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Russia’s aggression won’t help Kosovo

Colleagues I respect think I got it wrong. Earlier this week I doubted Serbian President Vucic was prepared to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti. So I thought I would consider the arguments.

What my critics argue

My critics think Vucic is not so hard over, in current circumstances. They argue that his patron, Vladimir Putin, is in trouble both in Ukraine and Russia. Moscow has even compared the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donestk to Kosovo. This implies that the Russians might accept Kosovo’s secession if the West accepts the declarations of independence of the Ukrainian provinces. Belgrade fears Russia might cut a deal at Serbia’s expense. So Vucic needs the West more than ever. He might even accept Kosovo’s sovereignty and independence in exchange for a vaguely defined Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. Pristina agreed to that in 2013, but current Prime Minister Kurti has ruled it out.

It doesn’t make sense

I admit the Belgrade tabloids are showing a lot of concern about the shakiness of Russia’s support for Serbia’s claim of sovereignty over Kosovo. But still, the argument doesn’t really make sense to me.

If Belgrade is concerned about the Russians maintaining their veto over Kosovo UN membership, they can readily look to China. Beijing has been providing a lot of financing and military hardware to Belgrade lately. The Chinese also oppose Kosovo independence, because of the implications for Taiwan. It wouldn’t make sense for Vucic to turn to the West, which will surely insist on recognition of Kosovo’s sovereignty and independence while China won’t.

Besides, for Belgrade the important precedent is Russia’s seizure of territory where ethnic Russians live. That could be used, if Moscow wins in Ukraine, as a precedent for Serbia’s seizure of northern Kosovo. Or at least formation of a “Serb Republic of Northern Kosovo” that declares independence and accepts Russian peacekeepers on the northerns side of the Ibar River.

Can the Americans intervene decisively?

My critics also argue this is a good moment for America to put forward a plan Vucic cannot refuse. Could the Americans intervene decisively with Serbia to force recognition of the Republic of Kosovo? I doubt it. So far, the Biden Administration has shown little inclination to do more than return to past, pre-Trump US policy, which was supportive of the EU-sponsored normalization dialogue.

The Americans have also turned favorable to the Belgrade-Tirana proposal for Open Balkans, which is still an ill-defined slogan for increasing intra-Balkans trade more than a clear plan to resolve outstanding issues. Balkan leaders have discussed trade issues ad infinitum in the German-sponsored Berlin process as well as in CEFTA (the Central European Free Trade Agreement). The EU and US are pressing Kosovo hard to join Open Balkans. But alas, Belgrade and Tirana have never sent a formal invitation to Pristina. They can’t agree on how to address it. That does not augur well.

Nor does American pre-occupation with Ukraine and its ramifications. Kosovo has supported Ukraine, but Serbia has not. Washington will fear that any move towards Kosovo independence will drive Serbia in the wrong direction. That is the advantage of Vucic’s “two stools” strategy. He can always sit on the other one.

First to applaud

I’ll be the first to give a standing ovation to whoever is able to get Serbia to recognize Kosovo within its present borders and in harmony with its current constitution. But I don’t think Ukraine is helping. To the contrary: Russia’s launch of an irredentist war of aggression bodes ill for stability in the Balkans.