Focus on what matters

In addition to the previous, I did this interview with Besnik Velija of Kosovo’s Gazeta Express on New Year’s eve (it was published in Albanian this morning):

Q: I am writing about the US involvement in Western Balkans developments. Mr. Jeffrey Hovenier now is officially the new US Ambassador at Kosovo, Mr. Christopher Hill at Serbia. We have also Mr. Escobar as Special Representative for the Western Balkans. 

With the completion of this mosaic of important people in the Western Balkans, do you expect an offensive by Joe Biden in 2022?

A: I expect this new crew to want to accomplish something in the Western Balkans, starting in 2022. Their focus initially will likely be on preventing disaster in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but they will also want to achieve something with Kosovo and Serbia.

Q: Do you expect concrete developments in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue?

A: Yes. I certainly hope to see progress on missing people and on financial issues. I would also like to see adoption in the Western Balkans, including by Pristina and Belgrade, of principles that govern correct behavior towards neighbors, along with implementation plans.

Q: Do you find the EU negotiation model profitable, and do you think that the US should take over the entire Kosovo-Serbia dialogue process, in order to end the protracted negotiations?

A: I think the EU process is still the best forum available, but it requires more support and commitment from the US, including monitoring implementation of agreements reached. I doubt the US will take it over, as the destiny of the Western Balkans is in Europe.

Q: What do you think about a meeting at the White House, led by Biden, that would not end without the parties reaching a final agreement?

A: Such spectaculars happen only when carefully prepared. I see no prospect that either Belgrade or Pristina will be ready for it before the Serbian presidential election next year, and perhaps not after that either.

Q: If a final agreement is not reached with these people and with Joe Biden at the helm of the US, what do you foresee for the Western Balkans and specifically for Kosovo and Serbia?

A: Whether a “final” agreement is reached or not, what I hope is the Western Balkans will focus on what matters: preparation for EU accession and, for those who want it, NATO membership. The benefits of both come mainly from those preparations. Once qualified, potential EU member states will need to wait for the political window to open, likely not much before the end of this decade. The road is long. Slow but steady will win this race.