Month: March 2022
Stevenson’s army, March 31
– WSJ says many Europeans don’t want a security guarantee for Ukraine.
– WaPo says Gulf countries unhappy with US.
– US pressured to open consulates in Western Sahara and Jerusalem.
On Ukraine, US continues info ops by claiming Putin angry at military and intelligence.
– UK intelligence chief adds more details of Russian problems.
– Many Russian dead are ethnic minorities.
– WaPo details Russian logistical problems.
-Reuters details repression in Russia.
FY 2022international affairs budget has small increase. Much more proposed for FY 2023
Yesterday I sent Kori Schake’s critique of the new defense budget. Today, read Fred Kaplan’s complaint about excessive spending on nukes. CNAS has its reports on defense. DOD released mere 2 pages summarizing new National Defense Strategy. WaPo shows how Facebook uses K Street to fight TikTok.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 30
– Institute for Study of War has regular military updates on Ulkraine.
– CRS has new update on US assistance to Ukraine.
– NYT notes that the top 3 German security agencies are now run by women.
– WSJ say Taiwan is drawing lessons from Ukraine.
– Reuters says North Korea missile test may have been deception.
-Kori Schake criticizes new defense budget.
History: National Security Archive has declassified material on the B61 bomb and a false alarm of a nuclear attack.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 29
As you know all presidential budgets are wishlists sent to Congress, cloaked in bright political messages. WaPo summarizes those messages and mentions some of the political goals. The real details are at OMB and the various departments.
I’m surprised at how much the administration wants to increase defense and pleased by the additions for international affairs. I’m awaiting analyses of how it proposes to deal with issues like Army vs Air Force and the unknown Ukraine costs.
I’m sure there are budget gimmicks, but haven’t seen any good analyses of them.
Other interesting news: WSJ reports the generational divide among Russian speakers in Latvia.
– NYT recount the history of restraint in attacking enemy sanctuaries.
In preparation for our week 12 discussions of the media, it’s useful to see Columbia Journalism Review’s comment on coverage of Ukraine, including Politico’s Jack Shafer’s column saying journalists love war.
And to correct fake history, proof that W.R. Hearst never told Frederic Remington in Cuba in 1898 to furnish the pictures and he would furnish the war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The way out runs through the Kremlin
President Putin has put himself in a losing situation, almost no matter what happens.
Putin couldn’t afford to win
Had he succeeded in taking Kyiv and overthrowing its government, he would have been in Colin Powell’s china shop quandary: you break it, you bought it. Even without the economic sanctions the West has levied, Russia had nowhere near the resources–hundreds of billions of dollars–required to fix Ukraine. Putin’s successful pacification of Chechnya relied heavily on physical reconstruction and supportive local potentates. Neither would have been available this time around.
He won’t like the consequences of partition either
The Russians have now decided to tone down the military assault on the capital and Russian-speaking Kharkiv. Both cities put up a stalwart defense. Instead, Moscow will focus on the east, where it already controlled parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as the south. The south is proving a challenge. Mariupol refuses to surrender and Kherson, the first major city the Russians captured, is still fighting back.
Here, too, winning is no consolation. If Putin succeeds in partitioning Ukraine, with part of the east and south under Moscow’s military control, the remainder of Ukraine will march straight into the arms NATO. While the Russian reconstruction burden would be lighter, Western sanctions would still make it difficult to bear.
In a partition scenario, NATO won’t welcome Kyiv with open arms. Many members are loath to take on the responsibility of defending any part of Ukraine. But Kyiv will be able to rely on the West for ample rearmament to defend against any new Russian offensive. The Ukrainians will also try hard to qualify for EU membership. After all, EU members Austria, Ireland, Finland, Malta and Sweden are officially neutral.
Losing might be Russia’s best bet
Russia could still lose the war and retreat entirely from Ukraine. It would then have an opportunity to negotiate the end of Western sanctions. That could happen in return for security guarantees for Ukraine, withdrawal of some NATO forces from near Russia’s borders, and limits on Ukrainian armament. Ukraine would still not be welcomed into NATO for the foreseeable future, though no one would guarantee neutral status forever.
But Putin can’t sell it
Russia wouldn’t be the first country to benefit from losing an ill-conceived and poorly executed war. But defeat would not benefit President Putin. Neither popular revolt nor election defeat seems likely, but you never know. You do know however that there are officers in the Russian army who didn’t like the invasion plan. The deaths already of nine or ten general officers in combat, along with more than 10,000 soldiers, won’t have made them happier.
President Biden’s remark in Warsaw about Putin made sense only as a wish for divine justice, or failing that a military coup. Biden says it was an expression of personal outrage, which makes sense. He wants to avoid it becoming the proverbial red line that Obama failed to enforce against President Assad in Syria. But the President also no doubt hopes someone in the inner circle will recognize that Putin has put Russia in a lose-lose-lose situation. The way out runs through the Kremlin.
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Stevenson’s army, March 27
– Biden’s gaffe in Warsaw dominates news coverage.
– WH tries to get media to focus on budget, to be released Monday.
– Sen. Rand Paul [R-KY] blocks passage of Russian trade penalty bill.
– WSJ says Ukraine is exploiting Russian announced change in strategy.
– WaPo explains deaths of several Russian generals.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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This man should not remain in power
I’m enjoying the tempest over President Biden’s remark about Putin, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Some argue the context was Ukraine, not Russia, so Biden wasn’t advocating regime change. That’s what the White House is claiming. Others, like me, recognize that Biden was speaking truth to power. Ukraine will never be safe so long as Putin is in the Kremlin. If we want an end to the horrific violence he is perpetrating, he has to go.
Not my job
I hasten to add that removing Putin is not an American responsibility. The Russian generals who yesterday announced they were moving the goal posts and defining down Russia’s war aims should not stop there. They should be asking who is responsible for the destruction of the Russian Army. Ill-provisioned and ill-led, it is now recruiting mercenaries in the Middle East and buying weapons wherever it can get them. No army worth its name should be doing that thirty days into a war it initiated.
Russia’s citizens should also be asking themselves what happened and why. The majority never supported the war in Ukraine so far as we can tell, but they would presumably have rejoiced at victory. That is no longer in the cards. Most Russians may not know it yet, because Putin’s yes-men are tightly controlling the media. It will take some time to sink in, but Russians will soon understand that instead of greater glory their sacrifices have brought humiliating defeat and devastating economic sanctions.
No comfort to the Ukrainians
That is no comfort to Ukraine’s citizens, who have already suffered massive human and physical destruction. The number killed is unknown, but it has to be in the tens of thousands. The Russians have destroyed thousands of apartments and work places. More than 15% of the country is internally displaced and another 15% has fled the country. This is, proportionately, a disaster like Syria’s, but perpetrated in a month. And Ukraine is much larger in population than Syria.
The big question is how long the Ukrainians can hold out. If they are close to the end, the best they can hope for is a Russian retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and other major population centers. That will give the Russians the forces they need to capture Mariupol in the south and enlarge their holdings in Luhansk and Donetsk. If, however, the Ukrainians can sustain their effort the Russians might do well to escape to their former holdings in Donbas and Crimea.
The shape of the table
Either way, the time is likely not far off that negotiations will begin in earnest. Moscow and Kyiv have been talking with each other directly on and off for the past month. But those talks have not been about the main issues but rather about humanitarian corridors and the like. At a higher level, it is said that Israeli Prime Minister Bennett is mediating. Sometimes Turkish President Erdogan claims that role. French President Macron likes to insert himself. But Ukraine’s President Zelensky has it right: peace will come when he and Putin meet. There is little prospect that either will welcome an intermediary for the real bargain-making.
So the table will be just two-sided, with Putin representing the interests of the Donbas Russian-speakers and Zelensky carrying the burden not only of the Ukrainians but also the Western neighbors and friends of Ukraine. He will be under enormous pressure to agree sooner rather than later, so as to stop the carnage. But he has proven beyond doubt that he seeks to protect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Ukraine. He is not inclined to buy half a loaf.
Zelensky knows what Biden said is unfortunately untrue: Putin can remain in power as long as Russians allow it. There is a world of difference between “cannot” and “should not.”
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