Day: March 1, 2022
Ukraine and Iran will make Syria harder
Ukraine may seem far from Syria. But it is not. Nor is Iran. What happens in Ukraine won’t stay in Ukraine. What happens in Iran as well as Ukraine will affect the now more than decade-old war in Syria, through geography, markets, diplomacy, and politics.
The fighting and sanctions will hamper Russia in Syria
The Russians have been fighting insurgency in Syria since 2015, primarily with air power but also with some troops on the ground. The effort is not large, but Ukraine will take priority. Sanctions will severely limit Russian financial resources. This could affect not only military resources but also willingness to invest in reconstruction. The state-owned companies that might take such a risk are not going to have the cash to do it.
In addition, Russian relations with Turkey, the US, and possibly Israel will be strained. Cooperation with Turkey is important in northwest Syria, where Turkish troops and proxies are in control. Cooperation is important with the US in northeast Syria, where American troops are supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Israel depends on Russian restraint when its aircraft attack Iranian forces and shipments inside Syria.
Moscow will have little reason to segregate the diplomatic and deconfliction issues in Syria from Ukraine. A weakened Russia may well seek pressure points in Syria to respond to international pressure in Ukraine.
Iran will be emboldened
Russia and Iran both support the Assad regime in Syria, but they also compete for influence there. Assuming the Iran nuclear deal revives, Tehran will have a lot more money with oil at around $100/barrel. Some portion of that will find its way to military and financial support for Assad. Even if the JCPOA remains moribund, Iran will find itself strengthened in Syria relative to Russia. It will try to use that strength to embed itself more strongly into the Syrian regime, in particular its security forces (which have grown closer to Russia in recent years).
An emboldened Iran will be less likely to compromise on Syria issues than a weakened Russia, but Moscow has the vital veto in the UN Security Council. Tehran might be even more inclined than Russia to shut off vital cross-border humanitarian assistance to Syrians, but in the end Moscow will decide.
The West’s stake in Syria will increase
The Ukraine war increases the West’s stake in Syria. Abandoning its anti-regime fight there would raise serious doubts about American and European resolve to continue support for Ukraine. Credibility isn’t everything, but it is something. The Biden administration had already tacitly recommitted the US to its continuing presence in northeast Syria supporting the Kurds and allied Arabs, if only to avoid a second Afghanistan debacle and to continue the counter-terrorism fight.
Net net
Syria has not been going anywhere anyway. The UN-sponsored constitutional talks are stalled, humanitarian relief is falling short, terrorism threats are growing, and accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity is limited for now to gathering of documentation and the German courts. Russian weakness, Iranian strength, and Western resolve are going to make things harder, not easier.
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Doubling down will make things worse
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan. Kyiv is not yet captured. Russian losses are substantial. Russian air power and logistics have been ineffectual. A war that Moscow imagined would be an easy walk has turned into a hard slog.
Both the Russians and the internationals are doubling down
Still Putin has no reason to abandon the effort. Kharkiv is all but surrounded. A long military convoy is close to Kiev. The Russians have made progress in the south. Putin will double down, throwing more military resources into the fight. The Russian Army has started to launch artillery shells into civilian areas. That will enhance the flow of refugees and displaced people, complicating the Ukrainians’ responsibilities. Russia hasn’t yet exhausted his its cyber capacities. It could still turn out the lights and the cell phones. Moscow could also strike outside Ukraine. Georgia and Moldova are vulnerable to Russian forces. Or worse: the Russians could strike the Baltics or Poland, bringing NATO into the war.
Ukrainian capacity to double down is limited, but NATO and partner countries are a force multiplier even if not yet belligerents. The sanctions adopted go much further than anyone anticipated. Central banks have blocked Russian access to most of its own reserves in foreign currency. International financial transactions are getting to be impossible. Technology controls will take longer to bite, but bite they will. Weapons and ammunition are flowing rapidly into Ukraine from its supporters, now including Germany.
How can this end?
Sooner or later, this war will end. What are the possible scenarios?
- A Russian military victory in a week or two, without much further destruction. This now seems unlikely, if only because the Ukrainians are determined to fight on. Russia would still have its hands full pacifying the country. It will meet passive and active resistance at every turn. Sanctions will remain in place, wrecking the Russian economy. Russia will be forced to rely on China to evade them.
- Months of siege warfare, with a lot of destruction. If the Ukrainians can hold out, Moscow will also persist, causing massive damage in Kiev, Kharkiv, and other cities. Eventually a Russian puppet government will be installed. Sanctions will remain in place, not only wrecking the Russian economy but also making required reconstruction in Ukraine impossible. Russian reliance on China will be even greater. Again, the Russians will face passive and active resistance.
- A coup in Moscow. Putin’s oligarchs are already jumping ship. His Defense Minister and Chief of Staff looked noticeably unhappy meeting when he ordered them to put Russia’s nuclear weapons on alert (video above). Coups in the aftermath of military setbacks have happened before in Russia. It could happen again, though it would not necessarily bring to power someone who wants to change Moscow’s autocratic direction.
- A popular revolt in Russia. This is perhaps Putin’s greatest fear. The anti-war demonstrators in Russia have numbered in the thousands so far. If the war continues, they could start numbering in the tens and hundreds of thousands. Putin did little to prepare the Russians for killing Ukrainians, presumably because he thought the Ukrainians would fold easily. His disinformation machine is now working overtime, but it is late in the game.
Yes, I would favor this fourth outcome. Popular revolts have a clear record of producing faster and more democratic outcomes. But they require a degree of commitment and planning that hasn’t yet been evident in Russia.
A fifth scenario
It is also possible the Ukrainians, and democracy, will win. This is an even lower probability than a quick Russian victory. But it could happen. The Russians would withdraw and pay reparations, as Iraq has done to Kuwait. The West would provide massive assistance for reconstruction. The EU would begin a serious accession negotiation. Ukraine would crack down on corruption, attact foreign investment, and begin to catch up economically with Poland and Hungary. Russians would notice and insist on their own democratic regime.
Yes, doubling down is going to make things worse, but we can always dream.
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Stevenson’s army, March 1
We need to keep asking that question and not just ride the wave of news. There’s good news: Fred Kaplan notes Russian military problems.
– Russia’s cyber capabilities haven’t been used much, or aren’t effective.
– Though NYT says tech defenses have been good.
But the portents are grim: Russia may double down and resort to massive, destructive attacks on the cities, says WaPo. NYT says the same. NBC reports Putin’s anger.
Axios reminds us, Putin needs an off ramp. Dan Drezner sees no clear goal for the sanctions besides punishment.
Meanwhile, Biden administration courts Taiwan with former officials’ delegation. And despite slim majorities, Biden’s success rate in Congress was high last year.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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