peacefare.net

Let the people go, but save those who remain too

The continuing chaos both outside and inside Kabul airport raises difficult questions. Let’s assume all the expats (people without Afghanistan citizenship) get evacuated in the next few days. The foreign powers–not only the US but Germany, UK, France, South Korea, Japan and others–will do their best to find and transport their citizens. The far bigger problem–numerically and morally–is the number of Afghans and Afghan dual citizens, many of whom will be left behind.

While President Ghani’s government lacked popular support, democratization and modernization in Afghanistan had lots, especially in urban areas. The results were in plain sight: girls and women getting educated and holding jobs, health standards and life expectancy improved, literacy increased, free media flourished, and civil society boomed. The educated middle class that made these improvements possible, the “NATO generation,” is now at risk. We are not talking tens of thousands here, or even hundreds of thousands, but millions.

The Taliban are now saying they will not permit Afghan citizens to leave. That presumably also includes dual citizens, though I won’t be surprised if many of them do get out. Still, an enormous number of relatively competent, freedom-seeking Afghans will remain at the mercy of young fighting men in need of jobs, ready to kill those they perceive as opponents, and disdainful of women’s rights. The Taliban’s ability to respond to their own supporters’ expectations will be very limited: foreign aid is abruptly ending and the country’s foreign currency reserves are frozen.

A bloodbath, or a civil war, is certainly possible. Not surprisingly, resistance forces are already gathering in the Panjshir valley, where the strongest opposition to the Taliban emerged the last time around. Pakistan, slow to realize the implications for its own national security of having a jihadist neighbor to its west and north, is trying to convince the Taliban to form an “inclusive” government, which would presumably rule out export of extremism. Iran, delighted with the humiliation of the Americans but concerned about a jihadist neighbor to its east, will press for the same. Russia may do likewise, as it fears export of jihadism to the stans to its south. China ditto, as it fears the spread of jihadism across Xinjiang’s short border with Afghanistan and wants a reliable and stable Afghanistan to form part of its Belt and Road.

The Americans are going to have some difficult choices to make. There is no immediate hope of ousting the Taliban. Humanitarian assistance through multilateral organizations and nongoverrnmental organizations should continue, but we need to consider what specific conditions will need to be met in order to allow the International Financial Institutions to work in Afghanistan and even to allow our own assistance to be renewed and diplomatic relations restored.

The Taliban leaders and spokesmen are saying they don’t want Afghans to flee. Some of them may genuinely realize that they need well-educated people to stay. But the behavior of their militants so far belies that:

The fate of those Afghans who support democracy but remain in the country is precarious. August 31 will leave millions of them still at risk inside Afghanistan. Let the people go, but we should also do all we can to save those who remain.