Month: July 2021
Donald Trump’s wild lovefest with the Capitol Police
Just going to leave this here for a while:
So far, 563 people have been charged. More to come.
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Hezbollah holds sway over the Lebanese state, and it’s hard to see it go away
Chatham House’s Lina Khatib recently launched a paper entitled How Hezbollah holds sway over the Lebanese state. The paper deals with the past trajectories through which Hezbollah has become the pivotal actor in Lebanese politics. To discuss her findings and their implications for the state of crisis that has gripped Lebanon for over a year, Chatham House convened a panel discussion July 8. The panel agreed that Hezbollah has played its cards well and has become engrained in Lebanon’s corrupt and non-functioning political system. In fact, it has become its most powerful player in many ways. The current crisis has made its transition from a purported ‘defender of the oppressed’ to an established and corrupt part of the political elite all the more clear. Unfortunately, the panel considered the most needed reforms that would actually benefit the Lebanese people unlikely to succeed in the near future.
The speakers were:
Joseph Daher
Visiting Professor,
University of Lausanne
Lina Khatib
Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme,
Chatham House
Mona Yacoubian
Senior Adviser,
U.S. Institute for Peace
Emile Hokayem (moderator)
Senior Fellow for Middle East Security,
IISS
Hezbollah as a unique, but entrenched part of the corrupt system
Lina Khatib summarized the findings of her new paper. She describes what is commonplace for Lebanese: that Hezbollah has become an entrenched part of the Lebanese system. There is no ‘state-within-a-state’: “Hezbollah permeates the state in Lebanon.” It employs many of the practices that have come to define the corrupt political system. There is no transparency on government tenders, and using ministries to provide rents to constituents is the standard.
Joseph Daher maintains that Hezbollah is the primary defender of the Lebanese neoliberal, sectarian political system. It presents itself as a defender of the oppressed (following the Iranian ideology of ‘Khomeinism‘), but this has proved mainly rhetorical. In practice, it oppresses labor unions and favors wealthy industrialists and crime bosses through the ministries it controls. In short, it behaves exactly as the other political entities in Lebanon.
Nonetheless, Khatib explained that Hezbollah is also unique in Lebanon. It has surveillance capacity. Not just within the state, but within its opponents too. This gives it a large advantage over others. Similarly, most parties take advantage of Lebanon’s corrupt political institutions. Hezbollah is different because they have been systematic in using any opportunity – no matter how small – to advance their influence. Hezbollah has political and coercive leverage over both its allies and its opponents, which gives it a great advantage within the Lebanese state. Even opponents of Hezbollah make deals with it behind closed doors – or sometimes even openly. This is what keeps the system in place. As Mona Yacoubian put it, Hezbollah has transformed into the “praetorian guard” of the corrupt Lebanese system.
Toeing the line between state and non-state
Hezbollah’s other major advantage is its status as a hybrid actor. Khatib explains that toeing the line between state and non-state is an ideal situation for Hezbollah. It has influence and legitimacy due to its ties to the state, but is not really a state actor, and is not seen as really in charge of state institutions. There are four main reasons why Hezbollah has no intention of changing this situation:
- The Lebanese state is very weak and not appealing to take over
- There is no Shia majority in Lebanon; outright Hezbollah rule would not be tolerated
- Hezbollah avoids accountability by shirking ownership of the state
- Hezbollah is under sanctions as a terrorist organization in the West, complicating its role as would-be regime.
All of them means all of them
Yacoubian pointed out that Hezbollah’s image has been tarnished, even among its own constituency. The slogan of the Lebanese protest movement ‘all of them means all of them’ refuses to differentiate among the political class. “You see now a political class that is defined purely by self-enrichment and is utterly devoid of any pretense of representing any higher ideal or value.” Yacoubian would go so far as to maintain that there are few real political divisions left among Lebanon’s ruling class.
Hezbollah’s resilience: Iranian support and no alternatives
According to Khatib, Iran’s support to Hezbollah is absolute. Anyone who thinks that Hezbollah can Lebanonize and be removed from Iran’s orbit is dreaming. Steadfast Iranian support makes it stronger than its domestic opponents. With its constituency, it proves resilient because it argues that there is no alternative. Hezbollah’s constituency might not like the party, but they see that there is no realistic alternative to the services it provides. Daher added that Hezbollah’s humanitarian outreach is very large. It claims to have helped some 50.000 families on top of their normal activities in the months of April and May alone. No other actor in Lebanon can match that.
Prospects for reform
So how to move forward? Khatib made it clear that the solution is not to extract Hezbollah from Lebanon, as this would be impossible. A solution would be to reform the Lebanese political system. This needs to be Lebanese-led, but it will require foreign aid. Yacoubian agreed. She proposed a number of concrete reforms that foreign actors can contribute to:
- Support the Lebanese Armed Forces, the only state institution standing between where we are today and total chaos. This is one of the few policies that is continuing today, primarily by the US.
- Cabinet formation and the ability to move forward with reforms are essential. The US, Gulf, and EU can do more to pressure the political elite to form a technocratic government. Steps towards this could be sanctions against the most corrupt political leaders who are obstructing government formation. This is currently happening haphazardly, but it could be done more concertedly.
- The international community can and should do more in the way of humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable Lebanese. Bypassing the government is vital to avoid corruption. Perhaps a special UN agency could be tasked with this.
Khatib warned that economic pressure and sanctions alone are unlikely to change Hezbollah’s behavior on its own. As with the IRGC, a weakened currency only benefits Hizbollah, as they make their money abroad, in US dollars. The same is true for Assad in Syria. Sanctions are important, but they aren’t a primary tool. They need to be part of a comprehensive approach.
The panel was pessimistic about the prospects of efficient foreign support for reform. Khatib warned that Hezbollah benefits from the common attitude that sees Lebanon as a lost cause. If the international community gives up and maintains the status quo, Hezbollah benefits. Therefore, bottom-up reform is key. But Daher believes that the Lebanese protest movement has failed to create a unified answer to the corrupt system. He sees the international response as lacking originality. They are now attempting to get Saudi Arabia back to the table and to resume cabinet formation. These efforts will sustain the sectarian parties and system in the paradigm that has been employed for the last several decades.
Khatib emphasized that incremental change must be possible. The gradual approach by which Hezbollah grew its influence can be reversed in small steps. Nonetheless, Hokayem summarized Daher’s pessimistic view. Reform won’t come from the top down in Lebanon, it isn’t emerging in an organized form from the bottom up, and meaningful change is unlikely to come from the outside.
Watch the recording of the event here:
https://www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/videos/1419092855114088
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Peace Picks | July 12-16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Views from the Hill: A Conversation with Rep. Tom Malinowski | July 12, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host Congressman Tom Malinowski in a conversation moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Gerald Feierstein. Congressman Malinowski will begin with remarks on the Biden administration’s approach to key Middle East challenges, including its efforts to elevate human rights into long-standing partnerships with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, how to jumpstart negotiations with Iran, and how to build on the recent normalizations with Israel.
How is Congress thinking about the new administration’s handoff with legacies of the Trump administration including blank checks on human rights, no-questions-asked weapons sales, and the Abraham Accords? How do the Biden administration’s commitments to prioritizing human rights stand up in the Middle East? What’s behind the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic engagements?
Speakers:
Rep. Tom Malinowski
US Congressman, 7th District of New Jersey
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feirstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
- The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter | July 12, 2021 | 4:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Pulitzer-winning historian Bird (The Good Spy) discerns much positive achievement in Carter’s one-term presidency, including airline deregulation that made flying cheap; prescient energy policies that boosted domestic energy supplies and solar power; human rights initiatives…and the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement… Bird skillfully paints Carter as a mix of genuine idealism and “clear-eyed ruthlessness” behind a folksy facade, and shrewdly analyzes the forces of stagflation, deindustrialization, and U.S. imperial decline—capped by the Iran hostage crisis—that hobbled him. The result is a lucid, penetrating portrait that should spur reconsideration of Carter’s much-maligned presidency.
Speakers:
Kai Bird
Former Fellow; Director of the Leon Levy Center for Biography at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen
Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University, Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association
- A Conversation with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | July 13, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Director-General Okonjo-Iweala has been chosen to lead the WTO at one of the most challenging moments in the history of the institution. After navigating tariff disputes and trade wars in 2018 and 2019, the WTO is now at the center of helping restart the engine of global trade. As vaccination efforts continue, countries are looking to see how the WTO will address critical issues including vaccine nationalism and supply chain bottlenecks. For a historic moment, the member nations of the WTO made a historic selection. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala is the first woman and first African to lead the organization. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala will join the Council for a candid conversation on the WTO’s priorities and her vision for 2021 and beyond. What role should intellectual property play in promoting equitable vaccine distribution? How can citizens left behind by the forces of global trade over the past several decades be supported? These are just some of the many challenges facing the WTO.
Speakers:
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Director-General World Trade Organization
Frederick Kempe (moderator)
President and CEO, The Atlantic Council
- Book Launch: A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States | July 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
Free zones are common features of Gulf Arab states and their economies, but these trade and investment hubs are often understood only in a very narrow sense. Free zones sit at the nexus of some of the region’s most contentious political economy issues: foreign ownership, expatriate labor, and taxes and other commercial fees. Established entities like the Jebel Ali Free Zones have significantly improved Dubai’s commercial reputation, while nascent and aspirational megaprojects – from Saudi Arabia’s Neom to Kuwait’s Silk City – incorporate free zone characteristics. The UAE’s sprawling free zone system continues to expand, and newer leaders, such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, appear committed to advance free zone-led development projects.
How have free zones around the Gulf contributed to economic diversification, the strengthening of the private sector, and employment creation? Are foreign ownership reforms, workforce nationalization initiatives, and new taxes and fees threatening to diminish incentives that free zones offer prospective investors? What role do free zones play in guarding against illicit financial flows? And how do free zones feature in diplomatic relations and the opening of new markets, from Israel to China?
Speakers:
Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman
President, AGSIW
Robert Mogielnicki
Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW
Ziad Daoud
Chief Middle East Economist, Bloomberg Economics
Sanam Vakil
Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House
- Building Faster to Achieve Net-Zero | July 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Bipartisan Policy Center | Register Here
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires building clean infrastructure at a significantly faster pace than we are currently able to site, permit, and approve infrastructure projects. Absent dramatic improvement, important projects and new technologies will sit on the sidelines and achieving net-zero by 2050 will be impossible. The Bipartisan Policy Center’s Smarter, Cleaner, Faster Infrastructure Task Force released 23 federal policy recommendations to accelerate the deployment of clean infrastructure. Join us for a virtual discussion in this second of a joint event series with Aspen Institute’s Energy & Environment Program on building faster to decarbonize our economy.
Speakers:
Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL)
United States House of Representatives
Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND)
United States House of Representatives
Bobby Jindal
Former Governor of Louisiana
- Saudi Arabia: Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges | July 14, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its July 2021 Article IV Consultation. This webinar will address the report in the context of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy and assess the government’s policy response. With lasting effects from the pandemic and lower oil prices through early 2021, fiscal pressure increased and heightened the pace of some economic reform. As the non-oil economy begins to recover, the Saudi government is faced with immediate policy challenges and the longer-term challenge of diversification away from oil reliance.
hat fiscal policy challenges has the volatility in the oil market created? How well are reforms meeting the need to generate more jobs for Saudi nationals in the private sector? How has the trajectory of foreign direct investment flows impacted the transformation of the Saudi economy?
Speakers:
Faris Al-Sulayman
Research fellow, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; PhD Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tim Callen
Assistant director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
- Tokyo and the Long Game for the Olympics | July 14, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Having postponed the Games by a year as a result of the global pandemic, Tokyo will be hosting the Summer Olympics later this month. Although the worst of the spread of COVID may appear to be over in some parts of the world, concerns about the risks of hosting the Games continue to persist. It has also led to discussions worldwide about the future of the Olympic Games and prospects for hosting massive sporting events. Join us for a discussion on how the Olympics have shaped the political dynamics within Japan, and the challenges as well as opportunities for Japan becoming the first country to host the Games during a pandemic.
Speakers:
Jules Boykoff
Professor and Politics and Government Chair, Pacific University
Heather Dichter
Associate Professor, De Montfort University School of Humanities
Yuhei Inoue
Reader, Sports Management, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School
Shihoko Goto (moderator)
Deputy Director for Geoeconomics and Senior Associate for Northeast Asia, Asia Program, The Wilson Center
- Cybersecurity on the Final Frontier: Protecting Our Critical Space Assets from Cyber Threats | July 14, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Our overwhelming reliance on space technology puts us in a precarious position. Like any other increasingly digitized critical infrastructure, satellites and other space-based assets are vulnerable to cyberattacks. These concerns are no longer merely hypothetical and, if not mitigated, could interfere with the space-enabled technology we take for granted in our day-to-day lives as well as national security and global economic development broadly.
This event will offer expert insights into understanding and navigating the increasingly contested cyber threat landscape in space, including threat vectors unique to a space cyber attack, and high-level drivers necessary for hardening our critical space systems.
Speakers:
Meg King
Director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
Jamie M. Morin
Executive Director of the Center for Space Policy and Strategy, the Aerospace Corporation
Theresa Hitchens (moderator)
Space and Air Force Reporter, Breaking Defense
Brandon Bailey (panelist)
Cybersecurity Senior Project Leader, Cyber Assessments and Research Department, the Aerospace Corporation
Prashant Doshi (panelist)
Associate Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
Erin Miller
Executive Director, Space ISAC
Ryan Speelman
Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
- The Renewal of Transatlantic Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition | July 15, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the world enters a new era of strategic competition, the transatlantic community will need to work closely to drive a new global agenda and advance a rules-based international order. China has grown more confident, and Russia more aggressive. Authoritarianism is resurgent, while democracies face critical challenges both at home and abroad. The purpose of this event is to discuss ways that the United States, Europe, and Canada can advance shared priorities and revitalize the most powerful democratic community in modern history.
Speakers:
Amb. Paula Dobriansky
Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Erik Brattberg
Director of the Europe Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ben Haddad
Director of the Europe Center, Atlantic Council
Luiza ch. Savage
Executive Director of Editorial Initiatives at Politico and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Sophia Gaston
Director, British Foreign Policy Group
Ash Jain
Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Jonathan Berkshire Miller
Director & Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Bruce Jones
Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Ben Roswell
President and Research Director, Canadian International Council
Maureen Boyd
Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and Senior Fellow, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University
- Can a New U.N. Produce Peace in Yemen? | July 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
When Martin Griffiths, the outgoing United Nations special envoy to Yemen, gave his final briefing to the U.N. Security Council on June 15, he painted a “bleak picture” of stalled efforts to broker a cease-fire and initiate talks over ending the country’s 6-year civil war. Since former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appointed the U.N.’s first special representative to Yemen in 2011, the country has undergone a precipitous transformation, with successive envoys overseeing an unsuccessful political transition and the eruption of a civil war, with little progress toward peace.
With diplomatic circles now humming with speculation about who will replace Griffiths, what issues should be top of the new envoy’s agenda? How has the situation in Yemen changed since the appointment of the first U.N. envoy, and have mediation efforts kept pace with the evolution of the conflict? What lessons can be gleaned from the efforts of previous special envoys? And what recommendations can be made for the incoming envoy?
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Non-Resident Fellow, Middle East Institute
Peter Salisbury
Senior Analyst, Yemen, Crisis Group
Gregory D. Johnsen
Former Member, U.N. Panel of Experts on Yemen
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Even a good election in December won’t solve Libya’s problems
Libyan elections are supposed to take place December 24. But the political process is stalled. Should the elections go ahead? Will they go ahead? The National Council on U.S.-Libya Relations July 12 held a discussion of these issues, hosted by its Founder and Chair, Hani Shennib. In addition to the above, Anas Elgomati, founder of the Tripoli-based Sadeq Institute and a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, also participated.
Langhi noted that the required agreement on the constitutional basis for the election has not been reached. Key issues include non-participation of military officers (opposed by General Haftar) and of those responsible for war crimes as candidates (opposed by Saif al Islam and other Qaddaffi family members). The UN-facilitated meeting of the Libya Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) in Geneva last week was chaotic. A constitutional proposal from the Presidential Council might save the situation. Military figures should not be allowed to run. Libyans don’t want warlord democracy. Libya needs an elected executive body and an elected legislative body. No extension of the Government of National Unity (GNU) will be good for Libya.
Bughaighis thinks postponement would be a disaster and wants the process to be put back on the tracks for December 24. The international community needs to help with security. The question of the oath of office is being sorted out, the consensus is in favor of direct election of the President, dual citizens will be allowed in other positions, minority representation should be solved soon, and military figures will have to be allowed but will have to resign their military positions if elected. It is not clear that all are committed to accepting the results of the election, but it should go ahead as planned.
Elgomati noted the Berlin process is explicitly a state-building based on three tracks: military, political, and economic. Elections are needed to overhaul the political structures, end the military conflict, and establish a democracy. General Haftar is a major issue, as are other militias. It is not clear they want or will tolerate free elections. The election isn’t likely to happen December 24. Even if there is a new government elected, the powers that be will prevent it from governing effectively.
Pusztai thinks there is no better solution at the moment than elections, but it won’t work unless there is a broadly supported constitutional framework and strong turnout. Registration is down. Voter turnout has declined markedly in past elections. If only half a million Libyans vote, the results will not be legitimate. Security and international monitoring (mainly by remote cameras) need to be put in place. Elections could lead to a new civil war, or to a democratically validated government. But the latter outcome will require better conditions. There is a strong possibility that elections will be postponed, which will be tragic.
Eljarh believes Libya is suffering from having chosen expediency over integrity. The elections should be held December 24, but the shift in UN leadership has weakened commitment to the political roadmap decided in Tunis last year. This is causing the process to unravel. Elections in Libya are not about establishing democracy but about who will lead Libya. If the election doesn’t take place, there will be more back-room deals. Power-sharing is an option, but more likely is renewal of conflict and a continuing split in governance between the east and west. In the meanwhile, the international community is focused not on elections but on withdrawal of foreign forces; an agreement between the Russians and Turks could be imminent.
Pack views all the tracks as interlinked by the economy. The question of the budget is central. What matters is the budget and the Central Bank. The international community needs to get serious and use sticks as well as carrots to reform the Libyan economy and liberate it from the powers that be. The UN mediation has been remarkably successful over the past 18 months on the political track, but it ignored everything else. All the status quo players benefit financially from the current situation so they want it to continue. The election is a way of avoiding real progress, but it is unlikely to happen December 24.
Joseph thinks there is forward movement, but a lot depends on how the problem is defined. The problem is disorder. What Libya should be seeking is order. The process is messy, but it is making progress. The question is how to determine who has political power. The US government is understandably not enthusiastic about getting involved, other than dealing with terrorism based in Libya.
Here is the video of the event:
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Stevenson’s army, July 12
–Biggest protests in Cuba in years.
–Defense companies keep raking in the dollars.
–Russia has a new national security strategy and it includes climate change.
-WOTR reports on the fight over Diego Garcia. [I hope you can open this link, if not just go to Punchbowl]
-Punchbowl lays out the Congressional options for the next several busy weeks.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).–
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Stevenson’s army, July 11
I can’t figure out what’s happening in Haiti, but sure hope somebody can. WaPo says observers fear a “Somalia in the Caribbean.“
NYT summarizes the power struggle. There’s a poor country with a long history of poverty, political violence, corruption. No wonder the US doesn’t want to get involved militarily. WaPo has scary first-person story.
Nobody knows who hired the Colombian mercenaries who are alleged to be the assassins
of the president. I’m waiting for one of the China hawks to blame Beijing because Haiti is one of the few countries to recognize Taiwan and there was a break in at the embassy [I don’t think this is likely, but conspiracy theories don’t require evidence.]
Catching up with other items worth reading:
– How WH reporters are coping with Trump’s absence.
– Dan Drezner explains “lab leaks” from IR scholars. He draws on FP piece by former APSA Congressional Fellow Paul Musgrave.
– FP notes Chinese interest in bases across the Indo-Pacific.
– Since President Biden made a vigorous defense of his Afghanistan policy and even answered questions, I thought you should see the full transcript.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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