Month: November 2021
Stevenson’s army, November 22
[This is the 58th anniversary of the assassination of President Kennedy.]
– FT has more on the Chinese hypersonic missile test.
– WSJ says US thwarted secret Chinese project in UAE.
– US warns allies of Russia attack on Ukraine.
– WaPo says DOD reviews NATO exercises, concerned they may be too provocative.
-NYT says Iranian nuclear programs revive despite Israeli attacks.
-Carnegie analysts see clash between US security and democracy interests.
– Sudan’s PM restored to position.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 19
I’m traveling so missed some Stevenson’s army, but here it is for today:
– After a record-breaking speech by leader McCarthy, the House is expected to vote on the domestic programs bill. Meanwhile, the Senate can’t get a UC on NDAA because various Senators want their amendments to be included.
– Promised Hill staff pay raises haven’t come.
– NYT says Iranian missile attack on US forces was in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes.
– FP says US has put more troops in Taiwan.
– Axios says US is ignoring religious liberty report’s criticism of India.
– A Saudi intelligence official has written a memoir.
-And David Brooks sees a pattern in young conservative thinking.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 16
– NYT has a report on the Biden-Xi discussions as well as an analysis with insider comments.
– NBC reports drone strike at Iraqi PM likely came from militias, not Iran.
– WSJ reports secret Chinese purchase of Italian drone maker.
– US criticizes Russian anti-satellite test.
– Jeff Schogol hits DOD failures to admit errors.
And WOTR has a sad but too often true story of military weapon design and procurement — in this case the Littoral Combat Ship.
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Siyasa Podcast: Episode 1: US-Iran negotiations and the region — with Vali Nasr
The first episode of podcast Siyasa, which discusses Middle East policy and politics.
Episode 1: Are both sides interested in reaching a new deal? What are the main obstacles? What do the Saudi-Iranian negotiations in Baghdad mean for the region? The podcast’s host Ibrahim Al-Assil discusses these and other questions with professor Vali Nasr.
You can also listen to the podcast on:
Spotify
Google Podcast
The podcast will be available on Apple podcast within a few days.
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Stevenson’s army, November 15
– FT says intelligence warns of Russian escalation in Ukraine.
– Defense groups warn of problems with delayed CR.
– Politico says Samantha Power has leverage.
-NYT says GOP gaining in redistricting.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A necessary and unavoidable but constructive failure
The UN’s Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP 26) ended yesterday with a lengthy, consensus declaration. The Glasgow Climate Pact includes something for just about everyone and not enough for anyone. That’s what you expect from a consensus document purporting to represent the views of 197 countries that are collectively fouling the global commons. Nor is it surprising that the current commitments of the parties, despite significant strengthening before and during the conference, will not achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade.
The implications are dire. At higher temperatures than that goal, global warming will raise sea levels enough to drown some island countries and deprive many others of their current coastlines, generate even more dramatic storms and forest fires than we are already seeing, shift agricultural patterns in ways that hinder growing enough to meet global demand, and make parts of the planet even more uninhabitable than they already are. The costs will be astronomical. The human implications tragic. There is nothing to celebrate about COP 26 if you are looking only at the physical implications of what was decided in Glasgow, even if you welcome the substantial agreements reached on methane and deforestation.
The conference was however a success in another sense: without it, things would have been worse. Glasgow upped the ante on climate change. No government on earth can now ignore it entirely. Even laggards like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have been announcing new goals and counter measures. President Biden has put climate change high on his agenda, reversing President Trump’s foolish and counterproductive effort to ignore it. Island nations whose physical existence is threatened had their voices magnified. Less developed countries had their needs acknowledged, if not yet fully funded. None of this is enough, but much of it would not have happened without Glasgow.
This is typical of large international conferences. The UN is doing what it can and should. Such conferences serve to mobilize public opinion and shift attitudes, even if they fail to solve the problems they aim to solve. The key now is to maintain the momentum and raise the political pressure. The parties have agreed to meet again next year in Egypt, where no doubt the appeals for action and money will be heightened. Expanding economies in what we can hope will be the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely make the prospects for meeting the goal of 1.5 degrees centigrade even dimmer than they are today. Don’t expect good news, but next year’s conference will again be a necessary, unavoidable but constructive failure.
That’s how the international system works. Get used to it. This is going to go on for decades.
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