First bite taken, but still hungry for more

Russian President Putin has made his move against Ukraine. He yesterday recognized the “independence” of Luhansk and Donetsk and deployed Russian forces. For now, they remain in territory already under Russian control. No one will swallow his “peacekeepers” line, which he has previously used in the occupied Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The irony of occupying a territory you’ve just recognized as independent seems lost on him.

There is another irony. Putin’s move is not welcome in Kyiv, but it relieves Ukraine of any lingering obligation to implement the Minsk 2 agreement. That would have given Luhansk and Donetsk some say-so, if not a veto, in Kyiv. But there would still have been no near-term prospect of reintegrating them with the rest of the country. If Kyiv continues on the path of serious political and economic reform, it will be clear soon enough to the remaining residents of the secessionist territory where their bread is best buttered.

Crimea, which Russia has annexed and militarized, is a separate question.

The big question is how much further Putin will go. In the best of all possible worlds, he would stop now, declaring his objective achieved. That is unlikely. An obvious next move would be to occupy parts of the secessonist provinces not already under Russian control. That would be harder, but not likely too hard. He could also take part or all of Ukraine’s southern coast, focusing first on the littoral of the Sea of Azov. That approach would be more feasible for Moscow and less deadly than a full-scale invasion and occupation of the entire country.

Full-scale invasion would be colosally stupid

Some think however that Putin is in the first stage of a full-scale invasion aimed at occupying all of Ukraine. That would be colosally stupid:

1. Ukraine is a country of 44 million people, larger than Iraq or Afghanistan when the US invaded them. It is the second largest in Europe, next to Russia.
2. Even if every one of the 150,000 Russian troops in the invasion force were to enter Ukraine, there would still be 300 Ukrainians for every Russian.
3. Past experience suggests a force of over 650,000 would be required for a comparable “heavy” peacekeeping operation, 80,000 or so for a “light” one in which the local security forces are cooperative. In Ukraine, they won’t be.
4. The direct costs would range up to $100 billion if things go well, not counting the economic impact.
5. Moscow is claiming the West is weak so now is the time to strike, but there are lots of indications that the West is united and not so weak. The sanctions it imposes will be unprecedented and punishing if Russia tries to take all of Ukraine.
6. Putin believes in a history of Ukraine and its relations with Russia that is at best fabricated and at worst delusional.
7. It makes no sense to invade a country whose population you claim are your “brothers” or to occupy one you’ve just recognized as independent.
8. Russia has been alleging Ukrainian provocations that are blatant lies.
9. Moscow wants Ukraine not to join NATO, but it knows that is not in the cards for at least another decade, if ever.
10. The Russian invasion threat has made NATO membership far more desirable to many Ukrainians than it once was. Removing Luhansk and Donetsk from Kyiv’s control subtracts a lot of anti-NATO people from the political equation inside Ukraine.

Moscow theater

Putin started yesterday staging a National Security Council meeting that looked more like a school room listening to his dull lecture:

Then these top officials took turns glumly lying to the press about Ukrainian provocations. Putin wrapped the day with his recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk. The Soviets were better at this, but the performance was in their tradition.

The Western reaction

Ukraine and the West will not accept the already announced partition or full-scale occupation. Yesterday, the Americans announced sanctions on the economy and secessionist authorities in Luhansk and Donetsk. That won’t frighten Putin or anyone else. Far more effective is German Chancellor Scholz’s halt to the administrative procedure needed to open the Nordstream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. That will get some attention in Moscow, but it is also painful in Berlin.

The West needs to be ready to react with more vigorous and united sanctions. But we also need not hit so hard that Putin concludes we have nothing left in reserve. The European security order is at stake in Ukraine. Washington should ensure the punishment for undermining that order is not only severe but can also get worse.

Putin has taken his first bite, but he is hungry for more.