Day: February 27, 2022
Stevenson’s army, February 27
– Germany approves sending weapons to Ukraine.
– Europe agrees to Swift sanction.
– Slate has as good list of additional possible sanctions.
– Russian infantry now attacking Kharkiv
But note these reports on Saturday from a friend whose client has business interests in Ukraine:
Attacks Around Ukraine – “Indiscriminate shelling by cruise missiles and various range rockets continues throughout northern and western Ukraine. These attacks are not supported by ground forces. The one exception is Kharkiv. Kharkiv, once a Ukrainian capital, is under air and ground attack from numerous directions as is Kyiv. The attacks on Kharkiv have been beaten off by a combination of military and volunteer forces and since mid-day yesterday the Russians have been shelling Kharkiv suburbs with no military significance. Civilian deaths have now been reported from all parts of Ukraine and currently exceed 300. Military deaths are now reported at around 400.”
Minimal commitment of Russian infantry. Russia has not been able to control air, due to a combination of skilled Ukrainian pilots, SA-2 anti-aircraft missiles that date back to Soviet times, and the apparent deployment of AWACS planes under NATO command, with the capability of jamming Russian tactical communications, both air and ground, and aircraft targeting and navigation equipment. They are flying over Polish and Romanian territory. Their jamming equipment has a radius of over 450 miles (725KM), allowing the AWACS to cover the entire Ukrainian airspace from a stand-off position. With no commitment of infantry and limited ability to control the air, it appears that Russia is relying on missile strikes launched from Russia and Belarus against civilian targets inside Ukraine, like this example, trying to intimidate Ukrainians into pressuring the Government into peace negotiations
Market Vendors – The street market vendors in our neighborhood of Kyiv are emptying bottles of beer on the street, and then they give the empties to others to fill the empties with gasoline for Molotov Cocktails.
Drone Strike – Earlier today, one of Ukraine’s Turkish-made drones took out an entire Russian re-supply column, including supplies of gasoline, ammunition, and food.
Logistics – Logistics seems to be a major Russian weakness. They have little or no experience in re-supply. The 2008 invasion of Georgia lasted 4 days, and Russia had complete control of Georgian airspace. In Georgia, re-supply was not a problem. It is likely that Russia assumed that the invasion of Ukraine would take only a few days, and therefore re-supply wouldn’t be a problem. It appears that Russian forces are in danger of running out of fuel and ammunition. As for food, there were reports that when they were in Belarus, before the Ukraine invasion started, Russian troops were not being fed, and they had to buy food on their own, or forage.
Ground Attacks – “For example, the fighting near my home consisted of a breakthrough of one tank and two armored personnel carriers coming in from the north at 2 am. Prior to their arrival a cruise missile hit a military academy about two kilometers away. The column was coming in after the missile. They were stopped and destroyed with anti-tank weaponry. Two soldiers got away and they were killed by small arms fire. From start to finish about two hours.”
Little or no infantry support. It seems as if Russia doesn’t want to commit infantry into an urban setting, leaving armor open to attacks from Ukrainians firing anti-tank missiles from hidden positions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Russians are hell-bent on war crimes
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has slowed and perhaps even stalled. Ukrainian forces have proven tougher than expected. President Putin Friday appealed for negotiations, encouraged a coup, and yesterday mobilized Russia’s nuclear forces. These are signs he wants the fighting to stop. Moscow has agreed to talks today at the Belarusan border without preconditions. President Zelensky has concurred too, but he is still sounding feisty:
I need ammunition, not a ride.
Outcome uncertain
Russia is favored in resources, manpower, technology, and geography. Putin appears willing to pay whatever price for victory. The question is whether his own administration will permit it. The Russian home front is restive. The anti-war demonstrators won’t be the only ones who oppose him. Inside the Russian security forces there will be general officers unhappy with sacrifice of the army’s resources and capabilities. Putin has presumably coup-proofed himself, just as he has sanctions-proofed the Russian economy. But the protection that affords will not be 100%.
The plywood curtain
No one can predict, however, when Russia will give up on the occupation of Ukraine. It took years in Afghanistan for the mujahadeen to convince Moscow to withdraw. The talks today are unlikely to produce what Kyiv will require: complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine’s territory, including Donbas and Crimea.
In the meanwhile, a new curtain will descend in Europe. The newly drawn line will divide democracies from Russian-controlled autocracies. It won’t be an Iron Curtain. More like a plywood one. Strong, but not unbreakable. Europe “whole and free” will remain a Western mantra. It will not however be a serious proposition so long as Putin or someone of his ilk governs in Moscow.
Belarus and occupied Ukraine as well as Kazakhstan, the other ‘stans, Armenia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and at least part of Moldova will be behind the plywood curtain. The question mark will be in the Balkans. Will Serbia choose to remain on the Russian side? Or will it find ways and means to become a serious pro-EU state? So long as Milorad Dodik rules de facto in the Serb 49% (by area) of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo will not be able to do what most of its population wants: side with the West.
The rest of the world has decisions to make too
China, India, and the United Arab Emirates abstained in the UN Security Council vote on a resolution denouncing Russian aggression. China will try to walk the fine line: against NATO membership for Ukraine but favorable to an (still imaginary) negotiated settlement. India is trying to stay neutral, which amounts to tacit support for Russia.
The UAE made a big mistake. No small country without the means to defend itself militarily against its big neighbors should be siding with Russia. That applies also to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. Saudi Arabia’s autocracy is laying low for now, enjoying $100/barrel oil. Turkey and Israel have spoken out, but the latter worries about its relations with Russia in Syria as well as the relatives of its Russian-origin citizens still inside Russia. Zelensky has called for Israeli mediation.
The Germans have made theirs
The Germans took a big step yesterday: they will transfer Stinger anti-aircraft weapons and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine and allowing other countries to transfer German weapons. They have also reversed their postion on shutting the interbank payments system (SWIFT) to some Russian entities. These are major steps that betoken how dramatically the Russian invasion has unified and emboldened NATO.
But Moscow is hell-bent on war crimes
The invasion itself is a war crime. In addition, Moscow is trying to encircle Ukraine’s main cities and getting ready to bombard them. Siege is also a war crime, as it targets not only military objectives but also civilian ones. But it is up to the UN Security Council to decide whether aggression has taken place or to refer Russia to the International Criminal Court. The Russians won’t miss their opportunities to veto.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an exercise in raw power. It aims to replace a democratically elected government with a puppet regime answerable to Moscow. Putin will stop only if compelled either by domestic pressures or military defeat. The Russians are hell-bent on committing war crimes.
PS: Zelensky does have panache, or at least he did in 2006 when he won the Ukrainian Dancing with the Stars:
PSS: Then there is this too, which I wouldn’t call panache, but it takes balls and I’m sure Putin couldn’t manage it:
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