Tempest in a license plate

President Vucic squirmed through a BBC interview this morning, denying the use of obviously inflammatory language he had just (and has repeatedly) used. He sounded unnerved and desperate to claim persecution of Kosovo Serbs. He also threatened military intervention to protect them. Unfortunately, I can’t find the interview on the Newshour website.

Kosovo Foreign Minister Gërvalla-Schwarz replied with focus on mutual recognition and the threat of Russian meddling in the aftermath of Moscow’s (assumed) defeat in Ukraine.

No, agreement does not appear imminent but it is not impossible

I’m often asked whether a “final” agreement is imminent. It certainly doesn’t appear so. Vucic has reverted to Milosevic-style claims of Serb victimhood and focus on the agreed (but not implemented) Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM). Gërvalla-Schwarz won’t settle for less than progress towards mutual recognition. In the particular case of license plates, that would mean a system that is strictly reciprocal.

But it is not really about license plates. It is about sovereignty. Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti is insisting on reciprocity because that is the rule between sovereign states. Vucic rejects reciprocity because that is the rule between sovereign states. This circle can, I think, be squared. The ASM Vucic wants will look different in the context of mutual recognition. The Kosovo constitutional court has already made clear it can have no executive functions. With recognition, ASM may be helpful to calming Kosovo’s northern municipalities. Without executive functions and with recognition it is not a likely threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty.

You can’t get there from here

The problem is the route to this solution is not clear. Neither Vucic nor Kurti has anything to gain in domestic politics from a settlement. Neither thinks he has to yield to gain advantage internationally.

Serbia has slid back into anocracy. Its democrats are divided and weak. Its filo-Russian ethnonationalists are strong. The media environment is less than free. Public discourse all too often focuses on the “Serbian world,” a remake of 1990s Greater Serbia, recycled via Putin’s “Russian world.” The Serbian world threatens the territorial integrity of not only Kosovo but also Bosnia and Montenegro. Belgrade mouths EU ambitions, but in practice it hedges its bets. It has strengthened ties with Russia and China, even during the Ukraine war. It has failed to align with many EU foreign policies, including Russia sanctions. Progress toward EU accession has slowed to a crawl.

Kosovo is a lively democracy, with free media and vigorous political competition. The electorate is impatient for an agreement with Serbia. Kosovars hope that would get the EU to fulfill its commitment to waiving visas, encourage five EU states to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, and enable faster progress towards NATO and EU accession. Still, Kurti has ample domestic support for insisting on reciprocity, which many Kosovars see as a sina qua non. He lacks international options. Neither Russia nor China is interested in befriending Kosovo. Of necessity, Kosovo enthusiastically bandwagons with NATO and the EU, which pressure Kurti mercilessly.

If all you have is lemons, make lemonade

So for now, no “final” agreement seems imminent. But interim ones should be possible. Serbia’s problem with Kosovo plates boils down to an “R,” for “republic.” Belgrade doesn’t want to accept for travel in Serbia plates that display that dread symbol of sovereignty and the documentation that comes with it.

Kosovars have spent ten years covering up the R and getting alternative documentation for the sake of not offending Serb sensibilities. At the same time, Belgrade wants Serbs in Kosovo to be able to keep their Serbian license plates and drive wherever they want. Reciprocity for that would mean Albanians who live in southern Serbia using Kosovo license plates to drive where they like in Serbia. How would that go over in Belgrade? If there really were any risk of violence against Serbs in Kosovo, Vucic wouldn’t be encouraging them to use Serbian license plates.

It is time for Vucic to recognize that this license plate tempest is unworthy of an EU aspirant. When living in Kosovo, Serbs should do as the Kosovars do. Drive with an R on their license plates. It’s not that hard.