results, especially online. This conversation will begin with an overview of Georgians’ the national information environment, and panelists will explore the perceptions about, evidence of, and interplay between foreign and domestic attempts at influence operations in the recent 2020 elections.
4. Sustainable US presence in the Middle East: Balancing short and long-term needs | April 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Daniel L. Magruder Jr. (moderator): Federal Executive Fellow, Brookings Institution
Emma Ashford: Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Michael E. O’Hanlon: Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Robert Pape: Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago
Becca Wasser: Fellow, Center for a New American Security
The president’s Interim National Security Guidance states that in the Middle East, “we will right-size our military presence to the level required to disrupt international terrorist networks, deter Iranian aggression, and protect other vital U.S. interests.” Against this backdrop are many questions concerning how the U.S. can balance its military commitments in the Middle East while also prioritizing longer-term progress. Is the current force posture necessary to support a more limited view of U.S. interests in the region, and are these commitments sustainable? Do current commitments in the region create unnecessary risks and constrain strategic choices to prepare for the future? What are the long-term trade-offs of more, or less, U.S. presence in the Middle East? On April 19, Foreign Policy at Brookings will convene a panel of practitioners, academics, and policy experts to address these key questions and discuss what a sustainable military presence in the Middle East looks like.
5. A New U.S. Approach to Israel-Palestine | April 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Salih Booker: President and CEO, the Center for International Policy
Khaled Elgindy: Senior Fellow, the Middle East Institute
Lara Friedman: President, the Foundation for Middle East Peace
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Zaha Hassan: Visiting Fellow, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Daniel Levy: President of the U.S. / Middle East Project
Ishaan Tharoor (moderator): Columnist, Washington Post
After three decades of an Israel-Palestine peace process that has entrenched occupation and seen settler numbers in the West Bank quadruple, it is time for a U.S. policy reset on conflict resolution. How can this U.S. administration help shift political calculations of Palestinians and Israelis, alter the negative trajectory of realities on the ground, and rebuild prospects for a durable peace? Please join co-authors Marwan Muasher, Zaha Hassan, and Daniel Levy for the launch of a paper calling for a new U.S. approach to the conflict that prioritizes the rights and human security of Palestinians and Israelis.
6. Civil Resistance Transitions: Dialogue, Trust and Democracy | April 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Zied Boussen: Tunisian Activist and Researcher
Veronique Dudouet: Senior Research Advisor, Berghof Foundation
Zahra Hayder: Sudanese Activist and Organizer
Roman-Gabriel Olar: Assistant Professor, Trinity College Dublin
Jonathan Pinckney: Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Lise Grande (moderator): President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Political transitions initiated through nonviolent action are more than three times as likely to end in peace and democracy than any other form of transition. Yet prominent cases such as the “Arab Spring” revolutions in Egypt and Syria — in which nonviolent action resulted in returns to authoritarianism or devastating civil war — show that this relationship is far from easy or direct. And even when some form of democracy is achieved, many young democracies struggle to gain the trust necessary for long-term peace and stability. How can movements navigate this uncertain road from a breakthrough against authoritarianism to long-term sustainable democracy? To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP and the Berghof Foundation for the third in a series of four events on people power, peace and democracy. The event series will highlight multiple groundbreaking research projects and feature insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.
7. Business As Usual or Time for Change? Revisiting U.S. Strategy in the Middle East | April 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Dalia Dassa Kaye: Fellow, RAND Corporation
Ilan Goldenberg: Director, Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Michele Dunn: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
James F. Jeffrey (moderator): Chair of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center
This roundtable will feature experts representing a variety of think tanks who have recently issued reports on U.S. Middle East strategy. With the start of a new Administration, this is an opportune moment for Washington to rethink some of the fundamental premises underlying American policymaking in the Middle East and to review how America engages the region. The experts will compare ideas and approaches, exploring whether new policy directions are possible for a region still mired in conflict.
8. Afghanistan’s Next Chapter: What Happens as U.S. Troops Leave? | April 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Haseeb Humayoon: Partner, Qara Consulting, LLC
Laurel Miller: Program Director, Asia, International Crisis Group
Dipali Mukhopadhyay: Senior Expert on Afghanistan Peace Processes, U.S Institute of Peace
Nader Nadery: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Chairman of the Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission
Muqaddesa Yourish: Country Director, Lapis Communications
Scott Worden (moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
President Biden has announced that the United States will withdraw all remaining military forces from Afghanistan before September 11, 2021 — likely marking a definitive end to America’s longest war just months before its two-decade anniversary. The decision fundamentally changes the dynamics of the Afghan peace process, as the Taliban have defined their insurgency by opposition to perceived occupation by foreign troops. With those troops leaving, will the Taliban negotiate with fellow Afghans or seek an outright military victory? And will U.S. troop withdrawal push Afghans to unify around preserving the current democratic constitution, or to seek deals that give the Taliban more power in a political settlement to the conflict? Join USIP for a discussion with leading experts on the immediate implications of these developments, as well as a look at what the future of the Afghan conflict and peace process might look like as U.S. troops begin a final withdrawal from the country.
9. COVID-19 and Political Systems – Insights and Lessons One Year In | April 22, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:15 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Sandra Breka: Member, the Board of Management at the Robert Bosch Stiftung
Thomas Caruthers: Interim President, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Chan Heng Chee: Ambassador-at-Large, the Singapore Foreign Ministry
Ivan Krastev: Permanent Fellow, the Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna
Ngaire Woods: Founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and professor of Global Economic Governance, Oxford University
COVID-19 has put pressure on political systems everywhere to deliver effective governance on an emergency basis. Within months of the pandemic’s arrival, it became clear the key determinant for meeting this challenge was not whether a political system was authoritarian or democratic, but whether a system had an adequate degree of state capacity, preparedness, and public trust.
Now a year into the pandemic, new political challenges have emerged. For democracies, what lessons and reforms will they address following the crisis? For authoritarians, will their many power-grabs from the start of the pandemic become permanent? Also in question is whether populist political forces will benefit or suffer from their leadership, given rising public discontent spurred by pandemic restrictions and mismanagement and yet the greater appreciation for scientific advancements. Finally, the relatively good performance of Asian nations—democratic and authoritarian—relative to Western nations and supranational bodies, suggests a shifting landscape of global power.
10. The Arctic as Emerging Geopolitical Flashpoint | April 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Robert Huebert (moderator): Associate Professor, University of Calgary
Michael Byers: Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law, University of British Columbia
Rear Admiral Martin La Cour-Andersen: Defense Attaché to the United States and Canada, Embassy of Denmark in the United States, Danish Department of Defense
Rebecca Pincus: Assistant Professor at the United States Naval War College
Jonathon Quinn: Director General of Continental Defence, Department of National Defence, Government of Canada
The Arctic feels the impact of climate change more intensely than the rest of the globe. Regardless of national and international efforts to mitigate the emissions that drive climate change, much of the ongoing change in the Arctic is already established and will continue to accelerate. These changes will dramatically affect not only the Arctic’s environment, but also its security, defense, and ability to be exploited for its resources and used for transportation. This year’s annual conference will delve into these emerging issues in the Arctic from the perspective of trans-border impact, initiatives and need for cooperation. Our expert panelists and distinguished lecturers will cover issues ranging from the concrete change taking place, to emerging national security issues, to economic growth and regulation, to the impact on and role of indigenous peoples. Our guests and presenters from government, academia, and industry will review these topics from their national and sector viewpoints and engage the audience in much-needed dialogue on the issues.
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Stevenson’s army, April 18
As I’ve said in class, most leaks — other than authorized trial balloons — come from those who are losing the interagency debate. Now that President Biden has decided to wityjdraw from Afghanistan regardless of conditions, the other side is telling it story. To WSJ, which says Biden rejected military advice. To NYT, which details meetings where they made the case for staying. To WaPo, which warns about finding ways of fighting terrorists.
David Ignatius has the saga of Kash Patel, the unconfirmed boss of CIA & DOD.
Embassy staff withdrawn from Chad.
IISS analyst reviews Solar Winds.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 17
-Why didn’t US win the Afghan war? NYT’s Max Fisher says we pursued a fundamentally conflicted policy – strong central government and no reconciliation with Taliban. Fred Kaplan says it was unwinnable from the start.
– What about the contractors? Reuters says some will leave.
– Where’s the swagger now? State IG says Pompeo broke the rules.
– Who screwed up on refugee limits? NYT reports Administration disarray and political pushback. Politico finds critics of HHS head.
– Why did Biden win? Academic study says losing down-ballot candidates boosted turnout in red states.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 16
Longtime WaPo reporter Walter Pincus tells how technology is driving intelligence.
FDD has new site following Biden foreign policy.
NYT explains thinking behind Russia sanctions. Russia retaliates.
NYT notes new Russia sanctions will affect Russian banks.
Lawfare parses sanctions in terms of cyber policy. Politico says US won’t send ships into Black Sea. Administration approves new arms sale to UAE.
NYT says US military is looking at neighboring sites after Afghan withdrawal. Trust in US military drops slightly, Bloomberg reports.
Biden keeps Trump’s low refugee cap.
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A Bronx cheer for a dumb idea
COVID-19 isn’t the only epidemic in the Balkans. There is an even more deadly one: proposals to move borders. There is no vaccine to prevent their spread. Below is a good pictorial summary, courtesy of Rada Trajkovic, who tweets:
Balkans corrupt, criminalised, illiberal leaders have been so emboldened by their unfettered domestic power grabs that they now believe they can play a (bloody) game with our borders. Perfect distraction from their poor domestic records & a way to destabilise the EU for decades.
Greater Albania, Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia: the wet dream of Franjo Tudjman, Slobodan Milosevic, Hasan Pristina. Everyone wins!
But of course there are losers, both on this map and beyond. The Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims to the American press, no matter how unreligious) get an indefensible, rump state surrounded by sworn enemies and ripe for radicalization. The Kosovo Albanians lose their state and become the northeastern province of Albania. The major Serb Orthodox sites south of the Ibar River in Kosovo would no longer be sustainable. Macedonia loses perhaps 40% of its territory. Several hundred thousand people (maybe half a million or more?) on the “wrong” side of ethnically defined new borders would have to relocate or run the risks associated with minorities in ethnically defined states.
Beyond this map the repurcussions would also be dramatic: once the principle of not changing borders to accommodate ethnic differences is breached, the Russian position on South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova, and Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine would be vastly strengthened. Russian challenges to the terriorial integrity of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would not be far behind.
All of this is well understood in the United States and Europe. Few in Washington, London, or Brussels are interested in opening Pandora’s Box. But the West is distracted. The US is confronting a long list of foreign policy challenges. The EU is preoccupied with COVID-19, economic recession, and the aftermath of Brexit. Ditto the UK. Chancellor Merkel, the EU’s trump card when it comes to pursuing liberal democracy in the Balkans and many other matters, is getting ready to retire without a worthy heir apparent.
The current preference in the West is not to move borders but to make them less cumbersome. This proposition goes under the heading of “mini-Schengen,” an effort on the regional level to mirror the EU’s borderless Schengen area. Removing visas, tariffs and non-tariff barriers while shortening the waiting time for trucks at the all too frequent border stations in the Balkans could improve efficiency and hasten the day that the Balkans can join the “maxi” Schengen area.
That is a much easier and more promising prospect than moving half a million people, many of them against their will. Violence is the only force that could achieve what the map above projects. American and European troops would either need to suppress murder and mayhem in Kosovo, Bosnia, and North Macedonia or evacuate, something that would no doubt be celebrated in Moscow. Nor would violence stop there: the Serbs of Montenegro would seek union with Serbia while the Bosniaks of Serbia’s Sandjak seek union with rump Bosnia, pushing aside people of other ethnicities in the effort. Perhaps the Russians could use renewed Balkan violence as a pretext for deploying their own troops, as they did recently to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In short: the map above is a proposal for death and destruction, instability, NATO and European embarrassment, and still another Russian win, in addition to ensuring the ethnic nationalist political stranglehold in the Balkans for another generation. Those who propose such an outrage merit oppropbrium from real democracies. I hope the US and EU can spare a few moments from their many other priorities to give this distraction the diplomatic equivalent of the Bronx cheer it deserves:
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