Month: June 2021
Stevenson’s army, June 14
Happy Flag Day!
– Netanyahu voted out.
-WSJ says US has new approach against Huawei.
– NYT has detailed interactive map on 2020 elections.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Two does not a trend make, but there is hope
Two so-called populist, definitely corrupt, would-be autocrats have fallen: Trump and Netanyahu. What are the prospects for others of their ilk?
- Indian President Narendra Modi has declined markedly in popularity, mainly due to COVID-19. The epidemic is beginning to ebb in India and he doesn’t face an election until 2024, so it is impossible to predict his fate.
- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is in a less comfortable spot. The epidemic has hit Hungary hard and tanked its economy, but he is offering lots of goodies in advance of next year’s parliamentary elections. His party is still strong, but the opposition is more united than in the past.
- Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in worse shape, due to the virus and the economy. If former President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva returns to the hustings, Bolsonaro could be in big trouble come next year’s presidential election.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not in much better condition. Turkey was already in economic trouble before the epidemic, which has hit hard. The opposition, not fully unified, is gaining on him but the presidential election is still far off: June 2023.
- And for the sake of my Balkan readers, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic looks to be in good shape for next year’s presidential election, as the opposition is fragmented and he moved quickly to secure Chinese and Russian vaccines. Nor is there much hope of seeing the back of Bosnia’s Serb President Milorad Dodik, who has lost some traction but likely still has enough grip to hold on in next year’s polls. Both are enjoying lots of Russian financing and protection while Europe and the US twiddle their thumbs, uncertain what to do.
The already autocrats are in better shape:
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has done likewise and has no limit on how long he can serve.
- Russian President Vladimr Putin is holding his own, despite COVID-19. In any event, he is already eliminating any serious opposition to his hold on power in the next presidential election, which isn’t due until 2024.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini is firmly in charge. The presidential election Friday includes no “opposition” or even bona fide moderates. Repression and cooptation have won the day.
- Syrian President Bashar al Assad has survived a decade of both moderate and extremist rebellion. He is now nominally in charge of perhaps 40% of Syria, but his regime is tattered and in desperate need of rebuilding.
- Belarusan President Alexander Lukashenko is weathering massive demonstrations and depends for his survival on Putin, whose efforts to jail or otherwise eliminate any serious opposition Lukashenko imitates.
- Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s coup leader, is trying to do likewise, despite persistent demonstrations.
President Biden has devoted his week in Europe to rallying the G7 to the cause of demonstrating that they can deliver for citizens better than the autocracies. Next week he’ll do the same with the broader audience of NATO allies before confronting Putin. The American economy is reviving rapidly if somewhat sporadically. The G7 has committed itself to a billion vaccine doses for poorer countries, improved public health preparations, and worldwide infrastructure efforts to counter China’s Belt and Road.
I don’t really have much hope that the autocrats will fall, even if Biden demonstrates unequivocally the superiority of liberal democracy. That’s not how the world works. Autocrats are autocrats in order to prevent that outcome. But the fall of a few more populist and corrupt would-be autocrats is certainly not out of the question. The world would be a lot better off if their citizens opted for true democracy. Two does not a trend make, but there is hope.
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Peace Picks | June 14-20, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Carnegie Connects: What Will the New Israeli Change Coalition Actually Change? | June 14, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
If the inauguration of a new Israeli government—the first in over a decade without Benjamin Netanyahu—takes place this Sunday, it raises a series of questions that bear consequentially on the politics of Israel, the conflict with Palestinians, relations with key Arab states, and the Iran nuclear accord. What will the new coalition government, comprised of eight parties across the political spectrum but led by a new, right-wing prime minister, mean for the future of Israel? How will this new government address heightened tension with Palestinians following the most recent Israeli-Palestinian confrontation in Jerusalem and Gaza? And what does the new coalition portend for relations with the Biden administration, U.S. Congress, and the American Jewish community?
Speakers:
Anshel Pfeffer
Senior writer for Haaretz, Israel correspondent for the Economist, author of Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu
Natan Sachs
Director, Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy
Tal Schneider
Political Correspondent, the Times of Israel
Aaron David Miller
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Iran’s 2021 Presidential Elections: The Final End of the Reform Movement? | June 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Register Here
Iran holds presidential elections on 18 June. The entire process is carefully organized. From seven carefully vetted men who were allowed in the race to presidential debates that are entirely devoid of any serious policy discussion, this is an election that has by all accounts failed to excite the Iranian voters. Key policy challenges, including the role of Iran’s foreign policy in resulting in sanctions and dire economic conditions, are largely left unaddressed.
To many observers, this election is also the final nail in the coffin of the reform movement and the idea that gradual political change in the Islamic Republic is possible. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is delighted to host three prominent Iranian observers to discuss this election process and its implications.
Speakers:
Ali Afshari
Iranian Political Analyst and Activist
Nazenin Ansari
Managing Editor, Kayhan London
Negar Mortazavi
Journalist and political analyst
Alex Vatanka
Director, Iran Program, MEI
- Covid-19 in the Middle East: Regional Impact and Future Recovery | June 15, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to hold the second event in a four-part series in cooperation with Arab Barometer, on the occasion of the publication of Arab Barometer’s findings from the sixth wave of its surveys. This most recent poll was conducted in the wake of the outbreak of Covid-19, and assessed regional perspectives on the impact of the pandemic on public health, domestic conditions, vulnerable populations, and the way the region sees the outside world.
The second panel will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Salma Al-Shami, senior research specialist with the Arab Barometer, to discuss the findings as they relate to the impact of Covid-19 and the prospects for long term recovery. How has Covid-19 impacted the region and what vulnerabilities remain? What are the respondent’s perceptions of how their governments addressed the crisis? What does localized and regional recovery look like in conjunction with other ongoing crises?
Speakers:
Yasmina Abuzzuhour
Visiting fellow, Brookings-Doha
Salma Al-Shami
Senior research specialist, Arab Barometer
Shala Al-Kli
Non-resident scholar, MEI; Deputy regional director, Mercy Corps
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
- The Art of War in an Age of Peace | June 15, 2021 | 11:15 AM EST | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As President Joe Biden and his team settle into their new jobs, how should they view the national security challenges facing the United States? And what should U.S. national security policy seek to achieve? Four months into the new administration, it is no longer enough to be the antidote to former President Donald Trump’s unilateralism; a more forward-looking and visionary foreign policy framework is needed. In his new book, “The Art of War in an Age of Peace: U.S. Grand Strategy and Resolute Restraint,” Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon argues that the United States should be resolute in its commitment to defend its core territories, populations, polities, and the economies of its allies, as well as the free and open skies and oceans on which the global economy depends. However, America also needs to show restraint, avoiding costly mistakes that could lead to escalation with great power rivals — such as expanding NATO to include new members — while relying instead on asymmetric defense and deterrence, including economic and military tools to preserve the international order.
Speakers:
Michele Flournoy
Chair, Board of Directors, Center for a New American Security; Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors; Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Director of Research, Foreign Policy; Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, Africa Security Initiative; Senior fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Helene Cooper (moderator)
Pentagon Correspondent, The New York Times
- Viennese Waltz: How Can the U.S. Balance its Priorities with Gulf Arab Concerns as it Engages Iran? | June 16 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
U.S.-Iranian relations seem poised on a knife’s edge, primarily in the indirect negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement.
Where do the talks stand? What are the prospects of an agreement, and what sticking points and pitfalls remain between the parties? If the agreement is revived, how much can be accomplished in 2022, particularly considering the rapidly expiring sunset provisions and Iran’s progress on centrifuges and other critical technology? If the agreement is restored on a compliance-for-compliance basis, is there any serious prospect of additional understandings, particularly that address non-nuclear concerns such as Iran’s missile development program and regional network of violent nonstate actors? Will U.S. regional partners in the Gulf influence the negotiations? Could progress between Washington and Tehran help to promote more robust dialogue between Iran and Gulf Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates?
Speakers:
Thomas L. Friedman
Columnist, New York Times
Suzanne Maloney
Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Ambassador Frank G. Wisner
Chair of the Board, AGSIW
Hussein Ibish (moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar
- Secularism & Islam in France | June 16, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Laïcité or secularism is a key part of the French political fabric but also causing friction and divisions – especially with Muslim communities. A new “Islamist separatism” bill, which would further expand on the separation of church and state, is currently being passed through the French parliament. It would prohibit any civil servant or contractor for the public sector from wearing religious symbols. Although the bill does not explicitly mention Islam as such, many fear that it could unfairly target and further alienate Muslims in France.
Is secularism in its current form still working in France? What can be done to guarantee the separation of church and state, but also protect religious freedoms and religious minorities? How do legitimate security concerns, and the debate about political Islam and freedom of speech heighten tensions?
Speakers:
Amel Boubekeur
Sociologist, EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales)
Steven Philip Kramer
Global Fellow ; Professor of National Security Studies, Eisenhower School, National Defense University
Hakim El Karoui
Senior Fellow, Institut Montaigne; Senior Partner & Paris Office Head, Brunswick
William Drozdiak (moderator)
Global Fellow; Author “The Last President of Europe: Emmanuel Macron’s Race to Revive France and Save the World.”
- Human Rights Violations in Black Sea Occupied Territories | June 16, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Middle East institute | Register Here
Human rights violations in illegally-annexed Crimea and the occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have become a constant element of Russian aggression in the Black Sea region. In both cases, unlawful killings and detentions, enforced disappearances, abductions, and torture are some of the most flagrant human rights violations that Russian and de facto authorities are committing. Additionally, Russian and de facto authorities in occupied territories have also developed targeted policies against the local population, such as borderization in Georgia and militarization and passportization in Ukraine. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, rights in the occupied territories have worsened, and authorities have further restricted freedom of movement, access to education and healthcare, freedom of religion, and workers’ ability to secure a livelihood.
What are the similarities between the human rights violations of Russian and de facto authorities in occupied territories across the Black Sea region? How has the pandemic impacted the human rights situation in the occupied territories of Georgia and Ukraine? What are the next steps in improving the human rights situation in these territories and deterring Russian aggression?
Speakers:
Maria Tomak
Coordinator, Media Initiative for Human Rights, Ukraine
Ann Tsurtsumia-Zurabashvili
Project manager, East-West Management Institute (EWMI), Advancing CSO Capacities and Engaging Society for Sustainability (ACCESS), Georgia
Iulia Joja (moderator)
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan | June 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
On April 14th, President Biden announced a complete U.S. troop withdrawal by September 11, 2021, with a peace conference between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban initially set for April 24th in Istanbul, Turkey. However, the peace conference has been postponed indefinitely due to the Taliban reneging. As of April 2021, civilian casualties in Afghanistan have increased by 29 percent as compared to April 2020, with significant increases in woman and child casualties.
As the U.S. withdrawal develops, the economic, political, and human rights future of Afghanistan remains uncertain. These issues in Afghanistan also play into United States interests in the surrounding region, including in human rights, development, and political and economic stability. One school of thought argues that ending U.S. military presence accelerates a real dialogue amongst the parties in Afghanistan. Another posits that a U.S. withdrawal will result in the collapse of development, human rights, and economic progress, specifically gains in social, political and women’s rights issues made in the last 20 years. A current and future challenge will be in determining what role the United States can and should play in Afghanistan following a military withdrawal and what pathways remain for a resolution of the regional conflict.
Speakers:
Earl Anthony Wayne
Senior Advisor, Project on Prosperity and Development
Annie Pforzheimer
Senior Associate, Project on Prosperity and Development
Richard Olson
Senior Associate, Project on Prosperity and Development
Daniel F. Runde
Senior Vice President; William A. Schreyer Chair and Director, Project on Prosperity and Development
- Digital Occupation: The Implications of Media Moderation in Palestine | June 17, 2021 | 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the international community has further opened its eyes to the dangerous patterns of censorship and discrimination against Palestinians and Palestinian narratives online, particularly on social media platforms, many have called for legislative reform, policy changes at the company level, and more attention to the needs and concerns of Palestinians on the part of stakeholders in the technology industry. While some limited partnerships and reforms have made progress on this issue, there is still an enormous gulf in the area of policy responses to the problem of online discrimination against Palestinians.
What are some of the implications of this phenomenon? How might it impact movements for Palestinian rights, and broader international attention to the Israel-Palestine question? What are some potential policy steps – both for social media and technology companies, governments and states, and other civil society groups and stakeholders – that might start to address this challenge in a more systematic way? This panel will explore the policy responses to this complex issue and hope to draw attention to some concrete policy reforms for the future.
Speakers:
Radhika Sainath
Senior staff attorney, Palestine Legal
Mona Shtaya
Local advocacy manager, 7amleh
Ashraf Zeitoon
Advisor and investor; former director of public policy, Middle East, Turkey & Africa, Netflix; former head of policy, Middle East and North Africa, Facebook
Eliza Campell (moderator)
Associate director, Impact and Innovation, MEI
- President Jimmy Carter and the Middle East: Reexamining his legacy forty years later | June 17, 11:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institute | Register Here
Beginning in 1977, Former president Jimmy Carter’s administration was one of the most consequential for American foreign policy in the Middle East. His determination to secure an Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty transformed the Arab-Israeli confrontation in many ways. During his presidency, the shah of Iran was replaced by Ayatollah Khomeini and the ensuing hostage crisis doomed Carter’s re-election. The Iran-Iraq war also began on his watch. In Afghanistan, Carter devised the strategy and alliances that defeated the Soviet Union and won the Cold War. However, Carter has been an outcast in American politics for four decades.
On June 17, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host award winning author Kai Bird for a discussion of the Carter administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East and Bird’s new book, “The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter,” which considers the triumphs and failures of the Carter presidency. Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, whose career in the CIA began during the Carter administration, will join Bird for a discussion of the legacy of the Carter administration forty years later.
Speakers:
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; Director, The Intelligence Project
Kai Bird
Contributing Editor, The Nation; Executive Director and Distinguished lecturer, Leon Levy Center for Biography, City University of New York
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Stevenson’s army, June 13
The NYT special section on the Pentagon Papers is part of today’s print edition. I want to call to your attention Peter Baker’s piece on leaks and secrets, with footnotes to the Times’ affidavit as part of its court case.
WaPo sums up the Iran negotiations.
WaPo also reports new aspirational cybersecurity pact.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Biden-Putin professional wrestling match
President Biden and Russian President Putin will meet Wednesday in Geneva. Biden has a long-standing distaste for Putin, whose behavior in recent years will have made Biden even more critical. Since their last meeting in 2011, Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, had a leading opposition figure murdered just outside the Kremlin, deployed troops and aircraft to Syria to support dictator Assad with a wide array of war crimes, tried to murder an ex-Russian intelligence agent in Great Britain, tried to murder and then jailed another opposition leader on trumped-up charges, backed Belaruan autocrat Lukashenko after he engineered massive election fraud, and is now busily shutting down what remains of political opposition and civil society in Russia. That is on top of the many episodes of election interference in the US in favor of Donald Trump, Russian hacking of US government cyber systems, and Russian tolerance for cyber ransom attacks that have several times closed important American companies.
It is no surprise there will not be a joint press conference after the Putin/Biden summit. While there may be some positive news on specific issues like arms control, climate change, or the Iran nuclear deal, the atmospherics surrounding this meeting are 180 degrees opposite from President Trump’s attempted lovefest with Putin in 2018, when he said at a joint press conference that he believed Putin’s denials of election interference and not the unanimous rejected the unanimous view of American intelligence agencies.
The choreography leading up to next week’s summit has been careful, perhaps even masterful. Biden, committed to rekindling traditional American alliances, met first in Cornwall with UK Prime Minister Johnson, then rallied the G7 (that’s Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan, as well as the UK and the US) to focus on China and cybersecurity, and next week he will meet first with America’s 29 NATO allies before confronting Putin. Unlike his three predecessors, Biden does not want a “reset” with Putin. He wants to confront him where needed but leave the door open to cooperation on specific issues and even improved relations overall if Putin stops his perfidies.
But Biden knows he won’t. Putin has been in many ways a successful President. Russians often give him credit for revival of their pride and their aspirations to great power status after the economically difficult Yeltsin period. His personal popularity is low at the moment, but he is committed to holding on to power by autocratic if democratic means fail. Russian parliamentary elections in September (and the presidential election in 2024) will be far from free and fair. There is not much the Americans can do about that. Even getting Alexei Navalny out of jail is more than they have managed so far.
Putin will want to use the meeting with Biden to shore up his domestic support. He can do that best by being confrontational. Biden, who has much stronger domestic support, will want to do the same thing. He will want to be seen as calling Putin out on election hacking, cybersecurity, and repression of the Russian opposition. Neither bodes well for the occasion. This summit is likely to be like “professional” wrestling: more theater than real, staged for TV and radio, but still with some possibility one or the other protagonist gets hurt.
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Stevenson’s army, June 12
CRS has new study of China’s PLA.
WSJ tells how FBI captured the ransom Bitcoin.
WSJ says Turkey is key to Afghan pullout.
In FP, SAIS prof Edward P. Joseph discusses Balkan policy.
DOD announces security assistance to Ukraine.
NYT has special anniversary report on Pentagon papers. Here’s online link. Haven’t seen a hard copy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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