Even a good election in December won’t solve Libya’s problems

Libyan elections are supposed to take place December 24. But the political process is stalled. Should the elections go ahead? Will they go ahead? The National Council on U.S.-Libya Relations July 12 held a discussion of these issues, hosted by its Founder and Chair, Hani Shennib. In addition to the above, Anas Elgomati, founder of the Tripoli-based Sadeq Institute and a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, also participated.

Langhi noted that the required agreement on the constitutional basis for the election has not been reached. Key issues include non-participation of military officers (opposed by General Haftar) and of those responsible for war crimes as candidates (opposed by Saif al Islam and other Qaddaffi family members). The UN-facilitated meeting of the Libya Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) in Geneva last week was chaotic. A constitutional proposal from the Presidential Council might save the situation. Military figures should not be allowed to run. Libyans don’t want warlord democracy. Libya needs an elected executive body and an elected legislative body. No extension of the Government of National Unity (GNU) will be good for Libya.

Bughaighis thinks postponement would be a disaster and wants the process to be put back on the tracks for December 24. The international community needs to help with security. The question of the oath of office is being sorted out, the consensus is in favor of direct election of the President, dual citizens will be allowed in other positions, minority representation should be solved soon, and military figures will have to be allowed but will have to resign their military positions if elected. It is not clear that all are committed to accepting the results of the election, but it should go ahead as planned.

Elgomati noted the Berlin process is explicitly a state-building based on three tracks: military, political, and economic. Elections are needed to overhaul the political structures, end the military conflict, and establish a democracy. General Haftar is a major issue, as are other militias. It is not clear they want or will tolerate free elections. The election isn’t likely to happen December 24. Even if there is a new government elected, the powers that be will prevent it from governing effectively.

Pusztai thinks there is no better solution at the moment than elections, but it won’t work unless there is a broadly supported constitutional framework and strong turnout. Registration is down. Voter turnout has declined markedly in past elections. If only half a million Libyans vote, the results will not be legitimate. Security and international monitoring (mainly by remote cameras) need to be put in place. Elections could lead to a new civil war, or to a democratically validated government. But the latter outcome will require better conditions. There is a strong possibility that elections will be postponed, which will be tragic.

Eljarh believes Libya is suffering from having chosen expediency over integrity. The elections should be held December 24, but the shift in UN leadership has weakened commitment to the political roadmap decided in Tunis last year. This is causing the process to unravel. Elections in Libya are not about establishing democracy but about who will lead Libya. If the election doesn’t take place, there will be more back-room deals. Power-sharing is an option, but more likely is renewal of conflict and a continuing split in governance between the east and west. In the meanwhile, the international community is focused not on elections but on withdrawal of foreign forces; an agreement between the Russians and Turks could be imminent.

Pack views all the tracks as interlinked by the economy. The question of the budget is central. What matters is the budget and the Central Bank. The international community needs to get serious and use sticks as well as carrots to reform the Libyan economy and liberate it from the powers that be. The UN mediation has been remarkably successful over the past 18 months on the political track, but it ignored everything else. All the status quo players benefit financially from the current situation so they want it to continue. The election is a way of avoiding real progress, but it is unlikely to happen December 24.

Joseph thinks there is forward movement, but a lot depends on how the problem is defined. The problem is disorder. What Libya should be seeking is order. The process is messy, but it is making progress. The question is how to determine who has political power. The US government is understandably not enthusiastic about getting involved, other than dealing with terrorism based in Libya.

Here is the video of the event: