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Minimal results despite the effort

Here is the video of the event I did with the Gulf International Forum today on Biden’s Middle East trip, with Kristian Ulrichsen, Abdullah al Shayji, Anna Jacobs, and Douglas London. Below are my conclusions from the event.

President Biden’s trip to the Middle East last week was no great triumph. At best, it got the US and Saudi Arabia past a rough patch in their relations. The Americans were annoyed with the Saudis for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and for the Yemen war. It has caused a lot of civilian deaths and misery. The Saudis were annoyed that the Americans criticized the Kingdom’s human rights record and failed to defend it from Houthi attacks, launched from Yemen.

Mohammed bin Salman’s broad grin at the multilateral meeting in Jeddah tells you most of what you need to know about how it went. He got what he wanted, but so did Biden: an end to the rough patch.

The Israelis made it hard

Things might have gone better but for the first stops on Birden’s trip, in Jerusalem and Bethlehem. In Jersalem, Biden reiterated his declaration that he didn’t have to be Jewish to be a Zionist. Those are still fighting words in much of the Arab world. He also reiterated, as the Israelis wanted, the promise to use all elements of national power to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. The Gulf Arabs mostly share with Israel distaste for the Iran nuclear deal. But they definitely do not want war as they are well within firing range of Tehran’s missiles.

The Israelis gave Biden nothing at all on the Palestinian issue. He merely announced innocuous assistance to Palestinian hospitals. There was no hint at criticism of Israeli treatment of Palestinians or the occupation of the West Bank. He didn’t both mentioning the murder of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh. That confirmed the insincerity of American human rights concerns. Biden claimed to have raised the Khashoggi murder in private with MbS.

The Israelis talked up in advance of the visit security cooperation they claim is under way with Arab Gulf partners. No doubt Israel is providing internal security technology in the Gulf. There is likely also nascent air defense cooperation, at least of the intelligence-sharing sort. That is something the Saudis would not want to miss. But the Gulf Arabs don’t want that advertized. So they minimized both the present activities and future prospects.

The Saudis didn’t help either

The Saudis also made it clear that political normalization–in particular mutual recognition and establishment of embassies–will not happen until Israel agrees with the Palestinians on a two-state solution. Biden wants that. But he and everyone else understands that the conditions today are not ripe and the future possibility is dim.

Biden wanted something on oil production (and hence prices). But the Saudis are claiming they have limited spare capacity (one million barrels per day?) and can do little to help. They are also sticking with OPEC+, which gains leverage on oil prices with Russian participation.

The silver lining

Perhaps the most promising outcome of this Middle East trip was talk of more technological and economic cooperation. Saudi Arabia is a modernizing autocracy. It needs Western technology and investment to achieve its Vision 2030 goals, including diversification away from oil and gas as well as adjustment to climate change. The Americans can be helpful up to a point, though in the end most decisions in the economic arena are up to the private sector.