Month: May 2021
Stevenson’s army, May 31
[In memory of my ancestor, Captain Levi Ely of the Massachusetts militia, killed at the battle of Stone Arabia, October 19, 1780.]
– LTG [Ret.] Mike Flynn calls for a coup.
– Politico says the Danes helped NSA spy on Merkel.
– North Korea criticizes US decision on South Korea.
– Susan Glasser of the New Yorker wonders about threats to American democracy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | May 31 – June 4, 2021
Peace Picks | May 31- June 4, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Addressing the Lebanese Social and Humanitarian Crises | June 1, 2021 | 9:45 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon’s social and humanitarian crises have sharply accelerated over the past two years. From the onset of Covid-19 to the Beirut port explosion and the unfolding financial and socio-economic collapse, Lebanese citizens as well as Syrian and Palestinian refugee communities are witnessing a rapid slide into poverty and despair. Recent developments threaten to fuel civil unrest, xenophobia, and extremism. In the meantime, international partners including donor countries, multilateral institutions, and non-governmental organizations have rallied to help Lebanon avert a total and irreversible humanitarian disaster with wide-ranging repercussions.
How have international partners and the Lebanese diaspora circumvented the absence of a strong and capable central government to deliver much-needed support to citizens and refugees alike? What are some of the different potential scenarios for Lebanon on the social and humanitarian fronts in the months ahead? What must be done in the short and long term to prevent the country from spiraling further downward?
Speakers:
Congressman Darin LaHood (Opening Remarks)
U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’s 18th District
Paul Salem (Opening Remarks)
President, Middle East Institute
Alex Mahoney
Acting Office Director for the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, USAID
Nadine Massoud-Bernheim
Chief Executive Officer, LIFE
Haneen Sayed
Lead Social Protection and Jobs Specialist, MENA Region, World Bank
Mona Yacoubain (Moderator)
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
- Equality for Some: Challenges to Women’s Rights in Egypt | June 1, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Despite hard-won gains in rights and freedoms carved out over the past century, Egyptian women are seeing challenges to their rights and duties as citizens. During a period of rapidly evolving social and environmental dynamics, women are struggling to have their own development keep up with the shifting landscape in both personal and professional life.
There also appears to be an odd dichotomy; despite official attempts to promote gender equality, with more women in cabinet and on boards than ever before, long-held patriarchal attitudes mean some positions are still firmly off-limits to women. Women are also facing myriad challenges to their personal lives, with the much-debated draft Personal Status Law threatening to set women’s rights back decades. What are the socioeconomic consequences of these issues?
Speakers:
Hoda El-Sadda
Professor of English and Comparative Literature, Cairo University
Mozn Hassan
Founder and Executive Director, Nazra for Feminist Studies
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator)
Senior Fellow and Director, Egypt Program, MEI
Additional Speaker TBA
- Small Satellite Proliferation, Advanced Technologies, and Their Security Implications | June 1, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Foreign Policy Research Institute | Register Here
The uncontrolled re-entry of China’s rocket, which launched the core module of China’s space station, has raised concern about the absence of norms governing space. To provide an important perspective, FPRI has assembled a panel of experts to discuss the risks and opportunities of dual-use technologies. How do we ensure a space environment that is safe and sustainable as the number and capabilities of objects in space increase? Can new technologies help mitigate the risks of international conflict over space?
Speakers:
Mariel Borowitz
Associate Professor, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology
Everett Carl Dolman
Professor of Comparative Military Studies, U.S. Air Force Air Command and Staff College
Glenn Lightsey
Professor at the Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Lawrence Rubin
Associate Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology and a Templeton Fellow in the National Security Program at FPRI
- Winning the Peace: Armed Groups & Security Sector Challenges | June, 3, 2021 | 8:00 AM EST | Register Here
Armed non-state actors have exploited state fragility with devastating impact and have experienced a remarkable ascension in recent years, powerfully competing with conventional military forces, sometimes delivering governance to local populations, courting state sponsors and working with them across borders. In the wider Middle East, their rise and impact has been pronounced. Developing effective internal and external policy responses to such hybrid security environments, rife with contestations over power, resources, and geopolitical dynamics has been a challenge. Policymakers have grappled with integrating some of the armed groups into formal governing structures, while countering others and with devising policy responses to their rule.
To explore these issues, Crisis Response Council and the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors are delighted to welcome you to a panel discussion that examines the future of armed groups in the Middle East and policy options for responding to them. It looks at whether armed groups should be integrated into formal governing structures, whether armed movements can govern, and which armed groups should be accepted, and which should be sidelined; it examines how the international community, particularly the U.S. and Europe, should address security crises and looks at potential policies for conflict mitigation and resolution at the local and regional level.
Speakers:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Brookings Institution
Frederic Wehrey
Carnegie Endowmen
Benedetta Berti
NATO
Yaniv Voller
University of Kent; Stanford University
Ranj Alaaldin
Brookings Institution
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Coordinating International Support for Lebanon: A Conversation with Dr. Najat Rochdi of UNSCHOL | June 3, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Dr. Najat Rochdi for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Dr. Rochdi is the United Nations deputy special coordinator and resident and humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon. She brings over 20 years of experience in development and humanitarian assistance and international coordination in conflict and post-conflict areas.
How is international aid coordination unfolding in Lebanon? Which mechanisms are already in place? What are they building towards? What challenges and obstacles lie ahead? How will the role and involvement of the United Nations in Lebanon develop in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Dr. Najat Rochdi
Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL)
Joyce Karam (Moderator)
Senior Washington Correspondent, The National
- Setting the Agenda for a Transatlantic Digital Alliance | June 3, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Tech issues – from digital taxation and the platform economy to artificial intelligence and the protection of critical technology – are central to the transatlantic relationship. European Commission President von der Leyen identified technology as one of four pillars of her “US-EU agenda for global change,” and called for a new “Trade and Technology Council” to strengthen transatlantic collaboration. As U.S. President Biden prepares to visit Brussels, experienced policymakers will explore the opportunities, challenges, and objectives of EU-US engagement on technology, and how these issues will affect the transatlantic relationship into the future.
Speakers:
Tom Wheeler
Former Chairman of the FCC
Luis Viegas Cardoso
Senior Expert of Digital, Technology and Innovation, I.D.E.A. Advisory Service, European Commission
Karen Kornbluh
Senior Fellow and Director, GMF Digital
Mark Scott (Moderator)
Chief Technology Correspondent, Politico
- International Order and its Discontents: Russia, Iran, and the Struggles for Recognition | June 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Belfer Center | Register Here
Russia’s relationship with Iran illustrates how normative expectations, power aspirations, and shared experiences of denigration can regulate, transform, and structure relations over time. Despite the areas of tension and the mistrust endemic to the relationship, Russia and Iran have exhibited synergies in their approaches to international order as shared experiences of discontent have further galvanized these countries to coalesce around the contestation of the so-called “Western”-led international order.
This seminar will examine the nature of the Russia-Iran relationship, drawing on research of Moscow and Tehran’s domestic foreign policy debates, archival documents, and elite interviews. It offers a framework that accounts for multiple expressions of power and the norms, ideas, values, and solidaristic bonds inherent in the evolution of the Russia-Iran relationship. The broader implications of this case illustrate how power inequalities, and, by extension, the unequal distribution of legitimacy and authority can form a basis of solidarity between states and invite contestation over the rights, rules, and institutions of international society.
Speakers:
Nicole Grajewski
Research Fellow, International Security Program
- Fast Reactors, the Versatile Test Reactor, and Nuclear Safety and Nonproliferation | June 3, 2021 | 4:30 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
The discussion will focus on the role of advanced nuclear energy systems for the purpose of reducing carbon from fossil fuels and supporting global clean energy growth, and the essential role of the Versatile Test Reactor in supporting innovation in nuclear energy. It will address issues related to safety and security by design, how the VTR can enhance those features in the next generation of nuclear technologies, and how advanced reactor systems can incorporate enhanced safety and safeguard features.
As the United States accelerates its engagement on advanced nuclear research and development, the US Department of Energy and other federal bodies are adapting policies and procedures to assure that these new technologies are safe and secure and are deployed in a way that supports both climate and national security goals. In this moderated discussion, nuclear energy policy and technology experts will share their insights on pathways to continued innovation, international security, and the continued value of the nuclear power sector.
Speakers:
Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr.
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Lightbridge Corporation
Ambassador (ret.) Laura Holgate
Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Jackie Kempfer
Director of Government Affairs, OKLO, Inc; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
Kenneth Luongo
President, Partnership for Global Security
Dr. Kemal Pasamehmetoglu
Executive Director for the Versatile Test Reactor, Idaho National Laboratory
Dr. Jennifer Gordon (Moderator)
Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
- NATO 2030: A Keynote Address by Jens Stoltenberg | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institution | Register Here
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and The Brookings Institution, have the pleasure to invite you to a special virtual conversation.
As allied leaders prepare for the NATO Summit in Brussels on June 14, 2021, the transatlantic alliance faces a host of challenges that include Russia’s aggressive actions, the threat of terrorism and cyberattacks, disruptive technologies, the security impact of climate change, and the rise of China. At the same time, the Biden administration offers the opportunity for Europe and North America to work more closely together than they have for many years. The Secretary General will outline his vision in a keynote address followed by a discussion of the NATO 2030 agenda.
Speakers:
John R. Allen
President, The Brookings Institution
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook
Designated Director and CEO, Germain Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Jens Stolenberg
Secretary General, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
- MEI Lebanon Policy Conference – Envisioning Lebanon’s Path to Sustainable and Equitable Growth: A Conversation with Ferid Belhaj | June 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is thrilled to host Ferid Belhaj for a keynote conversation as part of MEI’s inaugural Lebanon policy conference. Mr. Belhaj is the World Bank Group’s Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. From 2012 to 2017, he was World Bank Director for the Middle East, in charge of its work programs in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran, based in Beirut, Lebanon.
How can Lebanon develop and implement a new economic model to promote sustainable and equitable growth? How will the role and involvement of the World Bank in Lebanon evolve in the months ahead?
Speakers:
Ferid Belhaj
Vice President, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank
Ronnie W. Hammad (Moderator)
Adviser, Office of the Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, The World Bank
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Stevenson’s army, May 30
We really need to be careful about distinguishing between cyber thefts and cyber attacks as well as between criminal and governmental cyber attacks. NYT makes clear that ransomware is a criminal enterprise.
Politico says US is monitoring Iranian ships heading toward Venezuela.
Matt Yglesias has good explanation of how the Wuhan lab culpability got caught up in the media’s search for a Vovid narrative and blinded reporters to important questions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Taking score of the GCC at 40: better on economics than politics
On 05/27, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) celebrated this weeks’ 40 year anniversary of the founding of the Gulf Cooperation Council by discussing the organization’s origins, achievements, and future challenges. A Eurocentric approach to the GCC yields few results. The member states’ and region’s different dynamics make an EU benchmark counterproductive. Nonetheless, the panel agreed that this anniversary should be an opportunity to reconsider and renew the GCC’s Charter and mission. The GCC’s achievements are many. As the recent inter-GCC conflict showed, however, it faces serious challenges for the future too.
The speakers were:
Abdullah Baabood
Chair of the State of Qatar for Islamic Area Studies & Visiting Professor
School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University
Matteo Legrenzi
Professor of International Relations
Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Emma Soubrier
Visiting Scholar
Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Kristin Smith Diwan
Senior Resident Scholar
Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The GCC’s origins: no ‘Gulf-EU’
Matteo Legrenzi thinks it is important to acknowledge the different factors that led to the GCC. It is true that worries about Iran were a key reason. However, Gulf cooperation had been on the rise since independence from the UK in the 1970s. Furthermore, the GCC was intended to keep Iraq out, as much as it was intended to unite against Iran. Iraq had been seeking inroads in the Gulf in the context of its Arab nationalist leadership aspirations. Keeping Iraq out of the GCC was a clear signal in the context of the Iran-Iraq War. Diwan remarked that ironically the GCC’s secretary-general’s speech this week emphasized the efforts underway to involve Iraq in the GCC more. Baabood added that the Arab state system’s instability at the time also contributed to the Gulf’s desire for cooperation. Egypt’s peace with Israel and the Arab League’s outrage at the time put regional security on shaky footings.
Emma Soubrier explained that the GCC never became a regional security system, nor was it intended to. It did achieve a strong Gulf identity alongside the prevailing Arab identity of the time. This succeeded both domestically and internationally. Abdullah Baabood commented that the GCC achieved a tariff and trade union. It managed to become greater than the sum of its parts and outperformed expectations in doing so.
Matteo Legrenzi took some time to emphasize the differences between the GCC and the EU model. The domestic organization of GCC states – where a small ruling class wields absolute power – allows quick action to be taken when leaders agree. However, GCC institutions should not be expected to develop supra-national powers. All countries freely admitted to this from the start. Because of this, certain fields see less cooperation than others. Security and defense are less integrated than trade and economics for this reason.
Facing today’s challenges
The Middle East faces a new security order today. Rather than a post-US order, this is a multipolar order in which the US plays a definite part, according to Soubrier. We should therefore not be afraid to be a little US-centric. The conclusion of the al-Ula agreement (which ended the blockade of Qatar) mere weeks before Biden took office is no coincidence, for example. The conflict surrounding Qatar is a major elephant in the room in the GCC.
Baabood acknowledged that it is unprecedented. Its scope went beyond the political to include the societal and public opinion. It hurt the Khaleeji (Gulf) identity that the GCC had so successfully helped establish. Furthermore, it went directly against the GCC common market, without using any GCC mechanisms for resolving disputes. This seriously harmed the trust the GCC is built upon. Much remains to be restored after al-Ula particularly between Qatar and the UAE. Soubrier did emphasize that the GCC leaves much room for bilateral projects and cooperation. This “integration at different speeds” is one of the GCC’s strengths.
The war in Yemen is another conflict in which the GCC might play a part. However, Legrenzi warned that the GCC should not be expected to play a role in political resolutions. Rather, its strength will be in reconstruction of the Yemeni economy, once the political disputes have been resolved. Yemeni accession to the GCC is unlikely because the monarchical model is central to the GCC.
The future
The panel concluded with discussion of the directions the GCC could and should take in the near future. Soubrier emphasized the need for more human-based security. Humanitarian issues in the region are at a peak and the disconnect between Gulf leaders’ vision and public sentiment – e.g. on the recent Gaza war – shows the need for a new focus. Legrenzi and Baabood agreed that the 40th anniversary would be a good occasion to review the GCC Charter. As Legrenzi noted, the charter is a product of the 1970s and 80s. It is full of language relating to Arab nationalism, making it a historical document rather than a modern guideline. There are some mechanisms and aspirations mentioned in the charter which never came to fruition. The GCC countries should take the opportunity to reassess their vision for the organization. This could reinvigorate the project in the process.
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Stevenson’s army, May 29
– WaPo notes that John Warner served when chairmen ruled. Now party leadership has taken control, undermining what I favor as the regular order.
-As the US tries to sort out the role of the Space Force, Jeff Shesol reminds us how Eisenhower and Kennedy fought to keep the US space program civilianized.
– WSJ notes that “hijacking” was originally coined to describe thefts of bootleg liquor.
– Quincy Institute has an interesting report on reforming think tanks.
– Just Security says junior officers are more likely to resist civilian orders.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Republican disrespect for America is a big win for Democrats
Memorial Day Monday commemorates those lost defending America in its too many wars. Yesterday the Republicans in the Senate, using the filibuster, blocked creation of a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6 attack on The Capitol. The irony should be lost on no one: while commemorating those who defend America, elected representatives are preventing investigation of the most successful physical attack on its institutions, and on them, since 1812. Why?
It’s not because they don’t want to know why January 6 happened. It’s because they know perfectly well. Supporters of then-President Trump were attempting to disrupt the constitutionally mandated tabulation in Congress of the Electoral College results. Trump himself encouraged them to do so, claiming fraud during the November election that did not occur and urging his supporters to march on The Capitol. The January 6 rioters, hundreds of whom are now charged in court, included white supremacists and others who wanted to prevent the votes of Black and Brown minorities from deciding the outcome of the election.
Creation of the bipartisan commission would have been an excellent opportunity for the Republican Party to separate itself from the racist miscreants who led the January 6 insurrection. The party leadership–which includes not only Trump himself but notably also Senate Minority Leader McConnell–passed on that opportunity, despite McConnell’s speech after the second impeachment blaming Trump for the assualt. The result is all too apparent: the GOP is now fully committed to racism and white supremacy, not only in Congress but also through the dozens of bills introduced in state legislatures to limit voting by non-whites.
The main question now is whether this racist political program will thrive or not. The six Republican senators who voted in favor of the January 6 commission will soon have to decide whether they can continue to inhabit the GOP or need to break definitively from it. That kind of formal split would doom the Republicans to serious losses in the 2022 election. Even without a formal split, racist strength among GOP loyalists, who are the main participants in primaries, guarantees that it will nominate for the House and Senate more candidates who back Trump than the six defectors. The 2022 election will be a referendum not only on Biden’s performance, which is garnering solid approval so far, but also on Trump Republicanism, which retains something like 30% support.
That’s why the voting rights issue is so important. The electorate that put Biden in office would unquestionably inflict a massive defeat on the racist version of the GOP. But mid-term elections like 2022 do not bring out the same electorate as a presidential contest. Fewer people, and fewer minorities in particular, vote. If Republicans at the state level suppress the vote by making it more difficult for people to register, cast absentee ballots, get to the polls, and cast their votes, Trumpism has a far better chance, even though he will not be on the ballot.
He won’t be in 2024 either, despite his effort to suggest that he might run again. There are indications prosecutors in New York will be charging Trump within the next few months with financial crimes, including tax fraud and election campaign violations as well as other associated felonies. Conviction could take a long time, so he will be wrapped up in court for years to come, if his health holds up. It is hard for me to imagine that Trump will continue to be a fundraising paladin once indicted, but if he is donors will be throwing good money down a rat hole. The notion of a Republican presidential nominee who is under indictment or convicted is beyond my imagination, though of course it is possible.
Speaker Pelosi will now appoint a select commission, including a quotient of non-Trumpist Republican-affiliated big shots. If it manages to report truthfully before the end of the year or early next, the impact could be close to that of a bipartisan commission. By defeating that proposition, Trump has guaranteed he will be blamed for January 6. The Republicans are defeating themselves. Democrats should not be too unhappy.
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