Russia has nothing to gain in Ukraine

It’s been a month. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has done an immense amount of damage. The Russians have destroyed tens of thousands of homes and uncounted infrastructure. They have targeted hospitals, schools, and shelters, killing we know not how many thousands. The war has displaced more about 15% of the 44 million population. Few are fleeing voluntarily east into Russia and Russian-controlled territories. Many are Russian speakers from the eastern part of the country, where the Russians have besieged and are bombarding Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other cities they thought would welcome them.

No one is winning but the Ukrainians have gained something

The Ukrainians have met the Russian Army with ferocious resistance, mostly in small units armed with anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons. NATO is guesstimating that the Ukrainian Army and its rag-tag, hastily assembled territorial defense has killed as many as 7-15,000 Russian troops. The Ukrainians have destroyed hundreds of tanks, other armored vehicles, helicopters, and aircraft. They have targeted Russian supply lines, with devastating effect on the Russians’ ability to maneuver.

No one is winning. For the moment at least, the military situation is stalemated. But the Ukrainians have gained a great deal in terms of national pride and commitment to deciding their own fate. The Russians have lost morale and will to fight. If Moscow is successful in occupying Ukraine, it will lose even more. It will need many more troops and a lot of money to pacify Ukraine. No Russian soldier will be safe on the streets there. It will be worse than Baghdad for the Americans in 2006, when the Sunni insurgency peaked.

The way out

The best way out of this horrendous war is Russian retreat. Having failed to take Kyiv quickly, the Russians should extract themselves from the sunk cost fallacy as soon as possible. They could probably hold on to the parts of Donbas they already occupied before February 24 and to Crimea, at least for now. But negotiating the end of sanctions will require that they give up even those easy conquests.

The West should of course be willing not only to listen to Russian security concerns but also to respond constructively to them, despite Moscow’s dreadful behavior. If the Russians want Ukraine not to host NATO missiles, that should be a possible compromise, provided the Russians are prepared to move their own missiles back from Ukraine’s borders. If the Russians want Ukraine’s armed forces limited in number or capacity, that too could be the subject of a compromise, provided Russia is willing to do likewise.

But none of that will work with Putin

Putin has made himself clear: Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign and independent state. He will never accept reciprocity. He is trying to establish the “Russian world,” Greater Russia in other words. This is an explicitly imperial and imperialist objective. Only an autocracy that rules both Russia and Ukraine (as well as Belarus) can impose it. The crackdown on dissent in Moscow is a clear signal of more to come.

Ukraine’s fate will not be decided only on its battlefields. It will also be decided in Moscow, where Russians who oppose this war need to do something about Putin. Some courageous Russians have taken to the streets, but not near enough to change the regime. It’s either that or Putin’s defeated army commanders need to fix the problem at its origin. Russia no longer has nothing to gain in Ukraine.