Month: August 2021
Turkey and Israel need to compartmentalize disagreements and cooperate
Not too long ago, Turkey and Israel had a good working relationship. That changed with the rise of Erdogan in Turkey and the increasing focus on Turkey’s intended leadership of the Islamic world. After 2010, the two countries no longer have diplomatic relations, and recently discussions of Eastern Mediterranean gas pipelines became a new potential stumbling block. However, these two countries are key US allies. The importance of their cooperation only increases now that the US is slowly withdrawing from the Middle East. A recent call between Israeli president Herzog and Turkey’s Erdogan could signal a new opening.
The Atlantic Council convened a panel of diplomats and academics to discuss these issues and their implications for the future. The experts saw potential for future cooperation, but this will depend on the states’ ability to understand each others security red lines, and to compartmentalize their relationship.
The speakers were:
Jonathan H. Ferziger
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs
Atlantic Council
Former Middle East Correspondent
Bloomberg
Amb. Mithat Rende
Former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Turkey to the OECD
Prof. Brenda Shaffer
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center
Atlantic Council
Amb. Matthew J. Bryza (moderator)
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council in Turkey; Global Energy Center & Eurasia Center,
Atlantic Council
Defne Arslan (introduction)
Director, Atlantic Council in Turkey
Atlantic Council
How we got here
Bryza explained that Israel and Turkey had what amounted to a strategic partnership until relatively recently. He and co-panelist Rende lobbied at that time to realize an Israeli-Turkish gas pipeline. With the rise of Erdogan to power this all changed. His increased focus on Islamic solidarity drew him away from Israel, which he criticized for its treatment of Palestinian rights. The relationship reached a low point with the ‘Mavi Marmara Incident’ also known as the Gaza Flotilla Raid in 2010. Turkey was attempting to break the Israeli blockade on Gaza in Ferziger‘s words, by sending a shipment with aid to the enclave by boat. Israel responded by raiding the boat, leading to the deaths of nine Turkish nationals. Afterwards, Erdogan severed diplomatic relations.
In recent times, there have been cautious signs of improvements. Most notable is the call between Erdogan and Herzog on July 12. Ferziger reminded that Herzog’s role is largely ceremonial in Israeli politics, meaning that this shouldn’t be seen as a call on the highest level. Nonetheless, it does signal willingness on both sides for some level of communication.
Current disagreements
At the core of the bilateral strife are the Palestinians. Erdogan attacks Israel frequently and supports Hamas, whose leaders are often present in Turkey itself. This support for Hamas is an absolute red line to Israel. Shaffer believes that diplomatic initiatives are infeasible if a military presence of Hamas in Turkey remains. Some sort of civilian representation might be feasible, but no more than that. Furthermore, Bryza explained that Turkey’s rhetoric angers Israelis. Erdogan has moderated his comments recently, but with (potentially early) elections coming up, Bryza questioned if he will he be able to avoid nationalist rhetoric in his battle against right-wing rivals.
Israeli domestic politics also complicate the matter. Ferziger said that it is certain that Netanyahu will do whatever he can to paint reconnection with Turkey as a bad choice, while he privately is convinced that it is a good thing. The opposition will use Turkey’s ties to Hamas to make this diplomatic development very difficult.
Ferziger explained that the Hamas connection does help Erdogan, although not as much as one might think. He is popular in Gaza. But in the West Bank he is ‘banned’ and support for him is repressed by the Palestinian Authority. In East Jerusalem, PA control is not universal, meaning that this repression is less total. Nonetheless, Erdogan isn’t the only leader attempting to woo the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia is also engaging in humanitarian and development projects in Palestine. Alongside streets adorned with images of Erdogan, there are streets with those of Mohammed bin Salman. Moreover, Turkish attempts to become involved with the al-Aqsa mosque are met with resistance from Jordan, who currently operates it.
Rende underlined an issue from the Turkish perspective. There is a perception in Turkey that Israel supports the YPG and the establishment of an autonomous territory for the Kurds in Syria. Turkey rejects this as it considers the YPG a terrorist organization linked to the PKK. Shaffer believes that Turkish support for Hamas appears similar to Israel as Israel’s support to the YPG appears to Turkey. There is a need to understand from both sides that support for the Palestinians doesn’t have to equal support for Hamas and that support for the Kurds doesn’t have to equal support for the PKK.
The potential for future cooperation
Despite these issues, the panel generally appeared optimistic on the prospect of cooperation in other fields. The potential for establishing a natural gas pipeline was often mentioned in this regard. Turkey is the region’s only growing market for natural gas according to Rende. As Shaffer opined, connecting Israeli gas to Europe is most logical by attaching to the existing pipelines in Turkey. She explained that Israel is in doubt whether to attempt a gas pipeline through Greece or through Turkey. As Shaffer put it, there is an idea in Israel that it’s either good relations with Greece or with Turkey. But Turkey and Greece have more functional relationships with one another than Israel and Turkey. “There is no reason to be more Greek than the Greeks.”
The prospect of compartmentalizing their relationship was something some panelists were enthusiastic about. Shaffer suggested Turkey should deal with Israel as it does with China. The suppression of Uyghurs in China is completely unpalatable to the Turkish population, and yet Turkey is able to compartmentalize the relationship and engages with China extensively. Iran and Turkey too have tensions surrounding the Azeri population of Iran, which Erdogan has hinted in the past should be united with Azerbaijan. Despite these tensions, Turkey engages with Iran where necessary. Rende added that Turkey has huge differences with the US as well, but that doesn’t stop from cooperating fruitfully.
Shaffer hoped the US might attempt to steer Israel and Turkey more in that direction. The role of a superpower is not only to fight its enemies but to manage its allies. Obama and Trump have done a bad job at this according to her. Having Israel, Turkey, Cyprus, etcetera bickering is not good for the US.
Rende summarized his perspective neatly. Common grounds:
- Trade
- Tourism
- Energy/natural gas
- Defense industry/technology
- Agriculture/water
But the countries countries suffer from a lack of trust and confidence in one another. They must build these up slowly again.
Good steps towards this would be:
- Re-establish ambassadors
- Stop harsh rhetoric through the media
- Establish (ad-hoc) working groups and establish an agenda for cooperation
Watch the recording of the event here:
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The wagons had better be circled
Even a quick glance at a map tells the story:
The Taliban, already strong among the Pashtuns in the east and south, are encircling the country in the mostly non-Pashtun north and west, capturing a string of provincial capitals and other population centers. They will eventually want to close in on Kabul.
What could stop the Taliban advance? Three things, in combination:
- US air power
- Diplomatic pressure
- Consolidation of the Afghan security forces
The first two are happening. The US appears to be upping its air strikes and is trying to convince the Taliban it will be a pariah if wins the country by force. Pakistan is key in the international arena, as it provides the Taliban with safe haven. But there is little sign of the third: the Afghan Armed Forces (AAF) are giving in to the Taliban in many places without a fight.
It is hard to imagine they would do that in Kabul. But holding Kabul and surrounding areas will be little comfort if the rest of the country falls. Already many civilians are fleeing from the countryside toward the capital, worsening conditions there and making relief both vital and difficult.
President Ghani may still be able however to hold on, at least for a while. A lot of Afghans don’t want the Taliban back. There is little pressure in Washington so far to cut off the funding that goes mainly to the AAF, though that specter could still emerge. Withdrawal of Soviet troops and then cut-off of Soviet aid to Afghanistan in 1992 precipitated the fall of the Communist government there, just as an agreement to withdraw troops and reduction of American aid to South Vietnam contributed to the collapse of its army and goverrnment in 1975. With the American and NATO troop withdrawal virtually complete, Ghani will be watching the American budget process attentively.
In the meanwhile, he can do little more than withdraw his security forces from contested areas and try to hold only a relatively few vital population centers. At some point, a mutually hurting stalemate could create conditions for a negotiated outcome, but the Taliban role in that outcome will be enlarged by its growing control of territory.
Around 2015 I rejected an offer to join a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan. It didn’t take clairvoyance to know that the cause there was already lost. The question now is not whether it can be won, but how many more people will suffer and how much more damage will be done before the political outcome is clear. A great deal depends on deliberations among the Taliban about how much further they want to fight, but the omens are not good. The wagons had better be circled.
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Stevenson’s army, August 10
– AP sees no increase in US airstrikes in Afghanistan.
– Jeff Schogol says B52s and AC130s are going there.
– WSJ says Russia is having problems in Syria.
Confession: NYT says its prize winning reporter covering the Manhattan Project took money and distorted some news. The paper also tells about a black reporter who exposed lies about radiation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks August 9 – 15, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Update on the Victims of Sinjar: The Need to Locate Thousands of Missing Yezidis | August 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2014 the Islamic State began its campaign to annihilate Yezidis in Iraq and Syria. The territorial defeat of ISIS did not, however, end the suffering of Yezidis and other victims of Daesh. Until now, there are an estimated 2,868 Yezidis whose whereabouts are still unknown. Many of them were presumed to be dead. However, in July, Yezidi women were discovered in Syria and Iraq who had been missing since 2014 – underscoring the need for concerted international search efforts. Yezidi civil society organizations have called upon the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, the Iraqi Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria, Interpol, UNITAD, UNAMI, and other stakeholders to craft a plan and mount a serious effort to locate Yezidi abductees who are still alive and suffering.
Speakers:
Peter Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia and Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations in Afghanistan
Abid Shamdeen
Co-Founder & Executive Director, Nadia’s Initiative
Nisan Ahmado
Journalist, Voice of America
Merissa Khurma (introduction)
Program Direct, Middle East Program, The Wilson Center
Amy Austin (moderator)
Public Policy fellow and former visiting Scholar at Harvard University
- RESCHEDULED: U.S. National Security in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Senator Tammy Duckworth | August 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation with U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). She will discuss U.S. national security in the Indo-Pacific and her recent visit to the region. Senator Duckworth is an Iraq War Veteran, Purple Heart recipient and former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. A Blackhawk helicopter pilot, she was among the first handful of Army women to fly combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Senator Duckworth served in the Reserve Forces for 23 years before retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in 2014. She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016 after representing Illinois’s Eighth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for two terms.
Senator Duckworth serves on the Armed Services Committee; the Environment & Public Works Committee; the Commerce, Science, Transportation Committee; and the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee.
Speakers:
U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Member, Senate Armed Services Committee
Nina Easton
Senior Associate (non-resident), CSIS
Beverly Kirk
Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, and Director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative
- The Future of Data, Oceans, and International Affairs | August 11, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Oceans are known as the final frontier. Currently, humanity knows less about oceans than about outer space. The oceans present potential solutions to some of our world’s most pressing problems such as climate change and food security, and are also an emergent strategic geopolitical battleground, with recent increased activity in the South China Sea. This GeoTech Hour will cover current oceanic data gaps, how and when these data gaps may be filled, and the implications of filling such data gaps. It will further touch upon the intersection between the oceans and international affairs, and how data is transforming this relationship.
Additionally, understanding both the deep ocean as well as coastal areas will be essential for our future ahead. Our panelists will also discuss the need to be prepared for when climate change starts to cause both extreme ocean-related weather events, such as severe hurricanes and typhoons – as well as “splash over events”, where ocean water mixes with land-based sources for potable freshwater.
Speakers:
Thammy Evans
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
Horst Kremers
Secretary-General, Senior Engineer and Information Scientist, andInformation Systems Strategy Advisor, RIMMA CoE
Eric Rasmussen
CEO, Infinitum Humanitarian Systems (IHS)
Sahil Shah
Co-founder and Director, Sustainable Seaweed
David Bray, PhD
Director, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
- Hindsight Up Front: Afghanistan | Ambassador Mark Green in Conversation with H.R. McMaster | August 12, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
This event, part of Hindsight Up Front, the Wilson Center’s new Afghanistan initiative, features a discussion with H.R. McMaster, a national security adviser in the Trump administration and currently the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. The conversation—moderated by Wilson Center President, Director, and CEO Mark Green—will assess nearly 20 years of U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, focus on the U.S. withdrawal and its implications, and consider options for future U.S. policy. The discussion will also explore immediate policy recommendations for the Biden administration, and what can be done to ensure that U.S. interests in Afghanistan continue to be advanced.
Speakers:
Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster
Ambassador Mark Green (moderator)
President, Director & CEO, Wilson Center
- Exploring Humanitarian Frameworks for Venezuela: Learning from Iraq’s UN Program Failure | August 11, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
On August 13, the Venezuelan opposition and Maduro will meet in Mexico to kick off Norwegian-mediated negotiations. With political discussions soon to be underway, it’s simultaneously important to consider pathways for expanded and more effective humanitarian assistance. One historical experience that offers insight into what does not work and what could work: Iraq’s 1996 oil-for-food program with the United Nations.
What are the lessons learned from Iraq’s humanitarian program that are applicable to Venezuela? How can the role of the US and the international community in the Iraq experience be applied to present-day Venezuela? What other avenues exist to address Venezuela’s ongoing humanitarian crisis?
Speakers:
Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Hagar Hajjar Chemali
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council; Former Director of Communications and Spokesperson, US Mission to the United Nations
Francisco Monaldi
Director and Fellow,Latin America Initiative, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
Patricia Ventura
Director,Regional Public Affairs and Government Relations, IPD Latin America
Tamara Herrera
Managing Director and Chief Economist, Síntesis Financiera
Jason Marczak (moderator)
Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Diego Area (moderator)
Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
- Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump | August 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | CATO Institute | Register Here
For an entire generation, at home and abroad, the United States has waged a war on terror. Fighting it has produced neither peace nor victory, but it has transformed America. A politically divided country turned the war on terror into a cultural and then tribal struggle, first on the ideological fringes and ultimately expanding to open a door for today’s nationalist, exclusionary resurgence.
In Reign of Terror, journalist Spencer Ackerman argues that war on terror policies laid a foundation for American authoritarianism. In Ackerman’s account, Barack Obama’s failure to end the war on terror after the killing of Osama Bin Laden allowed cultural polarization to progress and set the groundwork for Donald Trump’s rise to power. As we approach the 20th anniversary of 9/11, please join us for a discussion of how the war on terror transformed the United States and the prospects for moving away from its divisive excesses.
Speakers:
Spencer Ackerman
Author, Contributing Editor, Daily Beast
Abigail R. Hall
Associate Professor in Economics, Bellarmine University
Erin M. Simpson
Former Co-Host, Bombshell podcast from War on the Rocks
Justin Logan
Senior Fellow, CATO Institute
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Stevenson’s army, August 9
– Global warming is accelerating, IPCC says.
– Interagency meeting on “Havana Syndrome” finds more questions than answers.
– Senate glides toward infrastructure passage.
– Biden names critic to oversee NordStream2 deal.
Book note: I’ve just read the policy sections of Carter Malkasian’s book,The American War in Afghanistan. [He also has detailed chapters on US military operations.] My reaction:
Who lost Afghanistan? is the wrong question. It assumes agency, when few complex events are monocausal, and it seeks to assign blame, where responsibilities are widely shared. Better to ask, why did things turn out that way?
In his wide-ranging and detailed study of the conflict in Afghanistan during 2001-2021, The American War in Afghanistan [Oxford University Press],Carter Malkasian finds many moments of missed opportunities for peace and many questionable decisions that made things worse. A Pashto-speaking civilian working in Afghanistan who later served as a special assistant to CJCS General Dunford, Malkasian knows both American and Taliban officials as well as the territory and culture of Afghanistan.
The war brought benefits to many Afghans, but it also built resistance to outsiders that has long been a feature of Afghan history. “Afghanistan cleaved into an urban democracy and a rural Islamic order,” Malkasian writes. He mentions the impact of government incompetence and corruption and the role of Pakistan support for the Taliban, but ultimately concludes that the Taliban fighters had a greater willingness to kill and to be killed than their opponents. [He notes that one Taliban leader proudly sent his own son as a suicide bomber.]
“[T]he Taliban stood for what it meant to be Afghan.…Tainted by its alignment with the United States, the [Kabul] government had a much weaker claim to these values and thus a much harder time motivating supporters to go to the same lengths.”
Malkasian documents many consequential choices made by the Americans:
– refusing to allow any power sharing with the Taliban;
– failing to do much to build up the Afghan army and police during 2001-5 [in part of course, because of the U.S. turn to fight a war in Iraq];
– U.S. military tactics that killed many civilians and alienated others;
– overly optimistic U.S. generals that their ways would work;
– insufficient U.S. air strikes in 2014-15;
– ruptured relations with the Karzai government;
– mishandled peace talks in 2019-20 that rewarded the Taliban while leaving many crucial issues unsettled.
Maybe we need to revise the adage and conclude that defeat, not victory, has 100 fathers in this case.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 8
– An individual Senator is slowing work on infrastructure bill.
– In fact, the Senate has been meeting on a lot of weekends in recent years.
-NYT reports on fall of Kunduz to Taliban.
– NYT also details recruitment of mercenaries from Colombia.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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