Month: February 2022
Stevenson’s army, February 26
-WH wants Ukraine supplemental.
– Administration debates arming a Ukrainian insurgency.
– Former CIA official describes such an insurgency.
– NYT sees Russian attack slowed.
– NYT sees pro-Russian sentiment online.
Good background: WaPo ticktock on Biden actions in 2 weeks before the invasion
– NYT annotates Putin war speech.
For people under 30, most of Europe [Balkans excepted] has been at peace, democratic, with freedom of movement of people and goods. That era has ended. We’re back to 19th century politics with 21st century weapons. The first sad lesson about Ukraine that comes to me is what the Indian defense minister said right after the Gulf War in 1991: “Never fight the U.S. without nuclear weapons.” Ukraine surrendered theirs in return for security guarantees from the US and Russia.
On domestic politics, see this centrist Democratic critique of the party’s direction.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 25
You’ll have to follow the war news on your own. WaPo NYT & others have live updates.
Here are some pieces I found interesting:
–Background on Daleep Singh, the NSC guy on sanctions. He forecast what is happening.
– SAIS Prof Hal Brands on the ChIna-Russia connection.
– NYT background on US dealings with China about Russia.
– Chinese foreign ministry press conference on Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Only resistance can stop Putin
President Putin has committed Russia not only to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine but also to replacing its democratically elected government. He wants a vassal state with a puppet government in Kyiv, like Lukashenko’s in Minsk. Donald Trump is expressing his admiration. China’s President Xi is helping finance the enterprise, which has ended a long peace in central Europe.
Putin is winning
I was wrong in thinking Russian objectives would be limited to the south and east. I wasn’t alone. Ukrainian President Zelensky did not anticipate the assault on the capital, which aims to replace him. Russian forces are already in Kyiv, which is suffering bombardment with missiles as well as a ground assault. Appeals to citizens to take up arms at this point aren’t likely to change the situation. Unless something dramatic happens soon, Ukraine will soon be captured, except perhaps for a rump territory around Lviv in the west.
The Western response
The Western reaction has been vigorous. Pre-emptive release of intelligence on Russian plans ruined Putin’s effort to blame the invasion on its Ukrainian victims. Sanctions are making it difficult for Russian banks to survive while the stock market crashes and the ruble tanks. More sanctions are on the way. Banks and individuals will be cut out of world financial markets. Russia will soon find it difficult to obtain Western technology.
But sanctions won’t change Putin’s mind. You get what you want from them only when an opponent negotiates for relief, not when they are imposed.
NATO has beefed up its forces on Russia’s periphery, the opposite of what Putin wanted. Any move against a NATO country now will bring a far wider and more dangerous war.
The conflict will continue
The war may end soon, but the conflict will continue. the Russian government has earned the enmity of all Ukrainian patriots. Unfortunately, some of those are extreme nationalists, but so too are lots of Putin’s supporters in Russia.
It is arguable that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is in the tradition of Hitler’s Anschluss into Austria. The invasion has certainly been justified on similar grounds. Even if the war ends in a Russian victory, the conflict will continue until Ukraine is again an independent state. I doubt however that it will accept the neutral status Austria lives with, and RAND colleagues have proposed. Ukrainians are going to want NATO membership more than ever before.
Impact in Russia
The impact of this war on Russia is difficult to predict. Pre-invasion views of Russians on Ukraine issues were more nuanced than might be assumed. Even views in Donbas were equivocal on remaining in Ukraine. Putin and his circle are diehard Russian nationalists, but he regards Ukrainians as “brothers.” That view is common in Russia. But unlike Putin, most Russians don’t think it appropriate for Cain to kill Abel.
War polarizes. Putin’s propaganda machine is working overtime. His repressive forces are too. Russian police have arrested thousands of anti-war protesters all over the country. The question is whether the economic pain from sanctions will strengthen Putin’s hold on power or loosen it.
Worse in Ukraine
The repression in Ukraine will be far worse than in Russia. Moscow’s forces will attempt to capture or kill the officials of its democratically elected government and parliament. They will install a puppet government that will need to impose its will. Ukraine’s army and police forces will be subjagated and purged. Its educational system will be vetted for hints of anti-Russian or Ukrainian nationalist sentiment. Moscow will take control of the media and install Russia Today and Sputnik, or clones of them, as major outlets.
One outstanding question
It is not clear yet whether Russia will try to take all of Ukraine, or leave a rump territory in the west near Lviv as an escape valve for opponents. That might make repression in Kyiv easier, but it would also given Ukrainians a territory from which to mount an insurgency. Best bet is that Moscow will try for all of Ukraine. Putin will only stop when resistance forces him to do so.
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Geopolitics will take its revenge
One thing is clear this morning: Russian President Putin has chosen war as an instrument of national policy. He has been unequivocal: Ukraine is not a real state, it should not be allowed to choose its own allies, and Russian security interests require that it be under Moscow’s control. The blah-blah about genocide against Russian speakers is nonsense. There is no evidence for it. Putin is attacking Ukraine today because he wants to and can.
Fog of war means we need to await the outcome
Ukraine will be defending itself, without allies. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and other cities have been attacked. Civilians are streaming west to areas they hope will be relatively peaceful. It is hard to miss the analogy to Hitler’s March 1938 Anschluss against Austria, which Fiona Hill noted yesterday on NPR. Most Ukrainians will not welcome the Russians, but their army is far weaker than Russia’s. If the outcome the balance of forces decides the outcome, it will be in Moscow’s favor.
But will to fight and persistence are important factors as well. We just don’t know how strongly the Ukrainians will resist and how long that resistance will last. Putin has signaled that his forces will be brutal, but Ukrainians in the past have proven remarkably resilient, including against the Soviet-perpetrated Holodomor famine that Stalin imposed in the early 1930s. Some of the people fighting now will be descendants of Ukrainians who resisted collectivization then.
We are still in the fog of war and will need to wait to learn the outcome.
Western sanctions are vigorous but won’t have immediate effect
Europe, the UK, and the US are reacting with strong sanctions and in a far more unified way than many had expected just a few weeks ago. Russian banks, oligarchs, and the state will be cut off from Western funding. The Nordstream 2 pipeline to carry natural as from Russia to Germany is suspended if not defunct. The West will be blocking advanced technology from transfer to Moscow.
None of this will change Putin’s mind. He has already taken sanctions into account. Rarely do economic sanctions quickly change any autocrat’s mind about security issues. It is only when you negotiate relief from sanctions, not when you impose them, that you have any real hope of getting what you want. We are witnessing that in the Iran deal negotiations right now.
The world should be on alert
Russia’s irredentist war on Ukraine should alert everyone worldwide to the possibility other autocrats will seek to enlarge their borders, citing cultural affinity, historic claims, or humanitarian goals. In the post-Soviet space, that means all the former republics, but it also extends to the Balkans. There Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina need worry about Serb revanchism.
Moscow could also be thinking about going beyond Ukraine, if this initial invasion is successful. The Baltic members of NATO understand this perfectly well and did their best to arm Ukraine against Russia. They are also welcoming additional American and other NATO forces.
Farther afield, Taiwan needs to worry about China, whose claim to sovereignty over the island is stronger than Russia’s claims against Ukraine. Pakistan should worry about its Durrand Line border with Afghanistan, which even the American-supported governments in Kabul contested. India needs to worry about its longstanding border dispute with China. There are dozens of other border disputes in Asia that could be aggravated if one country or another decides to settle them by force.
The revenge of geopolitics
A geopolitical world in which military power decides issues of territorial control may eventually reach some sort of equilibrium, but it could take a long time. If things go well for Russia, it may be decades before the world settles down. But if things go well for Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be in big trouble. Its people won’t appreciate defeat and will try to change their government. Its many minorities will seek their own territorial control.
Geopolitics will take its revenge, one way or the other.
PS: The criminal falsely citing law:
The voice of reason, to which Putin will not listen:
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Stevenson’s army, February 24
Russia planned its war. US & NATO planned sanctions. Now we see how good the plans were. I am concerned about how well our banking and commercial systems can implement the tough sanctions — the EU list announced yesterday was over 600 pages long. And even removing Russia from SWIFT only forces them to use faxes. I also worry about accidents and miscalculations.
Here’s Putin’s delusional, mendacious war speech.
– David Sanger notes he even claimed Ukraine was seeking nuclear weapons.
– Al jazeera has a good timeline.
– Steve Walt worries about the imbalance of interests and capabilities.
Where is China? FP’s China Watch has a summary. And WaPo has news this morning.
Meanwhile, here’s a piece about a longtime CIA official, a friend of mine. And a New Yorker piece about the Taliban today.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 23
Axios had good items on Russian media.
70% of South Koreans want nuclear weapons.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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