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Timing matters, but no one has a good clock

While Russian forces in Ukraine continue to advance, the invasion is moving slower than Moscow wanted. Internatioinal sanctions are just beginning to bite. The question now is how long it will take for Russians to realize that they need to get rid of President Putin.

Ukrainian resistance is strong, but the Russian forces are overwhelming

The Ukrainians are fighting hard. Their mobile and agile territorial defense is doing a lot of damage to the heavily armed but slow-moving and much less agile Russian forces. Moscow has admitted to losing 500 soldiers. Likely the number is far greater. Russian media are still portraying the war a “special military activity” at the invitation of the secessionist “republics” of Luhansk and Donestk rather than as an full-scale, unprovoked invasion. Most Russians will understand that it is risky to say anything else.

Even heroic resistance cannot immediately overcome overwhelming force. The Russian army is now shelling population centers, targeting civilian institutions, and seizing nuclear power plants. Yesterday’s firefight and fire at the largest concentration of nuclear plants in Europe suggests how little the Russian army cares about imperiling millions of people.

International sanctions are also strong, but their full impact will not be immediate

The US and EU have imposed unprecedented sanctions intended to cripple Russia’s economy. Some consequences are immediate: interest rates have spiked in Russia, the ruble has tanked, and the stock market is closed to avoid catastrophic losses. Russians are unable to withdraw money from banks while prices have skyrocketed. Foreign investors are fleeing. Foreign airlines are shut down. Many local airlines flying Boeings and Airbuses will be unable to get spare parts, making travel even within Russia (which spans 11 time zones) problematic.

While some of the effects of sanctions are apparent right away, many others will take time to manifest. Within a year or so, Russians will lose a big slice of their real incomes. The Russian government, which depends heavily on oil and natural gas revenues, will be straitened. Even in the current tight oil market, buyers are refusing to purchase Russian products, which are selling at a 20% discount. Russian foreign currency reserves were massive before the invasion, but about half are now frozen. It will take time to exhaust the rest.

Ukraine’s fate depends on how quickly people in Russia react

The key variable is how quickly Russians react. The oligarchs are already feeling the pinch, but Putin has them on a short leash. The usual elite Russian coup is unlikely. Demonstrations in Russia have so far attracted thousands and perhaps tens of thousands, most of whom are the usual suspects. Academic scholarship suggests that mobilizing on a sustained basis about 3.5% of the population will bring results (but there are exceptions in both directions):

That would mean about 5 million people, or at least ten times the number mobilized so far. Some would not be the usual suspects, who don’t number that many.

Putin will do what he can to prevent that from happening. Popular protest is his worst nightmare. The war in Ukraine not only portends a long insurgency and ferocious occupation but also an end to anything resembling free speech and association inside Russia. Its “democracy,” imperfect as it was, will become a full-fledged draconian autocracy.

Timing matters

The damage Putin will do depends then on timing. If something like those 5 million Russians get to the streets soon, we could see an abrupt reversal of Ukraine’s fate. But if they don’t, Ukraine will become Putin’s laboratory for how to subjugate a population of more than 40 million, most of whom want to live in Europe rather than a newly constructed Russian empire. There is no telling when or if the protests in Russia will reach critical mass. Timing matters, but no one has a good clock.