peacefare.net

Europe neither whole nor free won’t last forever

For three decades, Washington has sought a Europe “whole and free.” Once the Iron Curtain came down and the Soviet Union broke up, it seemed possible that liberal democracy would spread eastward and southward, into former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact states as well as the Balkans.

The enterprise went well for a decade or two. The Baltic republics and most of what was then termed Eastern Europe joined NATO and the EU, as did some of the Balkan countries. Russian objections were minimal. But the wars of Yugoslav succession in the 1990s and state collapse in Albania delayed the process for some. Russian intervention in the 2000s delayed others.

Resurgent Russia has Chinese backing

Russia is now resurgent militarily and financially. It is flexing its muscles on the borders of Ukraine. Moscow aims to block further progress in making Europe whole and free. It also hopes to roll it back where it can. China, in many ways the greater power, is backing Russian pretensions, not least because the Russian challenge reduces the capacity to enhance American military presence in Asia. China and Russia also want to demonstrate the resilience of autocracy even as democracies are struggling to cope with COVID and populist, often ethnic, nationalism.

The threat is real

The Russian threat to Ukraine is real. Over 100,000 troops, including frontline combat units, are poised to enter Ukraine from Russia to the east, Belarus to the north, and Crimea to the south. The UK and US have unveiled Russian plots to stage provocations intended to justify intervention. No one knows whether President Putin will pull the trigger, but the gun is loaded and pointed at Ukraine.

The Americans have what they can

President Biden is trying to focus on the more reasonable of Putin’s demands. These include a discussion of force deployments in Europe, especially intermediate range missiles. Biden has also sent a lot of training and equipment to the Ukrainian army and threatened dramatic economic sanctions. Those moves are intended as deterrence. The United States will not defend Ukraine as it would a NATO ally, because Ukraine isn’t one. But it will also not rule out forever Ukrainian membership in the Alliance, which is one of Putin’s unreasonable demands.

Europe whole and free is already a dead letter

If Russia invades, Europe whole and free will obviously be a dead letter. But in many ways it already is. Russian troublemaking in the Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and elsewhere has become endemic. Russian assassination attempts, rented violent crowds, extremist gangs, cyberattacks, disinformation, and threats to cut off natural gas supplies have become daily events. These are key tools of the “hybrid warfare” Russia finds useful and convenient, as they are relatively cheap and unlikely to provoke much reaction the Kremlin can’t parry.

With Xi in his corner, Putin will return to Moscow from the Beijing Olympics with an army poised to invade Ukraine, the ground frozen to suit his tanks, and a big decision to make. He lacks only the (optional) Ukrainian provocation. If he wants one, his secret services will no doubt provide.

An invasion will embarrass the Americans

A Russian invasion of Ukraine will put Biden in an awkward position. He has deployed a few thousand Americans to eastern NATO allies, and NATO is ready to deploy more. But they have a more political than military purpose. They reassure Poland and Romania and act as a tripwire for broader US involvement. Biden does not want to be snookered into defending Ukraine or going to war with Russia. If a Russian invasion is successful, it will be a short-term embarrassment for the Americans and give Biden’s opponents a talking point, even if the Republicans share the desire to avoid war.

But it won’t be a long-term triumph for Moscow

A successful Russian invasion will however not be a long-term triumph for Moscow. It will solidify NATO and turn most of the Ukrainian population into sworn enemies. Putin will face a post-war reconstruction challenge many times the size of the one he has failed to meet in the parts of Donbas Russian proxies already occupy. The United States did not fight the Soviet invasions of Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968), but both were prelude to revolutions decades later that laid the basis for the end of the Soviet Union. Europe neither whole nor free won’t last forever.