Biden merits applause, but Zelensky should take his bows
Conventional wisdom, including my own, has it that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will fundamentally change the world in which we live. Power will become its own raison d’etre. Geopolitics will return not only in national security strategy documents but also in the use of force. Europe will be neither whole nor free, but divided and half unfree. Democracy will need to steel itself for a long struggle with autocracy, not only in Europe but also in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
The other, long-term scenario
But there is another possible scenario emerging, due to the courage and commitment of Ukrainians in general and President Zelensky first and foremost. Russia may taste defeat and need to retreat to heal its wounds and even change its leadership. A free and democratic Ukraine might shake off the trauma of war and re-emerge as a reformed and consolidated state. NATO might be unified as well as enlarged and Europe reinvigorated. Russia might after a while put itself on a democratric path, pay reparations to Ukraine, and return chastened to the world community.
That is a future worth hoping for. The pre-condition however is Russian defeat. Today’s collapse of the ruble, hike in interest rates, and closure of the Russian stock market are good indications.
But the short-term doesn’t look good
Putin will nevertheless double down on his effort to subdue Ukraine. He has no choice. He knows that defeat would be the end of his rule.
That is bad news in the short run for Ukrainians. Russia will lay siege to their cities, bombard civilians, and try to murder Zelensky and the rest of the governing elite. The odds of a Ukrainian win are not good.A week from now the war could look different. The resources, manpower, technology, and ruthlessness are preponderately on Moscow’s side. Moral superiority does not often win wars without those factors.
Even though Europe, the UK, and the US are doing the right things
The world’s major central banks are shutting down relations with Russia, making its massive hard currency reserves inaccessible. Europe has sanctioned Putin and agreed to limit SWIFT transactions of Russians banks. Germany has not only raised its defense spending but is also allowing transfer of weapons to Ukraine. The US and UK have orchestrated pre-emptive use of intelligence as well as dramatic financial sanctions. NATO is strengthening deployments in its eastern-most members.
This is a sterling performance of solidarity in defense of a democratic government.
Biden deserves a lot of credit
President Biden merits credit for much of this Western solidariety. He took his eye off the ball and botched Afghanistan. Ukraine is an entirely different story. Often leading from behind and allowing the Europeans to look good, Biden has managed this crisis well.
I dread to think what might have happened if Trump had still been president. His bozotic praise for Putin and fake bravado could well have taken this crisis off the rails. None of the Republicans criticizing the Administration for not doing more faster against Putin have given a moment’s thought to what is required to keep the Europeans on board and get them out front.
Biden deserves applause tomorrow night when he gives his State of the Union address. But I hope to see the day President Zelensky can take his bows.
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