Month: March 2022
Stevenson’s army, March 26
– Russia revises its war plan, it says.
– NYT says Russia is tripling its mercenaries in Ukraine.
– NYT on historic meeting between Israelis and Arabs.
– Former Senator and Navy Secretary Jim Webb says retired Marine generals question commandant’s plans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Russians are moving the goal posts
Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva), FT’s Russia correspondent, summarized the Russian military briefing today on Twitter:
Russia’s military held a big briefing this afternoon, announcing the war was entering a ‘second phase’. Here’s a summary of how Russia, at this point in the war, is depicting what it set out to do, why, and where we’re at. (relaying their words, pls don’t shoot msnger). It had two options: fight a war in the east, but allow Kyiv to replenish its forces, or start off by knocking out Ukrainian military capacities across the country.
Over a month of war, Russia has knocked out most of Ukraine’s military capacities, the generals claimed, so can now move on to next phase, which will only be focused on the east, which could involve heavy bombardment. Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said – these are not setbacks in other words, it’s all part of the plan.
And the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/Luhansk made territorial gains in the east. Numerous statements made about not targeting civilian infrastructure, avoiding civilian casualties. Defence ministry briefing also shared a new official figure for the number of Russian soldiers killed, the second statement by Russian side during the course of this war. Said 1,351 were killed – figure is far below Ukrainian and international estimates.
The link she provided for the Russians own account does not work for me, so I am not citing it.
That would have made sense
The strategy the Russian briefing provided would have made sense. It was more or less what I expected them to do: focus on the south and east, but threaten Kyiv as a diversionary tactic. But it is not what they did. They failed to knock out most of Ukraine’s military capacity and tried to take Kharkiv and Kyiv, in addition to Kherson and Mariupol in the south. They are now restating their military objectives to align better with what they think they might achieve.
Good news for the Ukrainians
If this briefing betokens an end to the sieges of Kiev and Kharkiv, it is good news for the Ukraianians. Even if the Kremlin continues its long-range bombardment of those cities, how hard will its ill-provisioned soldiers fight after learning that their efforts are diversionary? The Russian briefing is confirmation that Ukraine has successfully defended its capital and its second largest city. That would be cause for celebration if its third largest, Odesa, were not still at risk.
The fight in the south is still ferocious
So far, the Ukrainian defense has blocked the Russian westward advanced towards Ukraine’s third largest city and vital port. The Russians have focused much of their bombardment on Mariupol, which sits on the route from the areas Moscow already controls in the east and Crimea. There won’t be much of Mariupol left once the Russians either succeed or fail, but for now it is holding on. That’s important. There can be no Russian claim of victory if they don’t get a land route to Crimea (in addition to the bridge they have already built over the Kerch Strait from mainland Russia).
But it’s not over until the puffy guy sings
Putin will continue to aim for something he can call success. He’ll not only want the land route to Crimea but also recognition (or at least acceptance) of the “independence” of Donestk and Luhansk as well Ukrainian “neutrality.” The Ukrainians don’t want to do any of that. Nor do they seem to be aiming to throw the Russians out of Crimea and Donbas, but they’ll want to keep that option open for the future. If the West is willing to maintain its punishing sanctions, those hopes might be justified.
Putin is facing a difficult choice. He can continue the bombardment of Kyiv and Kharkiv as well as the brutal southern campaign, hoping for a breakthrough to Odesa. Or he can try to negotiate a ceasefire in place that would enable him to resupply and refresh his forces. This war won’t be over until we hear from him. The Russians are moving the goal posts, but we don’t yet know how far.
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Stevenson’s army, March 25
– In FT, Edward Luce notes much less support for US and Ukraine outside Europe.
– Watch this amazing video and audio report by NYT on Russian operations early in the war.
– WSJ says Biden won’t adopt “sole purpose” terminology for nukes.
– Leaked document says China close to deal to put troops in Solomon Islands.
– BBC says Russian news dropped “victory” report.
– Elliot Ackerman talks to foreign fighters in Ukraine.
– NYT says US intelligence was wrong about Afghan and Ukraine wars.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 24
– Remembering Madeleine Albright, first female secretary of state, whom I first knew when she worked for Sen. Muskie and on whose Policy Planning Staff I was privileged to serve.
– NYT says NSC set up Tiger Team to game responses to Ukraine.
– Politico details arms from many countries to Ukraine.
– Bill Arkin explains Russian air operations in Ukraine.
– Task & Purpose says CIA agents were in Iraq before US invasion.
– Paul PIllar says Revolutionary Guard doesn’t belong on terrorist list.
– AIPAC supports election deniers.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Russia has nothing to gain in Ukraine
It’s been a month. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has done an immense amount of damage. The Russians have destroyed tens of thousands of homes and uncounted infrastructure. They have targeted hospitals, schools, and shelters, killing we know not how many thousands. The war has displaced more about 15% of the 44 million population. Few are fleeing voluntarily east into Russia and Russian-controlled territories. Many are Russian speakers from the eastern part of the country, where the Russians have besieged and are bombarding Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other cities they thought would welcome them.
No one is winning but the Ukrainians have gained something
The Ukrainians have met the Russian Army with ferocious resistance, mostly in small units armed with anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons. NATO is guesstimating that the Ukrainian Army and its rag-tag, hastily assembled territorial defense has killed as many as 7-15,000 Russian troops. The Ukrainians have destroyed hundreds of tanks, other armored vehicles, helicopters, and aircraft. They have targeted Russian supply lines, with devastating effect on the Russians’ ability to maneuver.
No one is winning. For the moment at least, the military situation is stalemated. But the Ukrainians have gained a great deal in terms of national pride and commitment to deciding their own fate. The Russians have lost morale and will to fight. If Moscow is successful in occupying Ukraine, it will lose even more. It will need many more troops and a lot of money to pacify Ukraine. No Russian soldier will be safe on the streets there. It will be worse than Baghdad for the Americans in 2006, when the Sunni insurgency peaked.
The way out
The best way out of this horrendous war is Russian retreat. Having failed to take Kyiv quickly, the Russians should extract themselves from the sunk cost fallacy as soon as possible. They could probably hold on to the parts of Donbas they already occupied before February 24 and to Crimea, at least for now. But negotiating the end of sanctions will require that they give up even those easy conquests.
The West should of course be willing not only to listen to Russian security concerns but also to respond constructively to them, despite Moscow’s dreadful behavior. If the Russians want Ukraine not to host NATO missiles, that should be a possible compromise, provided the Russians are prepared to move their own missiles back from Ukraine’s borders. If the Russians want Ukraine’s armed forces limited in number or capacity, that too could be the subject of a compromise, provided Russia is willing to do likewise.
But none of that will work with Putin
Putin has made himself clear: Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign and independent state. He will never accept reciprocity. He is trying to establish the “Russian world,” Greater Russia in other words. This is an explicitly imperial and imperialist objective. Only an autocracy that rules both Russia and Ukraine (as well as Belarus) can impose it. The crackdown on dissent in Moscow is a clear signal of more to come.
Ukraine’s fate will not be decided only on its battlefields. It will also be decided in Moscow, where Russians who oppose this war need to do something about Putin. Some courageous Russians have taken to the streets, but not near enough to change the regime. It’s either that or Putin’s defeated army commanders need to fix the problem at its origin. Russia no longer has nothing to gain in Ukraine.
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Madeleine was no madeleine
The French tarts are spongy and sweet. That would not describe Madeleine Albright. The first woman to serve as Secretary of State, in my experience she was remarkably similar in public and private. A bit stern but clear and forceful, she would push hard for her perspective on world issues.
Some liked her, some didn’t
Those who agreed with her were pleased. Ask any Albanian in Kosovo, where a bust of her stands in the center of Pristina. Those who disagreed found her flinty. Boutros-Boutros Ghali, the Secretary General of the UN whose second term she vetoed in the Security Council, no doubt thought her unreasonable and inflexible. She strived to be tough but fair. She mostly succeeded.
My interactions with her in recent years were limited but positive. I was in Pristina when the Kosovars dedicated her bust a few years ago. Parading in the main street with Bill Clinton, the Kosovars gave her lots of applause. But she attracted far less attention than the much taller former President, whose statue in Pristina is full-length.
I testified with her in December 2020 at the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. She was as sharp and clear as always, pushing hard for democracy and human rights in the Balkans. Generous to and engaged with students, she spent an hour with my SAIS class studying relations between Belgrade and Pristina. She spent childhood years with her diplomat father in Belgrade. But because of the 1999 NATO bombing, Serbs mostly dislike her.
I also ran into her at a dentist’s office, but she was uncoiffed, so I thought it best to steer clear and avoid embarassment. I think I got that right.
Her brand
Wherever you are in the world, Madeleine’s name is instantly recognized. This is unusual. There are lots of people named Madeleine. To me, in person she was always Madame Secretary. But everyone in the State Department called her Madeleine when she wasn’t present. She was unique. She projected a clear and compelling image wherever she went. Straightforward and determined, she didn’t waffle or prevaricate. She told you what she wanted and pursued it, with skill and finesse but no hesitation. “Madeleine” was a well-defined brand.
Tony Blinken uses the same approach, though a bit more understated. After the years of Trump’s wild exaggerations and outright lies, clarity and care has returned to high-level statements on foreign policy. The hyperbole and prevarication of Trump’s incompetent Secretaries of State are gone. You may not like what the incumbent says. But you know he isn’t exaggerating and intends to be clear and compelling, not emotional and ambiguous.
This is not the unipolar moment
Madeleine was Secretary of State during the unipolar moment. The United States she adopted as her motherland could do anything it wanted in the world. The Soviet Union was gone. Russia was a basket case. China was not yet an economic powerhouse. Iran and North Korea were relatively small clouds on the horizon. That has changed, dramatically. Russia, Iran, and North Korea are serious regional challengers. China is a serious global challenger. Madeleine has left us at a difficult moment.
We would be wise however to remember what she stood for. A determined liberal democrat committed to human rights, she believed the United States had a unique role and responsibility: to defend a world order based on those rights. A refugee from the Nazis, she disdained autocrats and supported their victims. She sought a peaceful world in which freedom could thrive.
She represented the best of us. May her memory be a blessing,
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