Day: June 7, 2022
Open Balkans is a dead letter
Colleague Ed Joseph tweeted an excellent reaction to Russian Foreign Minister’s endorsement of Open Balkans, which Belgrade and Tirana are advocating:
1/ Just as thanks go to #Putin for injecting life into @NATO, kudos to #SergeyLavrov for giving the kiss of death today to #OpenBalkan. This #Trump Administration brainchild advances the agenda of #Russia’s strategic partner in the region, #Serbia, under @avucic.
2/ #Russia’s main outlet in the country, Sputnik Serbia @rs_sputnik, has supported #OpenBalkans consistently. And why not?
3/ #OpenBalkan is open invitation for #Vucic to exploit #Serbia’s economic size for political advantage – free from political constraints or values of #EU. #OpenBalkan = ‘Serb World’ via the marketplace for Serbia’s smaller neighbors.
4/ Believing @avucic wants to join the #EU, US officials have bought into the notion that ‘#Trade Equals #Trust.’ What counts is the character of the regime you are trading with. Ask #Ukraine: up to 24 Feb, Russia has been a top trading partner of #Kyiv, for exports and imports.
5/ Ask #Japan, #SouthKorea or #Taiwan if trade has built trust with #China.
6/ Same story in the #Balkans. #Serbia is #Montenegro’s number one trading partner, for imports and exports – and #Belgrade is in last place in terms of trust. Montenegro PM’s recent endorsement of #OpenBalkan has exacerbated divisions in the country.
7/ Any polity in the #Balkans that faces direct threat from #Serbia is skeptical, if not suspicious of #OpenBalkan.
8/ As @EBRD has noted in its #Bosnia diagnostic, the core economic problems are political in nature. Just as #Putin has boosted @NATO, hopefully #Lavrov will boost the alternatives to #OpenBalkan that build a Regional Common Market on common #EU values.
My own reaction is less well put, in an interview for Kosovo’s RTV Dukagjini:
- What is your comment on the “Open Balkans”, do you think that Kosovo should be part of it?
A: The only circumstance in which Kosovo should even consider a proposition is if it is afforded equal status with the other sovereign states involved. That has not, I understand, been offered to Kosovo in Open Balkans, so the proposition should not even be considered.
2. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia has supported this initiative, what does this mean for the participating countries?
A: I think most of them will now have second thoughts about joining. Russia is not a welcome factor in the Balkans these days, with the exceptions of Serbia and Republika Srpska.
3. Do you think that such an initiative would be the right step for the Balkan countries?
A: Not really. Everything I’ve heard about Open Balkans suggests its activities could all be accomplished within the Berlin Process and SEFTA.
4. Do you think it is in the US interest if such an initiative is implemented?
A: I don’t but the US Government does. They get to call the shots.
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have said they will participate, does this mean that Kosovo is becoming isolated?
A: I’m not sure those positions will all be maintained. My guess is that under current circumstances, due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, Open Balkans is a dead letter.
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Stevenson’s army, June 7
– Swedish govt survived a no confidence vote after deal with Kurdish MP.
– WSJ has more on Erdogan.
– AMLO won’t attend this week’s summit.
– India may be part of the Quad, but Walter Russell Mead notes the many differences with US
– NYT notes troubles Ukrainians have learning new weapons.
– US is bombing al-Shabaab again. When the class talks abut Congress, I’ll want you to devise a new AUMF to handle this situation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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