Month: June 2022
Stevenson’s army, June 15, afternoon edition
– Half of the people in each party now predict US will “cease to be a democracy”
– European opinion dividing over Ukraine.
– Having overestimated Russian military capabilities, US intelligence now wonders whether it understands Chinese military.
– Xi reaffirms support for Putin.Defense
– Marine Major urges rethinking US military manpower system.
– And an Air Force colonel suggests seeking air denial rather than air supremacy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenon’s army, June 15
As President Kennedy said, “To govern is to choose.” NYT has a good piece summarizing the conflicting views on whether to cut Trump tariffs on Chinese goods as part of the fight against inflation.
Ukraine assessments: David Ignatius emphasizes Russia’s problems. Fred Kaplan notes Russian progress.
While senior officials discuss what more to ship to Ukraine, Politico notes the practical logistical shipping and training issues that slow things down regardless.
Remember that the NDAA is not necessary for DOD to do its job. The only legal effect if there were no NDAA is that military pay couldn’t rise faster than the regular government COLA rules. Sure enough, NDAA committees are seeking to enact a huge military pay raise.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 14
Charlie isn’t the only one distracted. I’ve been failing to post while vacationing with extended family in Asheville, NC. He writes today:
I haven’t forgotten you. I’ve been busy and the news isn’t very newsworthy. Mostly more of the same — in Ukraine, where Russian artillery is laying waste the land they want to seize; in NATO, where Turkey is still a roadblock to Sweden and Finland; in the Pacific, where US & China are trading angry words. At least in Congress, there’s the drama of the Jan. 6 hearings.
Some other items: Chaos in Iraqi politics.
– WSJ says some former Afghan officials are living the high life.
– WOTR gives good reasons not to ignore Africa.
– And SAIS Resident Fellow James Mann says a new book about the founder of the John Birch society has lessons for how the GOP might deal with Donald Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Only one thing is for sure
The Congressional January 6 committee Thursday previewed its compelling case against Donald Trump. He not only incited the riot that day but helped plan multiple efforts to overthrow the constitutional order. The purpose was to enable Trump to stay in office, despite having lost the election. The committee is not mandated to assess criminal liability, but it left no doubt about Trump’s intentions and moral culpability.
Will it make a difference?
Sadly, none of this will make a difference. Trump’s supporters come in many varities, but precious few care about the facts or are open to argument. They support him no matter what. While pledging allegiance to the constitution, they have no compunction about shredding it. They know full well that there was no evidence of election fraud that would change the outcome. Their resistance to acknowledging the facts is the ultimate white privilege. The Trumpians think the people who voted for Biden, especially the minorities but also their fellow travelers, shouldn’t count, so Trump really won.
The fraud next time
The January 6 crowd was crude. The next effort to block a Democrat from the White House will be far more sophisticated. It will rely on gerrymandered state legislative and Congressional districts, secretaries of state and state legislatures in battleground states who jigger the election rules, Republican governors committed to unfree and unfair elections, and a Senate that overrepresents less populated parts of the country.
Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2024, for many reasons. His personal financial and legal troubles are overwhelming. He is physically decrepit. His candidacy would arouse a massive Democratic turnout. There are younger and more energetic pretenders ready to carry his mantle. An indictment in the middle of the campaign would be catastrophic for Republicans up and down the ticket. The big money that supports Trump will want someone else.
But Trumpism lives on
The main thing for all of Trump’s supporters is to keep his legacy alive. That means continuing his racist appeal, blocking government action on climate change, epidemics, and other public challenges, interfering with women’s and LGBTQ+ rights, blocking the advance of people of color and immigrants, stopping the teaching of real history and good literature, and lowering taxes for the wealthy. Trump is a reactionary, not a conservative. He has opposed virtually every inch of social progress in the 30 years or so prior to his election. Whoever the Republican candidate is in 2024 will need to continue his radical approach, with a cooler temperament. Read Youngkin or De Santis, or someone else of their more clever ilk.
The Democrats need unity
It is far less clear what the Democrats stand for, because their party is a big tent. Despite my personal preferences, the backlash against more liberal policies on policing is obvious, but on many Democrats still want to restrain the use of excessive force. Democrats generally favor more equity, less racial bias, stronger government action to set the rules of the economic game, and more social responsibility, but that leaves lots of room for important differences. The big tent enables a broader voter base, but it also hurts voter enthusiasm. Democrats need more unity, at least in what they oppose if not in what they favor.
The outcome is uncertain
I see lots of predictions that the Democrats will take a shellacking in 2022 in both the Senate and House races, perhaps losing control of both chambers. There is good reason to predict that outcome. It is the usual fate of incumbent presidents, current polling suggests it, Republicans have done their damndest to limit the right to vote, and relatively high inflation is making Americans blanche.
That said, it is still too early to be predicting the election outcome four months hence. A downturn in inflation, a Ukrainian victory against Russia, a real end to the epidemic, and half a dozen other factors could help the Democrats, or hurt them more. Only one thing is for sure: if you support the constitution, you shouldn’t be voting Republican.
Watch this, as I can’t get it to embed here: https://uw-media.usatoday.com/embed/video/7576089001?placement=snow-embed
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Stevenson’s army, June 10
How many wars are in involved in today? Fifteen plus, according to the latest war powers report to Congress. The uncertainty comes because the report says” approximately 90,000 United States Armed Forces personnel are deployed to North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries in Europe” without naming the countries. The conflicts are basically the same as in recent reports: Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, Niger, Cuba [at Guantanamo], Philippines, Egypt, and Kosovo plus NATO. The law requires reporting of places where troops equipped for combat are deployed; there does not have to be active combat.
FP, citing an unnamed “senior defense official” on Gen. Milley’s plane to Singapore, says the US wants more hotlines with China to prevent miscalculations.
WSJ says Ukrainian forces are being outgunned.
Nicaragua welcomes Russian troops.
Writer in Foreign Affairs says China is “using the global South to constrain America.“
WSJ says US is trying to get Israel and Saudi Arabia to work together on air defenses against Iran.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 8
– Does US govt know more about Russian military than about Ukraine’s? NYT says yes.
– Can the Marshall Plan be repeated? The author of a fine history of the MP says no and explains it wasn’t just pouring money into Europe.
– What’s in retired SAIS prof Michael Mandelbaum’s new book? Tom Friedman tells.
– What was Jared Kushner doing while President Trump plotted Jan 6? Peter Baker of NYT says he was scouting real estate in Florida. NOTE: Baker and his wife Susan Glasser, who writes for the New Yorker, have a book about Trump coming out in September. Often reporters who write such books get criticized for saving nuggets for their books. It seems that these authors are in effect releasing chapters early in their respective publications.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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