Stevenson’s army, February 27

– Germany approves sending weapons to Ukraine.

– Neighbors welcome refugees.

– Europe agrees to Swift sanction.

– Slate has as good list of additional possible sanctions.

– Russian infantry now attacking Kharkiv

But note these reports on Saturday from a friend whose client has business interests in Ukraine:

Attacks Around Ukraine – “Indiscriminate shelling by cruise missiles and various range rockets continues throughout northern and western Ukraine.  These attacks are not supported by ground forces.  The one exception is Kharkiv.  Kharkiv, once a Ukrainian capital, is under air and ground attack from numerous directions as is Kyiv.  The attacks on Kharkiv have been beaten off by a combination of military and volunteer forces and since mid-day yesterday the Russians have been shelling Kharkiv suburbs with no military significance.  Civilian deaths have now been reported from all parts of Ukraine and currently exceed 300.  Military deaths are now reported at around 400.”

Minimal commitment of Russian infantry. Russia has not been able to control air, due to a combination of skilled Ukrainian pilots, SA-2 anti-aircraft missiles that date back to Soviet times, and the apparent deployment of AWACS planes under NATO command, with the capability of jamming Russian tactical communications, both air and ground, and aircraft targeting and navigation equipment. They are flying over Polish and Romanian territory. Their jamming equipment has a radius of over 450 miles (725KM), allowing the AWACS to cover the entire Ukrainian airspace from a stand-off position. With no commitment of infantry and limited ability to control the air, it appears that Russia is relying on missile strikes launched from Russia and Belarus against civilian targets inside Ukraine, like this example, trying to intimidate Ukrainians into pressuring the Government into peace negotiations

Market Vendors – The street market vendors in our neighborhood of Kyiv are emptying bottles of beer on the street, and then they give the empties to others to fill the empties with gasoline for Molotov Cocktails.

Drone Strike – Earlier today, one of Ukraine’s Turkish-made drones took out an entire Russian re-supply column, including supplies of gasoline, ammunition, and food.

Logistics – Logistics seems to be a major Russian weakness. They have little or no experience in re-supply. The 2008 invasion of Georgia lasted 4 days, and Russia had complete control of Georgian airspace. In Georgia, re-supply was not a problem. It is likely that Russia assumed that the invasion of Ukraine would take only a few days, and therefore re-supply wouldn’t be a problem. It appears that Russian forces are in danger of running out of fuel and ammunition. As for food, there were reports that when they were in Belarus, before the Ukraine invasion started, Russian troops were not being fed, and they had to buy food on their own, or forage.

Ground Attacks – “For example, the fighting near my home consisted of a breakthrough of one tank and two armored personnel carriers coming in from the north at 2 am. Prior to their arrival a cruise missile hit a military academy about two kilometers away. The column was coming in after the missile. They were stopped and destroyed with anti-tank weaponry. Two soldiers got away and they were killed by small arms fire.  From start to finish about two hours.”

Little or no infantry support. It seems as if Russia doesn’t want to commit infantry into an urban setting, leaving armor open to attacks from Ukrainians firing anti-tank missiles from hidden positions.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).