The Russians are hell-bent on war crimes

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has slowed and perhaps even stalled. Ukrainian forces have proven tougher than expected. President Putin Friday appealed for negotiations, encouraged a coup, and yesterday mobilized Russia’s nuclear forces. These are signs he wants the fighting to stop. Moscow has agreed to talks today at the Belarusan border without preconditions. President Zelensky has concurred too, but he is still sounding feisty:

I need ammunition, not a ride.

Outcome uncertain

Russia is favored in resources, manpower, technology, and geography. Putin appears willing to pay whatever price for victory. The question is whether his own administration will permit it. The Russian home front is restive. The anti-war demonstrators won’t be the only ones who oppose him. Inside the Russian security forces there will be general officers unhappy with sacrifice of the army’s resources and capabilities. Putin has presumably coup-proofed himself, just as he has sanctions-proofed the Russian economy. But the protection that affords will not be 100%.

The plywood curtain

No one can predict, however, when Russia will give up on the occupation of Ukraine. It took years in Afghanistan for the mujahadeen to convince Moscow to withdraw. The talks today are unlikely to produce what Kyiv will require: complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine’s territory, including Donbas and Crimea.

In the meanwhile, a new curtain will descend in Europe. The newly drawn line will divide democracies from Russian-controlled autocracies. It won’t be an Iron Curtain. More like a plywood one. Strong, but not unbreakable. Europe “whole and free” will remain a Western mantra. It will not however be a serious proposition so long as Putin or someone of his ilk governs in Moscow.

Belarus and occupied Ukraine as well as Kazakhstan, the other ‘stans, Armenia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and at least part of Moldova will be behind the plywood curtain. The question mark will be in the Balkans. Will Serbia choose to remain on the Russian side? Or will it find ways and means to become a serious pro-EU state? So long as Milorad Dodik rules de facto in the Serb 49% (by area) of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo will not be able to do what most of its population wants: side with the West.

The rest of the world has decisions to make too

China, India, and the United Arab Emirates abstained in the UN Security Council vote on a resolution denouncing Russian aggression. China will try to walk the fine line: against NATO membership for Ukraine but favorable to an (still imaginary) negotiated settlement. India is trying to stay neutral, which amounts to tacit support for Russia.

The UAE made a big mistake. No small country without the means to defend itself militarily against its big neighbors should be siding with Russia. That applies also to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. Saudi Arabia’s autocracy is laying low for now, enjoying $100/barrel oil. Turkey and Israel have spoken out, but the latter worries about its relations with Russia in Syria as well as the relatives of its Russian-origin citizens still inside Russia. Zelensky has called for Israeli mediation.

The Germans have made theirs

The Germans took a big step yesterday: they will transfer Stinger anti-aircraft weapons and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine and allowing other countries to transfer German weapons. They have also reversed their postion on shutting the interbank payments system (SWIFT) to some Russian entities. These are major steps that betoken how dramatically the Russian invasion has unified and emboldened NATO.

But Moscow is hell-bent on war crimes

The invasion itself is a war crime. In addition, Moscow is trying to encircle Ukraine’s main cities and getting ready to bombard them. Siege is also a war crime, as it targets not only military objectives but also civilian ones. But it is up to the UN Security Council to decide whether aggression has taken place or to refer Russia to the International Criminal Court. The Russians won’t miss their opportunities to veto.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an exercise in raw power. It aims to replace a democratically elected government with a puppet regime answerable to Moscow. Putin will stop only if compelled either by domestic pressures or military defeat. The Russians are hell-bent on committing war crimes.

PS: Zelensky does have panache, or at least he did in 2006 when he won the Ukrainian Dancing with the Stars:

PSS: Then there is this too, which I wouldn’t call panache, but it takes balls and I’m sure Putin couldn’t manage it: