Day: August 23, 2022
Tempest in a license plate
President Vucic squirmed through a BBC interview this morning, denying the use of obviously inflammatory language he had just (and has repeatedly) used. He sounded unnerved and desperate to claim persecution of Kosovo Serbs. He also threatened military intervention to protect them. Unfortunately, I can’t find the interview on the Newshour website.
Kosovo Foreign Minister Gërvalla-Schwarz replied with focus on mutual recognition and the threat of Russian meddling in the aftermath of Moscow’s (assumed) defeat in Ukraine.
No, agreement does not appear imminent but it is not impossible
I’m often asked whether a “final” agreement is imminent. It certainly doesn’t appear so. Vucic has reverted to Milosevic-style claims of Serb victimhood and focus on the agreed (but not implemented) Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM). Gërvalla-Schwarz won’t settle for less than progress towards mutual recognition. In the particular case of license plates, that would mean a system that is strictly reciprocal.
But it is not really about license plates. It is about sovereignty. Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti is insisting on reciprocity because that is the rule between sovereign states. Vucic rejects reciprocity because that is the rule between sovereign states. This circle can, I think, be squared. The ASM Vucic wants will look different in the context of mutual recognition. The Kosovo constitutional court has already made clear it can have no executive functions. With recognition, ASM may be helpful to calming Kosovo’s northern municipalities. Without executive functions and with recognition it is not a likely threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty.
You can’t get there from here
The problem is the route to this solution is not clear. Neither Vucic nor Kurti has anything to gain in domestic politics from a settlement. Neither thinks he has to yield to gain advantage internationally.
Serbia has slid back into anocracy. Its democrats are divided and weak. Its filo-Russian ethnonationalists are strong. The media environment is less than free. Public discourse all too often focuses on the “Serbian world,” a remake of 1990s Greater Serbia, recycled via Putin’s “Russian world.” The Serbian world threatens the territorial integrity of not only Kosovo but also Bosnia and Montenegro. Belgrade mouths EU ambitions, but in practice it hedges its bets. It has strengthened ties with Russia and China, even during the Ukraine war. It has failed to align with many EU foreign policies, including Russia sanctions. Progress toward EU accession has slowed to a crawl.
Kosovo is a lively democracy, with free media and vigorous political competition. The electorate is impatient for an agreement with Serbia. Kosovars hope that would get the EU to fulfill its commitment to waiving visas, encourage five EU states to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, and enable faster progress towards NATO and EU accession. Still, Kurti has ample domestic support for insisting on reciprocity, which many Kosovars see as a sina qua non. He lacks international options. Neither Russia nor China is interested in befriending Kosovo. Of necessity, Kosovo enthusiastically bandwagons with NATO and the EU, which pressure Kurti mercilessly.
If all you have is lemons, make lemonade
So for now, no “final” agreement seems imminent. But interim ones should be possible. Serbia’s problem with Kosovo plates boils down to an “R,” for “republic.” Belgrade doesn’t want to accept for travel in Serbia plates that display that dread symbol of sovereignty and the documentation that comes with it.
Kosovars have spent ten years covering up the R and getting alternative documentation for the sake of not offending Serb sensibilities. At the same time, Belgrade wants Serbs in Kosovo to be able to keep their Serbian license plates and drive wherever they want. Reciprocity for that would mean Albanians who live in southern Serbia using Kosovo license plates to drive where they like in Serbia. How would that go over in Belgrade? If there really were any risk of violence against Serbs in Kosovo, Vucic wouldn’t be encouraging them to use Serbian license plates.
It is time for Vucic to recognize that this license plate tempest is unworthy of an EU aspirant. When living in Kosovo, Serbs should do as the Kosovars do. Drive with an R on their license plates. It’s not that hard.
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Bosnia’s citizens are its future
I have joined colleagues and friends in this Bosnian-initiated appeal to Secretary Blinken. I have reservations about the HiRep instituting constitutional changes, but I agree with the citizen-focused reforms proposed:
August 19, 2022
The Honorable Antony J. Blinken
Secretary of State
US Department of State
2201 C Street NW
Washington, DC 20520
Dear Secretary of State Blinken,
First and foremost, we are grateful for the pivotal role of the United States in ending the war and bloodshed in our country and brokering the Dayton Peace Agreement, which has kept peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina to date. Now, twenty-seven years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, that hard-won peace is threatened. Ironically, the very structures of the Dayton Peace Agreement have become an obstacle to Bosnia’s political survival. The mantra repeated by numerous international officials that Bosnia is composed of two entities and three constituent peoples has led us to the current existential crisis.
Due to the lack of international intervention, especially since 2006, Dayton’s structures have devolved into divisive ethnonationalist rhetoric and threats of secession that are destabilizing Bosnia and the region. Bosnian Serb member of the Presidency Milorad Dodik has threatened secession and consistently speaks of Bosnia as a failed State. He wields hate speech against Bosniaks and denies the Srebrenica genocide with impunity. Bosnian Croat party leader Dragan Čović, for his part, has threatened to boycott the election and form a third entity. Both separatist leaders have exploited the concept of “constituent peoples” so as to create further divisions and hatred. These separatist agendas have found their strongest support from the Russian Federation, whose Embassy in Sarajevo insisted in April 2021 that Bosnia fundamentally consists of two entities rather than a unified State.
So, it is clear that the time has come for a fundamental revisioning of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Constitution so that our country may fulfill the conditions to join NATO and the European Union. Once again, Secretary Blinken, we look to the United States for leadership, guidance, and assistance. We need support from the U.S. to help Bosnia transition from a system that gives priority to constituent peoples and ethnic divisions, to a nation of citizens with equal rights and dignity.
The first step in this process should be the genuine implementation of the five judgements of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR): Sejdić-Finci, Zornić, Pilav, Šlaku, and Pudarić and the retirement of BiH’s ethnic-based election model in favor of a model where the individual citizen of BiH is front and center of the electoral process with the guiding principle of “one citizen, one vote”. A person’s ethno-national identity should not be the sole determinant of governance processes. Implementation of these ECtHR judgements is crucial for Bosnia’s future.
Indeed, it was the expectation of the ECtHR judgements that the contested “constituent peoples” category and all ethnic-based discrimination be removed from the Bosnian Constitution. In Paragraph 43 of the ECtHR judgement in Zornić vs. Bosnia Herzegovina (Application 3681/06), the EU Court asks for both equality of all Bosnia’s citizens and the elimination of the “constituent people” as an outdated concept rooted only in the ceasefire signed in to stop genocide and ethnic cleansing:
The nature of the conflict was such that the approval of the “constituent peoples” was necessary to ensure peace (ibid.). However, now, more than eighteen years after the end of the tragic conflict, there could no longer be any reason for the maintenance of the contested constitutional provisions. The Court expects that democratic arrangements will be made without further delay.
The phrase “constituent peoples” is part of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA), but the way in which this term evolved does not conform to the spirit of the DPA. Further, Citizens and Others are also clearly noted in the Constitution, foreshadowing the reform and evolution that the Court references in the statement above.
Without a fundamental restructuring of the Dayton-rendered Constitution, change will not be possible for Bosnia. Hence, we, the resident as well as non-resident citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, together with our allies, dear friends and several NGOs from abroad, propose two ways the U.S. Government should constructively engage.
First, we encourage the U.S. to initiate and support a process of creating a completely new social contract for the 21st century in Bosnia. Instead of a complicated and extremely costly governance system involving the State government, two entities and 10 Cantons, governance would be transferred to Bosnia’s municipalities, resulting in a more locally based democratic model that is citizen-centered. The State of Bosnia would ensure the equitable provision of essential public services, including health care and education.
Second, we appeal to the U.S. to encourage the Office of the High Representative to use Bonn powers to implement constitutional and electoral reform across the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina in accordance with all judgements of the ECtHR including the judgement in the Zornić v. BiH Application. This would mean that any and all citizens would be eligible to stand for election for any office in their municipality, and would, in turn, be eligible to stand for election to represent their municipality in the national parliament. Finally, according to the terms of Bosnia’s restructured democracy, all citizens would elect one President from among a field of candidates.
Secretary Blinken: what we are proposing would represent a fundamental shift in American foreign policy with respect to reform of the election law in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Thus far, Mr. Palmer’s and Mr. Escobar’s diplomatic efforts have sought to appease the HDZ, an ethnonationalist political party seeking to insure the election of one of their members to the Presidency –a so-called “legitimate” Bosnian Croat representative. However, such a result would only further entrench ethnic divisions and produce a situation in which two members of the Presidency would be seeking to undermine Bosnia’s sovereignty. Thus we urge you to support genuine constitutional and electoral reform that will ensure a sustainable democratic political culture in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With international meddling in Bosnia’s internal affairs from Croatia, Serbia and the Russian Federation, and with the exacerbation of social divisions within Bosnia through the rise of hate speech, genocide denial, and the glorification of convicted war criminals, along with threats of secession and third entities, there is no time to lose.
Thank you for your consideration.
Sincerely,
Azra Zornić, citizen of Bosnia and Herzegovina, plaintiff before the European Court of Human Rights,
Jakob Finci, citizen of Bosnia and Herzegovina, plaintiff before the European Court of Human Rights,
Dervo Sejdić, citizen of Bosnia and Herzegovina, plaintiff before the European Court of Human Rights,
Zlatan Begić, Ph.D., applicant before the European Court of Human Rights (application pending), Professor of Constitutional Law, University of Tuzla,
Slaven Kovačević, Ph.D., applicant before the European Court of Human Rights (application pending), Assistant Professor of Political Systems and European Integration, University of Sarajevo,
David Pettigrew, Ph.D., Professor of Philosophy, Southern Connecticut State University, New Haven, CT, Member, Working Group for Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Aida Ibričević, Ph.D., Global Fellow – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO),
Bojan Šošić, ABD, psychologist, member of Presidency of Association of independent intellectuals “Circle 99”, Sarajevo,
Kurt Bassuener, Ph.D., Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council (DPC),
Hazim Bašić, Ph.D., member of Presidency of Association of independent intellectuals “Circle 99”, Professor, University of Sarajevo,
Samir Beharić, human rights activist, Research Officer at the Balkan Forum, PhD Candidate at the University of Bamberg,
Azra Berbić, human rights and peace building activist, Project Coordinator Center for Youth KVART Prijedor,
Vildana Bijedić, MSc. Mandala Academy Foundation,
Sonja Biserko, President of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia,
Janusz Bugajski, Senior Fellow, Jamestown Foundation, Washington, DC,
Tanya Domi, Assistant Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University,
Štefica Galić, Editor-in-Chief Tacno.net web portal,
Carole Hodge, Ph.D., Research Fellow Glasgow University (retired),
Marion Kraske, political scientist and analyst,
Adil Kulenović, President of Association of independent intellectuals “Circle 99”, Sarajevo,
Senadin Lavić, Ph.D., Professor, University of Sarajevo,
Satko Mujagić, Survivor, Omarska and Manjača Concentration Camps,
Dr. Emir Ramić, Director of the Institute for Research of Genocide Canada,
Daniel Serwer, Scholar, Middle East Institute; Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Institute, and Professor, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University,
Munira Subašić, President, Association of Mothers of Srebrenica and Žepa Enclaves,
ReSTART Bosnia and Herzegovina, informal group of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Samir Vranović, President, Association of Istina Kalinovik ’92
cc: The Honorable Jeanne Shaheen, United States Senator
The Honorable Bob Menendez, United States Senator
The Honorable Ben Cardin, United States Senator
The Honorable Chris Murphy, United States Senator
The Honorable Steve Cohen, United States Representative
The Honorable Greg Meeks, United States Representative
The Honorable William Keating, United States Representative
The Honorable Ann Wagner, United States Representative
The Honorable Michael J. Murphy, United States Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina
Karen Donfried, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. US Department of State
Dereck J. Hogan, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs
Molly Montgomery, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, US Department of State
Robert Hand, Senior Policy Adviser at the U.S. Helsinki Commission
For further information contact Azra Zornić, zornicazra@gmail.com, or David Pettigrew, depettigrew@gmail.com. Alternatively, correspondence may be directed to: David Pettigrew, Ph.D., Philosophy Department, Southern Connecticut State University, New Haven, CT, 06515, or to Bojan Šošić, Asocijacija nezavisnih intelektualaca “Krug 99”, Vrazova 1, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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Ukraine can be proud but not happy
Tomorrow will mark six months since Russia invaded Ukraine as well as Ukrainian independence day. The Ukrainians have a lot to be proud of. They have so far foiled Russian President Putin’s effort to deny the former Soviet republic its sovereignty. Realism should temper that pride. Russia has succeeded in taking control of Ukraine’s east and part of its south.
Territorial integrity compromised
The Russians have expanded, marginally but significantly, their control in Donbas. They have essentially taken all of Luhansk and threaten the part of Donetsk that remains in Ukrainian control. The Russians have also established their much-desired land bridge to Crimea through Mariupol and pressed northwest to take Kherson as well as threaten Mikolaiv and Odesa. Ukraine without the territory Russia now occupies would be a rump of its former self and face constant threats from its north (via Belarus), east, and south.
It isn’t over
So the war is far from over, despite the successful defense of Kiev and Kharkiv as well as the enormous losses inflicted on the demoralized and disorganized Russian army, air force, and navy. The Ukrainians lack the manpower to conduct a conventional offense but are using their supplies of NATO-origin artillery, drones, anti-tank missiles, and other weapons to batter the Russians and their supply lines.
Winter is coming. The Ukrainians will try to win before winter if the opportunity for a successful offensive presents itself. But by now the Russians are dug in and presumably understand their own weaknesses as well as the Ukrainians’ strengths. Only a sudden collapse of the Russian army would likely give the Ukrainians the opportunity they want.
The Russians also know Ukraine’s weaknesses
The Ukrainian will to fight may still be strong, but NATO solidarity has been waning. The US has been pumping in weapons and ammunition, but Europe is lagging:
Winter, when the Russians will no doubt cut off European antagonists’ gas supplies, will be hard for Germany in particular. The Germans have cut their dependency on Russia dramatically. They are also building gas stocks and may keep operating three nuclear plants beyond their scheduled closure at the end of this year. But that may not be enough to meet the country’s needs. Putin is banking on making life hard for Chancellor Scholz.
Prospects for negotiations are dim
The current situation looks like a mutually hurting stalemate, which is a condition for successful negotiations. But there is a second condition: a way out. Neither President Zelensky nor President Putin sees a way of ending the war with anything like the current territorial control. For Zelensky, it would be a plain defeat. Putin might be able to sell it at home, not least because he has little opposition and full control of the media. But his real aim is to end Ukraine as a separate state and incorporate it into the Russian Federation, as it was once a republic within the Soviet Union. Zelensky is captive of his country’s aspirations. Putin is captive of his own ambition.
Kiev and Moscow did manage to come to agreement on safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports. That agreement seems to be working so far, but it won’t have a big impact on world grain supplies. For Putin the main purpose is to keep the Africa and the Middle East from abandoning their relative neutrality and going over to the West. The revenue is useful to Ukraine, mainly to keep its farmers from throwing in their lot with the Russian occupiers.
Expanding the scope of negotiations beyond grain exports will be difficult. Even normal humanitarian exchanges of civilians and prisoners of war don’t appear to be happening. The Russians are shipping unwilling Ukrainians to Russia, de-populating the territory Moscow plans to keep. How they will repopulate it is anyone’s guess. There is no excess of people in Russia. Ukraine may be more attractive than Siberia, but the low population density in the latter is already a big problem for Russia.
The best that can be said
The Ukraine war has displaced at least 14 million people, half of whom have fled abroad, while another 13 million are estimated to be trapped in unsafe areas. That makes well over half of Ukraine’s pre-war population of over 44 million. The humanitarian response has been strong, but how long it will last is another question. The number of casualties is unclear, but is certainly in multiple tens of thousands on both sides.
The best that can be said is that Europe has awakened to the threat from Russia. The Baltic states and Poland are especially keen on a Russian defeat in Ukraine, because otherwise they might be next. Germany has also seen the threat. Sweden and Finland have abandoned neutrality and are joining NATO, if Turkey allows. The softer parts of Europe include Hungary, which already has a filo-Russian government, and Italy, which may get one after its election September 25. France and Turkey have at times seemed to waiver, but more in the interest of serving as mediators than actually supporting Russia.
The Ukrainians are going to need more of the courage they have already demonstrated. The U.S. and Europe need to keep them well-supplied. Proud Ukraine is not a happy Ukraine. This war is from over.
Slava Ukraini!
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Stevenson’s army, August 23
– Retiring Sen. Pat Leahy [D-VT] laments changes in politics and the Senate. A GOP friend of mine chatted with him in Nov., 2020 and reported he said, “We don’t talk to each other any more.”
-A new NBC poll has a lot of surprises; one is that “threats to democracy” is now the “most important issue facing the country,” ahead of jobs and the cost of living. [Scroll to the end]
– FP says most of Indo-Pacific sides with Beijing.
– FP says Poland and Hungary have a falling out.
– NYT says Ukraine is siphoning humanitarian aid from other countries.
– Politico has more details on classified materials at Mar-a-Lago.
– Politico also reports WH is at odds with intelligence community over reducing classifications.
– WaPo has a friendly profile of SecState Blinken.
– A California prof says VP Pence had no authority to summon troops to protect Capitol.
– Fearing attacks in civilian areas, US warns Americans to leave Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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