This man should not remain in power
I’m enjoying the tempest over President Biden’s remark about Putin, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Some argue the context was Ukraine, not Russia, so Biden wasn’t advocating regime change. That’s what the White House is claiming. Others, like me, recognize that Biden was speaking truth to power. Ukraine will never be safe so long as Putin is in the Kremlin. If we want an end to the horrific violence he is perpetrating, he has to go.
Not my job
I hasten to add that removing Putin is not an American responsibility. The Russian generals who yesterday announced they were moving the goal posts and defining down Russia’s war aims should not stop there. They should be asking who is responsible for the destruction of the Russian Army. Ill-provisioned and ill-led, it is now recruiting mercenaries in the Middle East and buying weapons wherever it can get them. No army worth its name should be doing that thirty days into a war it initiated.
Russia’s citizens should also be asking themselves what happened and why. The majority never supported the war in Ukraine so far as we can tell, but they would presumably have rejoiced at victory. That is no longer in the cards. Most Russians may not know it yet, because Putin’s yes-men are tightly controlling the media. It will take some time to sink in, but Russians will soon understand that instead of greater glory their sacrifices have brought humiliating defeat and devastating economic sanctions.
No comfort to the Ukrainians
That is no comfort to Ukraine’s citizens, who have already suffered massive human and physical destruction. The number killed is unknown, but it has to be in the tens of thousands. The Russians have destroyed thousands of apartments and work places. More than 15% of the country is internally displaced and another 15% has fled the country. This is, proportionately, a disaster like Syria’s, but perpetrated in a month. And Ukraine is much larger in population than Syria.
The big question is how long the Ukrainians can hold out. If they are close to the end, the best they can hope for is a Russian retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and other major population centers. That will give the Russians the forces they need to capture Mariupol in the south and enlarge their holdings in Luhansk and Donetsk. If, however, the Ukrainians can sustain their effort the Russians might do well to escape to their former holdings in Donbas and Crimea.
The shape of the table
Either way, the time is likely not far off that negotiations will begin in earnest. Moscow and Kyiv have been talking with each other directly on and off for the past month. But those talks have not been about the main issues but rather about humanitarian corridors and the like. At a higher level, it is said that Israeli Prime Minister Bennett is mediating. Sometimes Turkish President Erdogan claims that role. French President Macron likes to insert himself. But Ukraine’s President Zelensky has it right: peace will come when he and Putin meet. There is little prospect that either will welcome an intermediary for the real bargain-making.
So the table will be just two-sided, with Putin representing the interests of the Donbas Russian-speakers and Zelensky carrying the burden not only of the Ukrainians but also the Western neighbors and friends of Ukraine. He will be under enormous pressure to agree sooner rather than later, so as to stop the carnage. But he has proven beyond doubt that he seeks to protect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Ukraine. He is not inclined to buy half a loaf.
Zelensky knows what Biden said is unfortunately untrue: Putin can remain in power as long as Russians allow it. There is a world of difference between “cannot” and “should not.”
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Biden’s gut meaning was clear, and correct.
It’s not too soon to think about how to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction. The head of the Ukrainian central bank on 10 March suggested where to find at least a down payment of $300 billion or so — use the sovereign Russian assets frozen by the West as reparations.