Month: June 2022
Open Balkans is a dead letter
Colleague Ed Joseph tweeted an excellent reaction to Russian Foreign Minister’s endorsement of Open Balkans, which Belgrade and Tirana are advocating:
1/ Just as thanks go to #Putin for injecting life into @NATO, kudos to #SergeyLavrov for giving the kiss of death today to #OpenBalkan. This #Trump Administration brainchild advances the agenda of #Russia’s strategic partner in the region, #Serbia, under @avucic.
2/ #Russia’s main outlet in the country, Sputnik Serbia @rs_sputnik, has supported #OpenBalkans consistently. And why not?
3/ #OpenBalkan is open invitation for #Vucic to exploit #Serbia’s economic size for political advantage – free from political constraints or values of #EU. #OpenBalkan = ‘Serb World’ via the marketplace for Serbia’s smaller neighbors.
4/ Believing @avucic wants to join the #EU, US officials have bought into the notion that ‘#Trade Equals #Trust.’ What counts is the character of the regime you are trading with. Ask #Ukraine: up to 24 Feb, Russia has been a top trading partner of #Kyiv, for exports and imports.
5/ Ask #Japan, #SouthKorea or #Taiwan if trade has built trust with #China.
6/ Same story in the #Balkans. #Serbia is #Montenegro’s number one trading partner, for imports and exports – and #Belgrade is in last place in terms of trust. Montenegro PM’s recent endorsement of #OpenBalkan has exacerbated divisions in the country.
7/ Any polity in the #Balkans that faces direct threat from #Serbia is skeptical, if not suspicious of #OpenBalkan.
8/ As @EBRD has noted in its #Bosnia diagnostic, the core economic problems are political in nature. Just as #Putin has boosted @NATO, hopefully #Lavrov will boost the alternatives to #OpenBalkan that build a Regional Common Market on common #EU values.
My own reaction is less well put, in an interview for Kosovo’s RTV Dukagjini:
- What is your comment on the “Open Balkans”, do you think that Kosovo should be part of it?
A: The only circumstance in which Kosovo should even consider a proposition is if it is afforded equal status with the other sovereign states involved. That has not, I understand, been offered to Kosovo in Open Balkans, so the proposition should not even be considered.
2. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia has supported this initiative, what does this mean for the participating countries?
A: I think most of them will now have second thoughts about joining. Russia is not a welcome factor in the Balkans these days, with the exceptions of Serbia and Republika Srpska.
3. Do you think that such an initiative would be the right step for the Balkan countries?
A: Not really. Everything I’ve heard about Open Balkans suggests its activities could all be accomplished within the Berlin Process and SEFTA.
4. Do you think it is in the US interest if such an initiative is implemented?
A: I don’t but the US Government does. They get to call the shots.
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have said they will participate, does this mean that Kosovo is becoming isolated?
A: I’m not sure those positions will all be maintained. My guess is that under current circumstances, due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, Open Balkans is a dead letter.
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Stevenson’s army, June 7
– Swedish govt survived a no confidence vote after deal with Kurdish MP.
– WSJ has more on Erdogan.
– AMLO won’t attend this week’s summit.
– India may be part of the Quad, but Walter Russell Mead notes the many differences with US
– NYT notes troubles Ukrainians have learning new weapons.
– US is bombing al-Shabaab again. When the class talks abut Congress, I’ll want you to devise a new AUMF to handle this situation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 6
On this 78th anniversary of the allied invasion of France, YouTube has a short cut from a newsreel report later shown in US theaters and the audio of CBS radio’s reporting that day, supplemented with newsreel footage.
The Biden foreign policy team is mostly people he has known a long time. [BTW, the most collegial and leak-free team was Bush 41’s] They show consensus and cooperation but little policy innovation. If you don’t like what they agree on, you call it group think, as Peter Beinart does.
WaPo reports China is building a naval base in Cambodia.
Economist reports CCP now bans grumbling about the party.
WSJ reports the diplomatic missions the CIA director has been sent on.
Politico has background on this week’s Latin American summit
Morning Consult compares what China has been doing in the region..
AP questions how long Ukraine can fight.
And a tweet shows the battlefield.
New WSJ poll shows Americans are pretty sour about things.
BusinessInsider notes Hill staff can double dip, working for Congress and campaigns.
NYT’s Charles Blow has good career advice, applicable far beyond his journalism. I’d say the same to people working on the Hill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 5
– LA TImes says momentum is shifting toward Russia in Donbas.
– Ross Douthat says he can’t be a Ukraine hawk forever.
– Australian says China is winning in Asia.
– Together on a byline for the first time in decades, Woodward & Bernstein compare Nixon and Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 4
– Fred Kaplan sees a long struggle.
– In the FT, UK’s Lawrence Freedman says time is on Ukraine’s side.
– I’m more dubious, because —
-WaPo reports lower troop morale among Ukrainians.
– WaPo says Putin expects Ukraine support to weaken.
– And this from WSJ:
The problem for Kyiv—and for Western European governments proposing a cease-fire—is that Russia has seized much of the industrial heartlands of Ukraine’s east and vast tracts of its fertile agricultural land, while blocking Ukraine’s access to the sea, needed for exports.
That threatens to leave Ukraine as a barely viable state surviving on Western giving. Ukraine needs roughly $5 billion every month to cover essential government services and keep its battered economy functioning, officials in Kyiv have said, in addition to humanitarian aid and armaments.
– Estonia’s government has collapsed, in part because of Russia issues.
– Bloomberg says US is still revising National Security Strategy to account for Russian threat.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 3
– Ceasefire in Yemen and increased oil output paves way for Biden trip to Saudi Arabia.
– Politico explains the bureaucratic shuffles to manage China policy.
– CNA Russia expert says it’s down but not out in Ukraine. And on WOTR has numerous details on Russian military.
– Islamic State attacking beyond Afghanistan.
– State corrects website on Taiwan.
– More details on China tariff review.
– Facts wrong on critical infrastructure.
– DPRK heads disarmament group? What’s wrong with this picture?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
-Fred Kaplan enjoyed new Top Gun movie, but raises many technical points.
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