Categories: Daniel Serwer

Make Putin watch his back

Alexander Vindman is the former National Security Council official who gave vital incriminating testimony in Trump’s first impeachment. He blew the whistle on the President’s phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine, in which Trump sought dirt on then candidate Joe Biden. Now a doctoral student at SAIS, Vindman has interesting, if discouraging, things to say about Russian intentions with respect to Ukraine:

NPR, All Things Considered, January 10
Not a lot of good options in Ukraine

Vindman believes Russia is likely to invade Ukraine, with the aim of keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence and making it a failed state, one that cannot offer a democratic model for those who want to escape Moscow’s tentacles. Sanctions he thinks won’t have much more impact than in the past, because Russia has hardened its economy against them. In addition, Putin controls a $620 billion sovereign wealth fund, and China will help cushion the blow.

The best military hope lies in NATO countries. The US could station more troops in NATO countries near Ukraine. They, especially those on the eastern front that Russia threatens, could in turn train the Ukrainians and perhaps deploy troops and equipment to help the Ukrainian army defend against attack.

But Putin is vulnerable elsewhere

Vindman ignores Putin’s vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine. One of these was dramatically apparent in Kazakhstan over the last few days, when protesters challenged President Tokayev. The protests quickly turned violent. Tokayev sought Russian help to protect vital installations and ordered his forces to shoot to kill.

The Russians did not send a big force–supposedly only 2500 troops–but Putin is also saddled with defending his annexation of Crimea, besieged Belarusan President Lukashenko, secessionist provinces in Georgia, and the homicidal Syrian President Assad, not to mention maintaining Russian forces in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Russians are also active through proxy forces in Libya and the Central African Republic. They are building bases in half a dozen African countries. Russian empire-building is reaching further than even Moscow’s Soviet-era ambitions.

A crisis in any one of these places could bring a halt to Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine.

Including at home

Putin is also vulnerable at home. While he has acquired de facto autocratic powers, he is less popular than once he was. Corruption is his Achilles heel. The Kremlin has murdered one potential rival and poisoned, then imprisoned, another. A free and fair election could well do Putin in, so he won’t allow that. He also faces local ethnic and religious minority resistance to his increasingly nationalist and chauvinist rule.

If the Americans want to protect Ukraine, they will need not only to beef up its defenses and undermine Russia’s economy, but also figure out how to exploit Putin’s political and military vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine.

Make Putin watch his back.

Daniel Serwer

Share
Published by
Daniel Serwer

Recent Posts

Hope is where the wild things are

Hope lies wherever the restraining and suffocating writ of the Trump Administration does not extend.…

2 days ago

America made a giant mistake

It will take more time for Americans to fathom the mistake they have made. But…

5 days ago

Serbia is going backwards

I received this plea today. The issues are not new but now the situation is…

2 weeks ago

Might doesn’t make right, but it’s winning

Trump can't get anything out of Putin because the American President has already given too…

2 weeks ago

Neither nothingburger nor whopper

Putin has weathered sanctions so far. And Trump shows no signs of taking advantage of…

3 weeks ago

Proving the opposite of what he intends

What Dodik is showing is that an unconstrained RS is a barrier to Bosnia's functionality…

3 weeks ago