Month: May 2022
Stevenson’s army, May 14
– Erdogan signals opposition to NATO membership for FInland and Sweden, which requires unanimity.
– CNN says IC is reviewing failure — except by State’s INR — to foresee strength of Ukrainian resistance.
– WaPo says US may have violated promise against 3d country transfer of Russian aircraft.
– WSJ says US has cut some Syria sanctions.
– Macron wants Zelensky to make concessions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenon’s army, May 13
I just finished former SecDef Mark Esper’s memoir, A Sacred Oath. It’s a good, informative book about his service as Secretary. Unlike many such books, he spends little time on his life before the Pentagon, then tells revealing stories about fighting the bureaucracy, fighting the NSC staff, and, of course, pushing back on Pres. Trump’s crazy ideas. The Trump stories are scattered chronologically, showing what a constant problem he faced.
– Ukraine aid stalled by Sen. Paul’s objection.
– Sweden moves closer to NATO membership.
– Something happened to a secret Navy ship.
– WOTR has good ideas on building a cyber force.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Russia’s aggression won’t help Kosovo
Colleagues I respect think I got it wrong. Earlier this week I doubted Serbian President Vucic was prepared to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti. So I thought I would consider the arguments.
What my critics argue
My critics think Vucic is not so hard over, in current circumstances. They argue that his patron, Vladimir Putin, is in trouble both in Ukraine and Russia. Moscow has even compared the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donestk to Kosovo. This implies that the Russians might accept Kosovo’s secession if the West accepts the declarations of independence of the Ukrainian provinces. Belgrade fears Russia might cut a deal at Serbia’s expense. So Vucic needs the West more than ever. He might even accept Kosovo’s sovereignty and independence in exchange for a vaguely defined Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. Pristina agreed to that in 2013, but current Prime Minister Kurti has ruled it out.
It doesn’t make sense
I admit the Belgrade tabloids are showing a lot of concern about the shakiness of Russia’s support for Serbia’s claim of sovereignty over Kosovo. But still, the argument doesn’t really make sense to me.
If Belgrade is concerned about the Russians maintaining their veto over Kosovo UN membership, they can readily look to China. Beijing has been providing a lot of financing and military hardware to Belgrade lately. The Chinese also oppose Kosovo independence, because of the implications for Taiwan. It wouldn’t make sense for Vucic to turn to the West, which will surely insist on recognition of Kosovo’s sovereignty and independence while China won’t.
Besides, for Belgrade the important precedent is Russia’s seizure of territory where ethnic Russians live. That could be used, if Moscow wins in Ukraine, as a precedent for Serbia’s seizure of northern Kosovo. Or at least formation of a “Serb Republic of Northern Kosovo” that declares independence and accepts Russian peacekeepers on the northerns side of the Ibar River.
Can the Americans intervene decisively?
My critics also argue this is a good moment for America to put forward a plan Vucic cannot refuse. Could the Americans intervene decisively with Serbia to force recognition of the Republic of Kosovo? I doubt it. So far, the Biden Administration has shown little inclination to do more than return to past, pre-Trump US policy, which was supportive of the EU-sponsored normalization dialogue.
The Americans have also turned favorable to the Belgrade-Tirana proposal for Open Balkans, which is still an ill-defined slogan for increasing intra-Balkans trade more than a clear plan to resolve outstanding issues. Balkan leaders have discussed trade issues ad infinitum in the German-sponsored Berlin process as well as in CEFTA (the Central European Free Trade Agreement). The EU and US are pressing Kosovo hard to join Open Balkans. But alas, Belgrade and Tirana have never sent a formal invitation to Pristina. They can’t agree on how to address it. That does not augur well.
Nor does American pre-occupation with Ukraine and its ramifications. Kosovo has supported Ukraine, but Serbia has not. Washington will fear that any move towards Kosovo independence will drive Serbia in the wrong direction. That is the advantage of Vucic’s “two stools” strategy. He can always sit on the other one.
First to applaud
I’ll be the first to give a standing ovation to whoever is able to get Serbia to recognize Kosovo within its present borders and in harmony with its current constitution. But I don’t think Ukraine is helping. To the contrary: Russia’s launch of an irredentist war of aggression bodes ill for stability in the Balkans.
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Stevenson’s army, May 12
– Russia sees that as a threat.
– Task & Purpose says Russia isn’t good at info war.
– 57 GOP voted against Ukraine aid in House.
-WaPo reports limits on intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 11
– Costa Rica is suffering from a ransomware attack.
– FP says Marcos is no Duterte on foreign policy
– Politico reports US arms advice to Taiwan.
– David Ignatius sees peace progress in Armenia.
– DNI testified in open session.
– GOP candidates fight over China.
– EU can’t get Hungary to agree on sanctions.
– NYT notes Russia has captured most of east.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Maybe smaller is better, for now
I’ve been getting questions lately about the EU-sponsored dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. Will it restart in earnest? Is it just moribund or stone cold dead?
Certainly it has been unproductive. We are approaching the 10th year since the Brussels “political” agreement of 2013. A decade of stasis in the Balkans risks unraveling regional peace and stability. Just listen to Dugin:
So is there hope for progress?
The moment is not propitious. Serbia has aligned itself with Russia, not only on Ukraine, and the Serb-ruled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina is Moscow’s lap dog, as Dugin makes clear. The US, UK, and the European Union are preoccupied with helping the Ukrainians respond to Russian aggression. The Balkan region is way down the list of urgencies.
Besides, the 2022 and 2024 US elections will soon focus American attention on domestic issues. Everyone in the Balkans will be holding their breath to see if Donald Trump has a real chance of returning to the White House. If it looks good for him, Serbia will want to continue to pause the dialogue with Kosovo, as Trump was sympathetic to Belgrade’s territorial ambitions. If Pristina wants anything from the dialogue, it needs to get it soon.
Acknowledgement of abuses may be a non-starter
Listening to both Kosovo President Osmani and Prime Minister Kurti’s public statements, my sense is that they would both like Serbian President Vucic to acknowledge the abuses of the Milosevic regime in Kosovo in the 1990s. Vucic, who served in that regime, has been unwilling, both in public and in private. He suffers from a severe case of amnesia and “bothsideism.” Kurti, who spent time reading Sartre in a Serbian prison during the 1999 war, remembers well. Neither has a domestic political constituency that yearns for an agreement.
But Vucic’s acknowledgement of the Serbian effort to ethnically cleanse Albanians from Kosovo and of the thousands of rapes by Serbian forces would open the way to improved cooperation, as exhorted in the 2010 General Assembly resolution that launched the dialogue. Kurti would need to acknowledge Albanian abuses against Serbs and Roma, even if much smaller in number. Such acknowledgements would need to be coupled with as full accounting for missing people by both governments as possible. That would clear the way for exchange of bodies and provision for appropriate memorialization in both countries.
License plates should be easier
There should be room to resolve the issue that caused a brouhaha last fall: mutual acceptance of license plates. So far negotiations for a permanent solution have failed, due to Serbia’s refusal to allow Kosovo plates to enter the country with indications of where they originate. The current practice–covering state symbols on both Kosovo and Serbian plates before allowing entry–is a modest improvement on Serbia’s prior requirement that Kosovo plates be replaced with Serbian ones, but it is still wasteful and juvenile.
Accepting license plates and Kosovo documents is not the same as recognizing Kosovo as a sovereign state. The five non-recognizing members of the EU accept lots of Kosovo documents and also maintain diplomatic representation in Pristina. Serbia should do likewise.
Electricity is harder
Pristina wants the Serbs in northern Kosovo to start paying for electricity, which a Kosovo entity has provided free since 1999. This is reasonable, but if Pristina insists Belgrade may supply the electricity from Serbia, further detaching the northern municipalities from Pristina’s governance, an important Serbian objective. As tens of millions of euros are at issue, this one won’t be easy to resolve on its own. A broader financial settlement may be possible.
Hedging and bandwagoning
While these issues eat away at mutual confidence, Serbia has been re-arming itself and deploying forces near and around Kosovo. Belgrade tells Washington Serbian cooperation with NATO is much deeper and more important than cooperation with Russia. But the Defense Ministry vaunts a historical maximum in defense cooperation with Russia, which has provided fighter jets and tanks as well as lots of other goodies. Vucic has increasingly aligned himself politically and militarily with Moscow and Beijing, not only on Ukraine. He claims non-alignment, but hedging is difficult in an era of geopolitical tension. He has tilted way over to the East. Dugin knows of what he speaks.
By contrast, Kosovo has no hedging option so bandwagons with NATO, which is still responsible for defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pristina’s army, which the US and UK mentor, is slated to be fully operational in 2027. It will be NATO compatible. A few of its soldiers have already deployed with the Americans. Kosovo quickly welcomed Afghan and now Ukrainian refugees, aligns solidly with sanctions on Russia, and is providing de-mining training to Ukrainians.
So the dialogue is not just between Kosovo and Serbia, but also between West and East. As Lenin put it: “show me who your friends are, and I will tell you what you are.”
Maybe smaller is better for now
The situation is not “ripe” for a big agreement. Before 2010, when the more political version was launched, the dialogue focused on small, “technical” issues like Kosovo’s international calling code, return of cultural artifacts, and mutual recognition of diplomas. Maybe it is time to go back to those–including missing persons and license plates. Another possibility is a regional negotiation of basic principles of mutual behavior, which are sorely lacking. Neither idea is as grand as “normalizing relations” or mutual recognition. But maybe smaller is better for now.
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