Only one thing is for sure

The Congressional January 6 committee Thursday previewed its compelling case against Donald Trump. He not only incited the riot that day but helped plan multiple efforts to overthrow the constitutional order. The purpose was to enable Trump to stay in office, despite having lost the election. The committee is not mandated to assess criminal liability, but it left no doubt about Trump’s intentions and moral culpability.

Will it make a difference?

Sadly, none of this will make a difference. Trump’s supporters come in many varities, but precious few care about the facts or are open to argument. They support him no matter what. While pledging allegiance to the constitution, they have no compunction about shredding it. They know full well that there was no evidence of election fraud that would change the outcome. Their resistance to acknowledging the facts is the ultimate white privilege. The Trumpians think the people who voted for Biden, especially the minorities but also their fellow travelers, shouldn’t count, so Trump really won.

The fraud next time

The January 6 crowd was crude. The next effort to block a Democrat from the White House will be far more sophisticated. It will rely on gerrymandered state legislative and Congressional districts, secretaries of state and state legislatures in battleground states who jigger the election rules, Republican governors committed to unfree and unfair elections, and a Senate that overrepresents less populated parts of the country.

Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2024, for many reasons. His personal financial and legal troubles are overwhelming. He is physically decrepit. His candidacy would arouse a massive Democratic turnout. There are younger and more energetic pretenders ready to carry his mantle. An indictment in the middle of the campaign would be catastrophic for Republicans up and down the ticket. The big money that supports Trump will want someone else.

But Trumpism lives on

The main thing for all of Trump’s supporters is to keep his legacy alive. That means continuing his racist appeal, blocking government action on climate change, epidemics, and other public challenges, interfering with women’s and LGBTQ+ rights, blocking the advance of people of color and immigrants, stopping the teaching of real history and good literature, and lowering taxes for the wealthy. Trump is a reactionary, not a conservative. He has opposed virtually every inch of social progress in the 30 years or so prior to his election. Whoever the Republican candidate is in 2024 will need to continue his radical approach, with a cooler temperament. Read Youngkin or De Santis, or someone else of their more clever ilk.

The Democrats need unity

It is far less clear what the Democrats stand for, because their party is a big tent. Despite my personal preferences, the backlash against more liberal policies on policing is obvious, but on many Democrats still want to restrain the use of excessive force. Democrats generally favor more equity, less racial bias, stronger government action to set the rules of the economic game, and more social responsibility, but that leaves lots of room for important differences. The big tent enables a broader voter base, but it also hurts voter enthusiasm. Democrats need more unity, at least in what they oppose if not in what they favor.

The outcome is uncertain

I see lots of predictions that the Democrats will take a shellacking in 2022 in both the Senate and House races, perhaps losing control of both chambers. There is good reason to predict that outcome. It is the usual fate of incumbent presidents, current polling suggests it, Republicans have done their damndest to limit the right to vote, and relatively high inflation is making Americans blanche.

That said, it is still too early to be predicting the election outcome four months hence. A downturn in inflation, a Ukrainian victory against Russia, a real end to the epidemic, and half a dozen other factors could help the Democrats, or hurt them more. Only one thing is for sure: if you support the constitution, you shouldn’t be voting Republican.

Watch this, as I can’t get it to embed here: https://uw-media.usatoday.com/embed/video/7576089001?placement=snow-embed