Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort

Russians are going to be a lot better off if their army fails in Ukraine than if it succeeds. Ukrainians as well. President Putin by contrast thinks he cannot survive failure. He is likely right. The invasion he thought would enable absorption of Ukraine and Belarus into an enlarged Russian Federation is a strategic failure. Most Ukrainians and Russians don’t want it. Putin may declare it, but reality will deny it.

The situation on the ground

That however makes little difference right now. The Russian army has overtaken, if not entirely taken, Kherson, near Ukraine’s southern coast. Kharkiv is under bombardment, as is Kyiv. The Russians are planning to surround both and demand surrender. Failing that, they will obliterate parts of these two largest cities in Ukraine. The picture is not good:

Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is still strong but faces overwhelming force. My guess is Putin will have to use it, making an eventual occupation even more difficult than it might otherwise have been.

The situation in the world

The international effort in support of Ukraine is going far better than the war. Sanctions have already begun to bite. The ruble is down. Interest rates are up. Russian hard currency reserves are mostly frozen. International companies are moving out. Russians may not yet have understood the consequences, but their standard of living is going to collapse.

Almost a million Ukrainians have fled, mostly to neighboring countries. The EU so far is welcoming them. The logistics of handling the crowds at the border are however daunting. Housing, feeding, and providing education and healthcare for the mainly women and children refugees will be more than daunting.

The situation in Russia

Russians have demonstrated against the war. Opposition leader Alexey Navalny has appealed on Twitter from his prison cell for more protests. How Russians react will be pivotal. If they blame Putin for their economic troubles and turn out by the millions in peaceful demonstrations, Ukraine might be saved sooner rather than later from Moscow’s designs. If the Russians blame the West and fail to demand withdrawal from Ukraine, Putin will be able to survive, at least for now.

Things will get harder

The West has proven remarkably unified and forceful in its reaction to Russian aggression. It won’t be easy to keep it that way. Europe is solid, because the threat is clear and immediate. The Americans so far are solid too, but higher gasoline prices and a slowed recovery could put Biden in a bind before the November election. The coordinated drawdown of petroleum reserves , in which 31 countries participated, was the right thing to do. But it did not have the immediate effect desired. Oil everywhere and natural gas prices in Europe are still spiking.

None of that changes the strategic picture. Putin has lost. The ambition to absorb Ukraine into a new Russian empire is unachievable. But the Ukrainians are also losing. Their country faces destruction, occupation, and repression. Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort.