Month: October 2021
Stevenson’s army, October 31
Boo!
On this day my elementary school teachers insisted it be spelled Hallowe’en.
The Biden administration is ending its steel and aluminum tariffs and substituting quotas, NYT reports, as does Politico.
LA Times says US has made new offer to Iran.
NYT ponders why Pres. Xi hasn’t left China in 21 months.
History lesson: why Pres. Kennedy decided not to match Soviet super bomb.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 30
– WaPo summarizes the intelligence report on Covid19’s origins. Here’s the document.
– NSA Sullivan & USTR Tai clash over China sanctions.
– NYT notes complications facing nuclear subs for Australia.
– CRS has some interesting new reports — on emerging military technologies and on legislation related to foreign coups.
– NYT tells of US efforts to head off Sudan coup.
– Politico says Mike Pence spoke to rally of anti-Iranian group once listed as terrorist.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Libya is taking baby steps in the right direction
Wolfgang Pusztai writes:
In order to end the conflict and to achieve security and stability in Libya as a basis for peace and state-building, first and foremost an executive – a government – and a legislative – a parliament – legitimated by credible elections are required.
There was nothing really new at [last week’s] International Libya Stabilization Conference, which was organized by Libya’s Foreign Minister Najla Al Mangoush. There was not even a common final statement, because the delegations could not agree about some key points like the withdrawal of foreign forces. However, the final drive to the elections must now come from the Libyans themselves anyway.
On the security side reliable supervision of the ceasefire is necessary, but I doubt that 60 civilian UN observers will be sufficient. A secure environment must be also established in the greater capital area, where there is fighting between the various militias (who are all considered part of the GNU’S security forces) almost every week.
On the political side regionalization and an agreement about the distribution of the oil revenues between the central state and the three historic provinces are without any realistic alternative.
Security and political stability should help to stabilize the oil and gas production, but Libya still needs foreign know-how and foreign investors. Most companies are still very hesitant to return. Therefore Libya also needs to build credibility, honor obligations from the past and find settlements with the many companies who lost a huge amount of money during and after the revolution (not only with the Turkish ones). Such agreements should help to build trust again.
Fortunately there is a drive towards the elections. Several persons have announced officially to run for presidency. Fathi Bashagha, ex-Minister of the Interior and promising presidential candidate from Misrata committed already to accept the outcome of the elections. The others should follow his example to ensure a broad acceptance of the election results.
Libya really needs a man of integrity as president, well-rooted in Libyan tradition, but with good connections to international actors and who stayed preferably out of day-by-day politics in Libya during the last years.
Wolfgang also discussed the Libya situation with last night on VoA with Mohamed Elshinnawi.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 28
– Taiwan confirms US troop training.
– Iran will return to nuclear talks.
– Iran complains of hacking attack on gas stations.
– NYT says Iran now worries about Taliban.
– Language: a professor says we need new language for national security issues.
– A journalist decries the use of “snowclones.”
– Think about this: Dan Drezner raises serious doubts that Havana syndrome is an attack by outsiders. It may be a psychogenic illness.
– UVa researcher describes GOP path to power.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
The Balkans got its due, but there are bigger issues
Deputy Assistant Secretary Gabriel Escobar, in charge of relations with the Western Balkans, testified this morning at the House Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber. He toed the traditional US lines: EU accession within a foreseeable timeframe of all the Western Balkan states, maintenance of their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and countering the malign influence in the region of Russia and China. The specifics included
- a start to EU accession negotiations for Albania and Macedonia before the end of this year,
- support for the EU “normalization” dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade with the aim (ideally) of mutual recognition,
- insistence on sovereignty, inclusiveness, and democracy in Montenegro,
- hope for electoral, economic and rule of law reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and
- sharp criticism of those who want Republika Srpska’s 49% to secede.
The House members were supportive but questioned Escobar on whether US the negotiator for electoral reforms was too close to the ethnic nationalists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, whether enough is being done to counter China and Russia, what more might be done on energy and trade, and how the Adminstration’s authority to impose corruption-related sanctions will be used. Escobar asserted that the US push for Bosnian electoral reforms will aim at ensuring all citizens are treated equally (as required by European court decisions), he emphasized the US lacks the autocratic tools that China uses to penetrate the region economically, he elaborated on energy issues (especially the prospects for liquified natural gas), and he pledged vigorous use of the new sanctions authority.
It was a fine performance, but I would fault it on a few details: even a lukewaram endorsement of the Open Balkans initiative that Serbia is pursuing should be conditioned on the requirement to treat all prospective members, including Kosovo, as equal partners. Failure to mention the EU’s long delay in granting Kosovo a visa waiver program is an important error of omission, as it has caused the most EU-positive country in the region to suffer increasing doubts about whether its government can deliver. I am also skeptical of the pursuit of electoral reforms within a flawed constitutional structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We’ll just have to wait and see whether that will work well or simply solidify the ethnic nationalist hold on power. Russian progress in penetrating and instrumentalizing its relationship with Serbia was not, I think, adequately appreciated, especially in the military sphere as Serbia massively re-arms to the consternation of its neighbors.
All that said, the big missing piece was how we get to the Administration’s goals–EU membership for all the countries of the Western Balkans–from where we are. The EU quite rightly has tightened requirements for membership, based on its not entirely happy experience with new members who slide backwards in their commitments to accountable and transparent government, individual rights, foreign policy alignment, and other important dimensions of joining the EU. The Western Balkan countries are complaining bitterly that enlargement lacks political support among many member states. The result has been a seemingly ever-more-distant horizon for accession, over which the US has precious little leverage.
One parting note: the House members may not be able to pronounce “Podgorica,” but their questioning was apt and even perspicacious. Two of the members have significant numbers of Bosnians resident in their districts, one has been involved with the region in various capacities for decades, and others just seemed well-staffed. But no one should be fooled: this hearing will get little or no ink in tomorrow’s papers, which are much more interested in the torturous trajectory of President Biden’s budget proposals. Today’s hearings on climate change will attract a lot more attention. The Western Balkans got its due, but there are a lot bigger issues out there.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Syria in focus: security, justice, social cohesion
Don’t miss this (livestream should be here):
RSS - Posts
