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Ghani looks for partners and opportunities in the future

The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan is soon to be a reality. The last troops will leave before September 11. There is still no political resolution of the country’s decades-old civil war. Fighting is escalting as foreign support declines. Experts have speculated that the Kabul regime led by president Ashraf Ghani may fall to the Taliban as soon as six months after the withdrawal is complete. In this context, the Arab Center Washington DC organized a conference on Looking towards Peace in Afghanistan after the US-NATO Withdrawal. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani gave a keynote speech June 22, before meeting with President Biden on three days later on the new context Afghanistan finds itself in and the opportunities that it affords.

The speakers were:

H.E. Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani (keynote)
President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Sultan Barakat (introduction)
Founding director,
Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, Doha institute for Graduate Studies

A withdrawal foretold

The President focused first on the reality of the current situation. The US withdrawal is a game changer. “By ending the guessing game” surrounding the presence of US forces,” Biden forced all stakeholders to reassess their assumptions in the new context. This decision was no surprise to the Afghan government: “this is a transition for which, mentally, we have been ready.” President Ghani respects Biden’s decision and thanked the troops that helped Afghanistan so generously. Now, Afghanistan needs to be ready to establish new relations with the US and NATO. Far from abandoning Afghanistan, these allies will now become partners in assuring the prosperity and development of the country.

Focusing on opportunities, not risks

Ghani cited Nobel-prize winner Daniel Kahneman, who demonstrated that when strategic situations change people tend to focus on threats, rather than opportunities. For now, however, it is important to focus on opportunities. Afghans have been living with uncertainty for 43 years. They have grown accustomed to see potential despite this. The president explicitly reminded the academics present at the conference that they are speaking of a nation of 30 million. “The specter of Najibullah’s fall haunts us,” he admitted. The more people compare the current situation to that, as well as to the fall of Vietnam, the more they add to the anxiety and fears of the Afghan people. President Ghani does not believe that either of those situations is a good comparison.

“We do not ask the world for a sense of indebtedness, because that is not the reality. But we ask for understanding and we ask for partnership in a meaningful way.” There are two key processes to successfully shape the opportunities now presented:

• All stakeholders must acknowledge the strategic shift. All must frame and reframe their partnerships and resist the urge to pretend that the context hasn’t changed. The Kabul government immediately accepted and acknowledged that the withdrawal changes everything. Ghani called on foreign nations to stop hedging and waiting for events to unfold. Avoid atavistic behavior. Accept the changing context and look towards the new future of Afghanistan without applying historical ideas. “Join us to create a peaceful Afghanistan based on the noble quest for peace, cooperation, and prosperity.”
• Afghanistan needs to focus on new and changing partnerships. Ghani is pleased that, together with all of its core interlocutors (US, NATO) his government has immediately been able to change focus to the new chapter, which will bring peace, prosperity, and connectivity to Afghanistan. The region is crucial in this regard.

To secure the peace of Afghanistan by avoiding foreign competition over influence, “we are seriously considering the permanent neutrality of Afghanistan” so that all can be sure that Afghanistan will not be the theater of competition. “We are not looking for patrons, we are looking for partners.”

Challenging the Taliban to govern

The President turned last to the Taliban and the future of Afghan governance. “My colleagues and I have been very clear we are not interested in power, we are interested in principle and commitment. We are willing to bring elections forward to ensure orderly succession.” The Taliban movement is making a strategic mistake by continuing violence when political pathways are on the table in Doha. Why continue with violence when the context has changed and none of the assumptions of the past continue to be relevant? “A tragedy is in the making. This tragedy is a long and distractive civil war. The Taliban and the Taliban alone will be responsible for the scope of this tragedy.”

Ghani put two core questions to the Taliban:

• Will the Taliban acknowledge the centrality of an Afghan nation of common interest, or will they put their relations with their network and sponsors first, as they did in 2001? They must choose where their loyalties truly lie, and make this clear to the people of Afghanistan.
• What is the Taliban’s practical vision for Afghanistan? They can’t avoid explaining their proposed solutions for governance issues such as COVID, the return of refugees, women’s rights, education, water management, etcetera.

By focusing on governance and development despite continuous fighting, “we have changed the discourse in the world and the region to stop looking at us as just poor Afghanistan, but rather as potentially rich Afghanistan and a partner.”

Ghani concluded by emphasizing his personal commitment to Afghanistan’s prosperity: “Never will I leave this country, never will I abandon my people, and never will I stop urging peace and prosperity for all of us.” “If war is imposed on us, we will surprise the world as has been our habit and our destiny in the past.”

Watch the recording of the speech below: