Month: April 2021
Stevenson’s army, April 12
– NYT says Israel conducted Natanz attack — just before SecDef Austin arrived for talks.
– Biden is consulting McConnell about Myanmar.
-Politico explains Biden media strategy.
– FYI, there are lots of minisatellites in space.
– India complains about US FONOP.
– RAND researcher says US intelligence ignores unclassified sources.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Peace Picks | April 12 – April 16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- The Future of US Security in Space | April 12, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Activity in space is rapidly expanding with an explosion of actors and commerce in recent years. More than seventy nations operate national space programs, making international space governance prime for a reboot. Private-sector investment in unique space technologies and more affordable space launch creates the exciting prospect of a space commerce boom. Meanwhile, the increasing salience of space in great-power competition and counterspace capabilities threaten freedom of access. Space exploration will likely evolve at pace over the next decades, offering potential resource abundance and the ability to expand the frontiers of space development. The United States and its allies require a strategy to meet the moment and shape the strategic landscape through 2050 and beyond.
Speakers:
Frederick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council
Gen. James E. Cartwright: Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Hon. Deborah Lee James: Former Secretary of the Air Force
Hon. Charles F. Bolden Jr.: 12th NASA Administrator and Astronaut
Dr. Scott Pace: Former Executive Secretary, US National Space Council
Jennifer Griffin (moderator): National Security Correspondent, Fox News
Col. Andrew R. Morgan: Astronaut, NASA
Lt. Col. Christopher Mulder: Senior US Air Force Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
Debra Facktor: Head of US Space Systems, Airbus US Space & Defense, Inc.
Ellen Chang: Head of Naval Portfolio, H4X Labs
Gregg Maryniak: Co-Founder and Director, XPRIZE Foundation
Dr. Matthew Daniels: Senior Fellow, Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Dr. Jana Robinson: Managing Director and Space Security Program Director, Prague Security Studies Institute
Jacqueline Feldscher (moderator): National Security and Space Reporter, POLITICO
2. Oscar-Nominated “Hunger Ward” Documentary: Inside Yemen’s Humanitarian Crisis | April 12, 2021 | 7:00 PM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
The conflict in Yemen has precipitated the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations, two-thirds of Yemenis need humanitarian assistance to survive. Meanwhile, more than 16 million people will face hunger this year, with nearly 50,000 Yemenis in famine-like conditions. Almost half of Yemen’s children under age five will suffer from acute malnutrition, including 400,000 who could die without urgent treatment.
Filmed from inside two of the most active therapeutic feeding centers in Yemen, “Hunger Ward” documents two female health care workers fighting to thwart the spread of starvation against the backdrop of Yemen’s raging conflict. The film provides an unflinching portrait of Dr. Aida Alsadeeq and Nurse Mekkia Mahdi as they try to save the lives of hunger-stricken children within a population on the brink of famine.
Join USIP as we host a screening of the Oscar-nominated documentary “Hunger Ward,” followed by a discussion of the film and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen with acclaimed journalist and PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff, Academy Award-nominated filmmaker Skye Fitzgerald, and former U.N. Resident Coordinator for Yemen and current USIP President and CEO Lise Grande.
This program is presented in partnership with MTV Documentary Films.
Speakers:
Lise Grande
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Judy Woodruff
Anchor and Managing Editor, PBS NewsHour
Skye Fitzgerald
Director and Academy Award Nominee, “Hunger Ward”
3. The Nexus of Climate Change, Fragility, and Peacebuilding | April 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
Join the Wilson Center and USIP for a timely discussion with experts on the linkages between climate and fragility, and how a more integrated approach to climate and fragility policies and responses can simultaneously strengthen resilience outcomes and minimize threats to peace and prosperity.
The Biden administration is taking action to center climate change in its foreign policy and national security agendas, preparing to dramatically curb U.S. emissions, and has recognized climate change’s connection to injustice. Yet, one thing has been missing from the administration’s climate agenda: The linkages between climate change action and opportunities to build peace. While climate impacts can drive conflict and insecurity, well-designed climate action can foster collaboration and promote peace, and strategic investments in peacebuilding can yield climate resilience.
The Global Fragility Act (GFA) and recently released “U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stabilization” could provide an important avenue to elevate and leverage the Biden administration’s bold climate agenda to address instability and build peace. Bridging the policy gap between climate action and peacebuilding is a crucial first step to a more climate resilient and peaceful future. In fact, research shows sustainable peace requires a climate-sensitive lens, and sustainable climate responses require a conflict-sensitive lens.
Join the Wilson Center and USIP for a timely discussion with experts on the linkages between climate and fragility, and how a more integrated approach to climate and fragility policies and responses can simultaneously strengthen resilience outcomes and minimize threats to peace and prosperity.
Speakers:
Joseph Hewitt: Vice President, Policy, Learning, and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Cynthia Brady (moderator): Global Fellow; Former Peacebuilding and Resilience Advisor, USAID
Dina Esposito: Vice President of Technical Leadership, Mercy Corps
Alice Hill: David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, Council on Foreign Relations; former Senior Director, Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Liz Hume: Acting President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Erin Sikorsky: Deputy Director, The Center for Climate and Security; former Deputy Director, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council
4. Navigating Humanitarian Access During Covid-19: Towards Localization | April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
The Covid-19 pandemic created unprecedented challenges in the delivery of humanitarian assistance worldwide. Global lockdowns and travel restrictions hindered humanitarian access for international aid organizations attempting to reach vulnerable populations and impeded the mobility of civilians displaced by armed conflict. As a result of these additional access constraints, national and local humanitarian actors were tasked with increased leadership and responsibility to deliver life-saving assistance.
Speakers:
Dr. Rebecca Brubaker: Senior Policy Adviser and Project Director at the United Nations University Centre for Policy
Research (UNU-CPR),
Eranda Wijewickrama: Leader at the Humanitarian Advisory Group,
Smruti Patel: Founder and Co-Director of the Global Mentoring Initiative.
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Kimberly Flowers: Senior Associate (Non-resident), Humanitarian Agenda and Global Food Security Progra
5. UAE: US Policy In The Middle East And Prospects For Peace And Economic Growth In A Troubled Region | April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Hoover Institution | Watch Here
In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Yousef Al Otaiba discuss the Abraham Accords, the humanitarian crisis centered on ongoing crises in Syria and Yemen, the threat from Iran, and great power competition in the Middle East.
Speakers:
Yousef Al Otaiba: United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ambassador to the United States (US)
H. R. McMaster: Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
6. Russia’s Dangerous Military Escalation with Ukraine| April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Moscow is amassing forces on Ukraine’s eastern border and in northern occupied Crimea. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine is working overtime talking about Kyiv’s aggressive actions and spreading disinformation that Ukraine is shelling civilians in the Donbas. Russian President Vladimir Putin is unhappy—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took away the media channels from Putin’s ally Viktor Medvedchuk, and a concerned United States conducted a series of high-level telephone calls to reassure Kyiv and demonstrate strong international support for Ukraine in this crisis. Why is this all happening now? What makes these military actions different from the leadup to Moscow’s invasion in 2014? Will Putin actually strike, and what should the West do now?
Speakers:
Oleksiy Honcharuk: Former Prime Minister of Ukraine; Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Evelyn Farkas: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia
Ambassador Daniel Fried: Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Melinda Haring (moderator): Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center, to assess Russia’s recent military buildup near the Ukrainian border
7. Measuring Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe: Do Scores Matter? | April 15, 2021 | 8:30AM ET | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Global democracy has been in decline for fifteen years, with Central and Eastern European countries leading the trend of autocratization in the Western world. However, while main democracy monitoring projects offer a uniform view on the decline of democracy and rising trends of authoritarianism in the region, including in EU and NATO member states, their warnings remain a cry in the wilderness. With domestic threats to democracy remaining largely disregarded, the debate revolving around the rule of law in the EU disguises the true nature of authoritarian trends, helping to maintain the legitimacy of non-democratic or barely democratic governments.
Why are the results of different efforts to measure democracy falling on deaf ears and remaining largely disregarded at the political level? When and why did measuring democracy largely lose its political and policy relevance, and how could this be re-established? And what are the major democratic and authoritarian trends and lessons learned in Central and Eastern Europe that European politicians and stakeholders should not ignore?
The German Marshall Fund of the United States is pleased to invite you to an online event and discussion that examines these and other questions related to the challenges and results of measuring democracy in Central and Eastern Europe.
Speakers:
Zselyke Csáky: Research Director, Europe & Eurasia, Freedom House
Sabine Donner: Senior Expert, Bertelsmann Transformation Index
Juraj Medzihorsky: Research Associate, V-Dem
Daniel Hegedüs (moderator): Fellow for Central Europe, German Marshall Fund of the United States
8. Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare | April 15, 2021 | 12:15 PM ET | Harvard Belfar Center | Register Here
In Bullets Not Ballots, Jacqueline L. Hazelton challenges the claim that winning “hearts and minds” is critical to successful counterinsurgency campaigns. Good governance, this conventional wisdom holds, gains the besieged government popular support, denies support to the insurgency, and enables military and political victory. Hazelton argues that major counterinsurgent successes since World War II have resulted not through democratic reforms but rather through the use of military force against civilians and the co-optation of rival elites.
Hazelton offers new analyses of five historical cases frequently held up as examples of the effectiveness of good governance in ending rebellions—the Malayan Emergency, the Greek Civil War, the Huk Rebellion in the Philippines, the Dhofar rebellion in Oman, and the Salvadoran Civil War—to show that, although unpalatable, it was really brutal repression and bribery that brought each conflict to an end. By showing how compellence works in intrastate conflicts, Bullets Not Ballots makes clear that whether or not the international community decides these human, moral, and material costs are acceptable, responsible policymaking requires recognizing the actual components of counterinsurgent success—and the limited influence that external powers have over the tactics of counterinsurgent elites.
Speakers:
Jacqueline L. Hazelton: Associate, International Security Program
9. Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space | April 15, 2021 | 8:30AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Analysts from CSIS and the Secure World Foundation will discuss way to protect space systems from counterspace weapons, including active and passive defenses, strategy and policy measures, and diplomatic initiatives.
Speakers:
Victoria Samson: Washington Office Director, Secure World Foundation
David Edmondson: Policy Head, Space Security and Advanced Threats
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan: Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation
Frank Rose: Co-Director of the Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Todd Harrison: Director of Defence Budget Analysis and Director of the Aerospace Security Project
10. Great Power Challenges to the Transatlantic Alliance: Reinventing Leadership for a Stable Future | April 16, 2021 | 10:00AM ET | Carnegie Endowment | Watch Here
After a tenuous four years for the transatlantic alliance, the Biden administration has ushered in new hope for its future and made clear intentions to strengthen ties with European allies. But the challenges today are not centered around blunting frontal assaults by tanks; they turn on meeting competitive and containing malign activities by Russia and China in outlying regions (Black Sea), out of area (Iran) and new technological planes, while carving out opportunities to cooperate on vital security and trade issues. How best to renew the transatlantic alliance amid these dynamic trends in the security and technological landscape?
Join us for a conversation featuring Vicki Birchfield, Erik Brattberg, Philip Breedlove, and Suzanne DiMaggio in conversation with Suzanne Kelly, with special remarks by Sam Nunn on the path forward for the transatlantic alliance.
Speakers:
Suzanne Kelly: CEO & publisher of the Cipher Brief; Former CNN’s intelligence correspondent before spending two years in the private sector.
Vicki L. Birchfield: Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, co-director of the Center for European and Transatlantic Studies, and director of the study abroad program on the European Union and Transatlantic Relations.
Erik Brattberg: Director of the Europe Program and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washingto
Stevenson’s army, April 11
– Suspicious blackout at Natanz site.
– More gloomy assessments of power struggles in Afghanistan –from NYT and from WaPO.
– FP has long profile of Jake Sullivan.
– WaPo has long story about Chinese use of US technology in its weapons.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, April 10
– In week 12 of the Conduct [of Foreign Policy] course, we’ll have an exercise where you try to coordinate administration responses to breaking news items. Some officials may push for a political spin. That happens in government, as WaPo discovered from emails between officials at HHS bragging about getting changes in CDC announcements more favorable to Trump positions.
– OMB has the new skinny budget. It shows a small increase for defense, and a 12% increase for international affairs spending. A perennial fight over policies and budgets comes between service chiefs and combatant commanders, as Real Clear Politics reports.
– NYT considers Moscow’s motivations in military moves toward Ukraine.
– Profesor and former APSA Fellow Brian Alexander hosted an interesting program on changing norms in Congress. Take a look.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, April 9
CNN says US Navy may send ships to Black Sea to support Ukraine.
Every 4 years, intelligence community issues Global Trends report. Latest isn’t very reassuring. Text here.
Tax increases may win because of confusion, Politico says.
Politico also says most members of Congress are pretty mediocre.
But who can figure out the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling?
Biden budget outline due today. Defense may get small boost.
Debate over cyber czar role.
Brilliant analysis by Ezra Klein. He sees collapse of GOP as negotiating partner, generational split among Biden staff, loss of trust in economists, and Biden’s traditional political instincts [which I saw and admired when I worked for him.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, April 8
– FP says Philippines now willing to accept US troops.
– NYT says ISIS is linking to African militants.
– Israel may have attacked Iranian ship.
– NYT reports US divisions over Taiwan policy.
– Opponents of rare earths mine win in Greenland.
– FT has leaked audio of pressure on Jordan’s former Crown Prince
– Democratic majority in House down to 2. Death or even absence because of illness in Senate or House could thwart legislative plans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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